LabourList readers don’t expect Miliband to win a majority in 2015

28th January, 2014 3:42 pm

There’s decidedly mixed news for Ed Miliband from the latest LabourList weekly survey. Whilst the vast majority of you believe that Labour will be the largest party come 2015 – less than half believe that Miliband will win a majority next May. Only 40% of LabourList readers think that a Labour majority is the most likely outcome next year, edged out by 42% who believe that it’s most likely that Labour will be the largest party. 4% of LabourList readers think the Tories will get a majority, but 10% think the current status quo – Tories as the largest party – will continue.

labour win majority survey january

The Labour leadership will be hoping that pessimism isn’t something that stops activists from campaigning on the ground in the run up to the election – and that it will abate as we get closer to election day. But this survey was entirely conducted before recent polls that suggest Labour’s lead may be narrowing, and largely after Ed Balls’ 50p tax announcement.

In better news for the Labour leader, Ed Miliband PMQs new, quiet style at PMQs is proving popular with LabourList readers. 53% think that it makes Miliband look “serious and statesmanlike. Only 24% believe that it’s a bad idea and makes Miliband look like he’s losing the argument.

Miliband PMQs performance

And LabourList readers were supportive of the major welfare announcement which Rachel Reeves revealed last week. 74% of LabourList readers think that plans for a “Basic Skills Test” followed by training if necessary for those entering unemployment is a good idea. Only 16% thought this was a bad idea.

Reeves skills test wins backingThanks to the 699 readers who voted in our weekly survey between Friday 24th and Sunday 26th. There’ll be another survey on friday…

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  • I just don’t see him as Prime Minister. He just comes over as a well-meaning amateur, but he doesn’t really understand ordinary ppl.

  • Bik Byro

    Interesting(ish) from an academic point of view,but Labour List readers are not exactly representative of the general electorate, so this survey has little or no real value.

    • rekrab

      K? “Labour List readers are not exactly representative of the general electorate?” Aren’t they? since when?

      • Paolo Caldato

        Because most of the electorate (i) does not vote Labour and (ii) does not read Labour List.

      • Bik Byro

        Further to Paolo’s excellent observation, Labour List readers will have a way higher than average interest in politics than the average, as demonstrated by the fact that they take time out to discourse on a political website.

    • robertcp

      I do not think that it is claiming to be representative of the general electorate or scientific in any way. It is only representative of the Labour List readers that responded.

  • kle4

    Labour List readers are clearly a pessimistic lot.

  • robertcp

    82% think that Labour will be the biggest party. That is not particularly pessimistic when the result in 2010 is considered.

    • Paolo Caldato

      82% of the largely Labour-supporting readers of Labour List think Labour will be the biggest party.
      In other news, apparently most bears poo in woods, apart from bears that do not live in woods.

      • Bik Byro

        haha, spot on !

      • BillFrancisOConnor

        Most of the people who read Labour List are Labour hating trolls.

        • Steve Stubbs

          Evidence? As you normally say ….

          • BillFrancisOConnor

            Contrary evidence?

  • Mr Arthur Cook

    Labour still has one major electoral asset.
    Michael Gove’s mouth.

  • RWP

    Disappointing for the leadership, as this shows a bit of a lack of confidence EdM’s ability to win a decisive mandate. Voting may even be more optimistic than the reality if people gave a more positive answer than they believe, based on not wanting to contribute to bad news for the party.

    We are clearly NOT in a pre-1997 situation where the government was going down in flames; if anything, this will be much more a re-run of 1992. There’s everything to play for but Labour today lacks momentum, just as Kinnock did 20 years ago.

  • Gary Hills

    Labour can win an overall majority and its disapoitng so many cannot see how well Labour is doing. The Tories have a huge mountain to climb they also have UKIP which will take around 2 million votes of them even if they poll 5/6% of the vote. It possible they may get 9% on election day and despite recent assumptions that will still hurt the Tories more..

    The Tories campaign based has collapsed and they have less people now as activist than they did in the run up to 2010. The Lib Dems will be lucky to hold on to 20 MPs and recent talk of some of coaitions with them is defeatist and just wrong.

    Labour is on course to win, yes there is much more to be done to secure that win but it will not be helped by people having negative views towards such an outcome. Just because the Tories went into coalllion witht the Lib Dems it does not mean we have to and people need to get more positive because it harms momentum and the wider public can pick up on the negativity.

    Labour can win as Labour and it can win outright.

  • Grytpype

    ‘In better news for the Labour leader, Ed Miliband PMQs new, quiet style at PMQs is proving popular with LabourList readers. 53% think that it makes Miliband look “serious and statesmanlike”

    What a radical party we have become, this just the kind of stuff that created the Welfare State and NHS. Attlee must be revolving at high speed in his grave.

  • Hamish Kennedy

    Its very good news it may well encourage LL reader to get off the armchairs and out on the streets to ensure victory. I think that the leadership are moving in the right direction, this is probably the clearest Leader we had since Wilson ( and I did not vote for him ). Time and time again new policy launches have been received well by the country and the pace of the release is increasing. Just wait for the Euro Elections to see the Tory’s implode and the Libdems disappear.

  • MRSHUTE

    But how many Labour List readers want Miliband to win a majority at the next election?

    • robertcp

      That could be an interesting question for the next survey!

  • Terry Swift

    Labour will not win the next election unless it listens to us majority Labour supporters (possibly) and give us a vote on the EU and halt immigration.

    • BillFrancisOConnor

      Another person who’s nicked a crystal ball from Mystic Meg?

  • swatnan

    Ed has to appear more statesmanlike otherwise he won’t win, despite what the polls say.

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