The 82 Tory MPs who would lose to Labour if the Ashcroft marginal poll is replicated next year

25th May, 2014 11:16 am

Yesterday’s Ashcroft poll that showed a 6.5% to Labour in the battleground marginals has put a spring in the step of many Labour staffers, activists and candidates after a mixed bag of results on Thursday – and ahead of a tough looking night of European election results.

Perhaps the most eye catching claim from Ashcroft as he announced his polling was that if the swing he’s recorded in the battleground seats he polled is replicated across the full set, Labour would take 83 seats that the Tories won in 2010. Taking away Corby which Labour has already taken in a by-election, that means there are 82 Tory MPs who would lose their seats if the Ashcroft poll comes true. That would deliver a 32 seat majority for Labour, and that’s before counting gains from the Lib Dems.

Tory rosette 2014-04-22 11-42-50

However, it’s important to remember that this is only a poll – albeit a very thorough one. On Thursday there were actual elections that showed us falling back thanks to UKIP in areas like Thurrock, Basildon and Great Yarmouth that the Ashcroft poll would see us winning next year. It does suggest though – as Labour staffers were arguing ahead of election day – that the focus on marginals is seeing some rewards.

So which Tory MPs would lose their seats?

Frontbenchers who are at risk: Edward Timpson, PUS Children and Families; Esther McVey, Minister for Employment; Stephen Crabb, PUS for Wales and Whip; Brandon Lewis, PUS CLG; David Mundell, PUS Scotland; Nicky Morgan, Financial Sec to Treasury and Minister for Women; Kris Hopkims, Minister for Housing; Anna Soubry, Minister for Defence Personnel, Welfare and Veterans.

Backbenchers who are at risk: Robert Halfon, Jacob Rees Mogg, Charlie Elphicke and Chloe Smith.

Here’s the full list:

