“Labour has forged a 12-point lead over the Conservatives for the first time in almost a decade, according to a Guardian/ICM poll. Ed Miliband’s party now stands at 41% of the vote, up three points on ICM’s January figure, and the Tories are on just 29%, having slipped back four from 33% last month. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats have sunk two points, to 13%, whereas Ukip has inched up three to 9% – setting a new record for Nigel Farage’s anti-European outfit in the Guardian/ICM series. The Labour lead is the biggest – and the Conservative vote-share the smallest – in the polling series since May 2003.”
Here’s how that looks as a chart:
Whilst this is welcome, it’s not entirely clear what would have caused such an upswing in Labour’s fortunes over the last month – or as Patrick Wintour notes:
“It is hard to pinpoint a set of events in the past month that justifies a surge in Labour support. Ed Miliband has had a relatively low profile in the new year, while David Cameron has played his populist card on an EU referendum. Those in Downing Street who thought the prime minister’s move would not only quieten the backbenches but lead to a poll boost have been frustrated. Dissent on the Tory benches over Cameron’s leadership and the issue of gay marriage has continued unabated.”
Wintour also points Guardian readers to Anthony Painter’s LabourList piece on the fragility of Labour’s poll lead – which you can read here.