Region Seat Held by Lab Con Winner Lab Maj
Eastern SOUTH BASILDON & EASTTHURROCK Stephen Metcalfe MP Con 37.5% 37.4% Lab 0.1%
West Midlands BURTON Andrew Griffiths Con 38.4% 38.0% Lab 0.3%
West Midlands RUGBY Mark Pawsey Con 37.9% 37.5% Lab 0.4%
South East READING WEST Alok Sharma Con 37.0% 36.7% Lab 0.4%
South East CRAWLEY Henry Smith Con 38.8% 38.3% Lab 0.5%
Yorkshire and Humber CALDER VALLEY Craig Whittaker Con 33.5% 32.9% Lab 0.6%
London FINCHLEY & GOLDERS GREEN Mike Freer Con 40.2% 39.5% Lab 0.7%
London BATTERSEA Jane Ellison Con 41.6% 40.8% Lab 0.8%
South West BRISTOL NORTH WEST Charlotte Leslie Con 32.4% 31.5% Lab 1.0%
North West CREWE & NANTWICH Edward Timpson Con 40.5% 39.3% Lab 1.2%
Yorkshire and Humber BRIGG & GOOLE Andrew Percy Con 39.6% 38.4% Lab 1.3%
Wales PRESELI PEMBROKESHIRE Stephen Crabb Con 37.7% 36.3% Lab 1.4%
London ILFORD NORTH Lee Scott Con 40.7% 39.2% Lab 1.5%
Wales ABERCONWY Guto Bebb Con 31.0% 29.3% Lab 1.7%
Eastern HARLOW Robert Halfon Con 40.2% 38.4% Lab 1.8%
West Midlands STOURBRIDGE Margot James Con 38.2% 36.2% Lab 2.1%
West Midlands STAFFORD Jeremy Lefroy Con 39.5% 37.4% Lab 2.1%
Eastern PETERBOROUGH Stewart Jackson Con 36.0% 33.9% Lab 2.2%
North West SOUTH RIBBLE Lourraine Fullbrook Con (NB standing down) 41.2% 39.0% Lab 2.2%
Yorkshire and Humber COLNE VALLEY Jason McCartney Con 32.9% 30.5% Lab 2.4%
South East DOVER Charlie Elphicke Con 40.0% 37.5% Lab 2.5%
West Midlands DUDLEY SOUTH Chris Kelly Con 39.5% 36.6% Lab 2.9%
Eastern GREAT YARMOUTH Brandon Lewis Con 39.7% 36.6% Lab 3.1%
South West NORTH EAST SOMERSET Jacob Ress Mogg Con 38.2% 34.8% Lab 3.4%
Yorkshire and Humber CLEETHORPES Martin Vickers Con 39.1% 35.6% Lab 3.4%
North West ROSSENDALE & DARWEN Jake Berry Con 38.7% 35.3% Lab 3.5%
South East MILTON KEYNES SOUTH Iain Stewart Con 38.7% 35.1% Lab 3.6%
East Midlands HIGH PEAK Andrew Bingham Con 38.1% 34.4% Lab 3.7%
Eastern NORWICH NORTH Chloe Smith Con 37.9% 34.1% Lab 3.8%
Scotland DUMFRIESSHIRE, CLYDESDALE & TWEEDDALE (W) David Mundell Con 35.4% 31.5% Lab 3.9%
Wales VALE OF GLAMORGAN Alum Cairns Con 39.4% 35.3% Lab 4.2%
Wales CARMARTHEN WEST & SOUTH PEMBROKESHIRE Simon Hart Con 39.2% 34.6% Lab 4.5%
Eastern WATFORD Richard Harrington Con 33.2% 28.4% Lab 4.8%
Yorkshire and Humber ELMET & ROTHWELL Alec Shelbrooke Con 41.0% 36.1% Lab 4.9%
Eastern STEVENAGE Stephen McPartland Con 39.9% 34.9% Lab 5.0%
North West PENDLE Andrew Stephenson Con 37.4% 32.4% Lab 5.0%
London EALING CENTRAL & ACTON Angie Bray Con 36.6% 31.5% Lab 5.1%
South West SOUTH SWINDON Robert Buckland Con 40.8% 35.3% Lab 5.5%
West Midlands WARWICK & LEAMINGTON Chris White Con 41.9% 36.1% Lab 5.8%
London HARROW EAST Bob Blackman Con 44.1% 38.2% Lab 5.9%
East Midlands LOUGHBOROUGH Nicky Morgan Con 41.0% 35.1% Lab 5.9%
West Midlands CANNOCK CHASE Aidan Burley Con 39.6% 33.6% Lab 6.0%
North West WIRRAL WEST Eather McVey Con 42.8% 36.0% Lab 6.8%
Yorkshire and Humber KEIGHLEY Kris Hopkins Con 42.3% 35.4% Lab 6.8%
West Midlands WORCESTER Robin Walker Con 39.9% 33.0% Lab 6.9%
London CROYDON CENTRAL Gavin Barwell Con 40.0% 33.0% Lab 7.0%
North West CITY OF CHESTER Stephen Mosley Con 41.6% 34.1% Lab 7.5%
North West BLACKPOOL NORTH & CLEVELEYS Paul Maynard Con 43.0% 35.3% Lab 7.7%
East Midlands EREWASH Jessica Lee Con 40.7% 33.0% Lab 7.8%
South West KINGSWOOD Chris Skidmore Con 41.8% 33.9% Lab 7.9%
North West BURY NORTH David Nuttall Con 41.7% 33.7% Lab 8.0%
East Midlands NORTHAMPTON NORTH Michael Ellis Con 35.8% 27.6% Lab 8.2%
South West GLOUCESTER Richard Graham Con 41.7% 33.4% Lab 8.2%
West Midlands NUNEATON Marcus Jones Con 43.4% 35.0% Lab 8.4%
West Midlands HALESOWEN & ROWLEY REGIS James Morris Con 43.1% 34.7% Lab 8.4%
Eastern IPSWICH Ben Gummer Con 41.2% 32.6% Lab 8.6%
South East HASTINGS & RYE Amber Rudd Con 43.6% 34.6% Lab 9.0%
London ENFIELD NORTH Nick de Bois Con 45.0% 35.8% Lab 9.2%
South East HOVE Mike Weatherley Con 39.5% 30.2% Lab 9.3%
London BRENTFORD & ISLEWORTH Mary Macleod Con 40.1% 30.7% Lab 9.4%
Yorkshire and Humber PUDSEY Stuart Andrew Con 41.6% 32.0% Lab 9.6%
South East BRIGHTON KEMPTOWN Simon Kirby Con 41.4% 31.5% Lab 9.9%
Eastern BEDFORD Richard Fuller Con 42.4% 32.4% Lab 10.0%
North West WARRINGTON SOUTH David Mowat Con 39.5% 29.3% Lab 10.2%
Yorkshire and Humber DEWSBURY Simon Reevell Con 38.7% 28.5% Lab 10.2%
South West PLYMOUTH SUTTON & DEVONPORT Oliver Colvile Con 38.2% 27.8% Lab 10.4%
East Midlands LINCOLN Karl McCartney Con 41.7% 31.0% Lab 10.7%
North West WEAVER VALE Graham Evans Con 42.8% 32.0% Lab 10.7%
South West STROUD Neil Carmichael Con 45.1% 34.3% Lab 10.8%
North CARLISLE John Stevenson Con 43.8% 32.8% Lab 11.0%
North West MORECAMBE & LUNESDALE David Morris Con 45.9% 34.8% Lab 11.0%
West Midlands WOLVERHAMPTON SOUTHWEST Paul Uppal Con 45.5% 34.2% Lab 11.3%
Eastern WAVENEY Peter Aldous Con 45.2% 33.7% Lab 11.5%
East Midlands AMBER VALLEY Nigel Mills Con 43.9% 32.1% Lab 11.8%
North West LANCASTER & FLEETWOOD Eric Ollerenshaw Con 41.8% 29.6% Lab 12.2%
East Midlands BROXTOWE Anna Soubry Con 44.8% 32.5% Lab 12.3%
North STOCKTON SOUTH James Wharton Con 44.8% 32.4% Lab 12.3%
East Midlands SHERWOOD Mark Spencer Con 45.3% 32.7% Lab 12.6%
Wales CARDIFF NORTH Jonathan Evans Con 43.6% 31.0% Lab 12.6%
London HENDON Matthew Offord Con 48.6% 35.8% Lab 12.8%
Eastern THURROCK Jackie Doyle-Price Con 43.1% 30.3% Lab 12.8%
West Midlands NORTH WARWICKSHIRE Dan Byles Con 46.6% 33.7% Lab 12.9%

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  • Hamish Dewar

    The list is confusing. What does ‘winner’ and ‘lab maj’ mean?
    The majority shown is surely the current Tory majority.
    And how does a 6.5% swing to Labour signal curtains for a Tory with a 12% majority?
    Maybe I’m reading the list wrong.

    • JGibbon

      The average swing across all the constituencies polled is 6.5%, each constituency would have had a different swing.
      The leftmost figure is the Labour vote, the central figure is the Tory vote and the rightmost figure the difference between the two.
      Presumably any constituencies which would still have a Tory majority have been removed, hence why all the winners are Labour.

    • BillFrancisOConnor

      A 6.5% swing to Labour means an increase in the Labour vote of 6.5% and a reduction of 6.5% in the Tory vote- making a total of 13 %.

  • leslie48

    How can anyone take this nonsense seriously? ; we have just had a real poll that only gives us a 2% lead. If you do not like the real results look away now. Get real it’s what happens that counts not what people say on the phone. Look what happened close to the real poll – the Labour polling drifted downwards in the weeks before and for the first time in two years indicated a hung parliament. Swindon and Basildon are the realities we have to deal with…

    • Paul Adams

      I agree this poll seems almost too good to be true, I’ve raised the possibility on the UKPR website that Ashcroft might me deviously trying to shore up Ed M’s position in the short run as the Tories think he is there secret weapon in the long run, but I was only being half-serious!
      More likely the poll is accurate as a snapshot of how people say they will vote now but there will be some drift back to the Tories at GE2015.
      Even so, still very good for us however you slice and dice it and re Swindon, did you know Labour actually did top the poll in the wards that make up the marginal Swindon South constituency?

  • NBeale

    Yes but everybody knows that the Ashcroft “results” won’t be replicated at the GE. They were telephone polls done between the 31st March and the 18th May and even since since then the Labour Lead has reduced considerably. It was about 4% over that period and it now about 2%. Come the GE the Conservatives will almost certainly be 2-12% ahead.

    • Paul Adams

      “Come the GE the Conservatives will almost certainly be 2-12% ahead.”

      What would we do without the Tory trolls who post on Labourlist!

    • BillFrancisOConnor

      ‘Come the GE the Conservatives will almost certainly be 2-12% ahead’.

      How the f**k do you know that? You can see into the future can you? The witch doctor pop ’round this afternoon did he? While you were sticking pins in Ed Miliband dolls did he give you a potion that sent you into a trance and enabled you to see into the future? The nation should be told.

    • BillFrancisOConnor

      It’s OK now I understand why you’ve written this tripe. Here’s what you wrote a few days ago:

      ‘Most of the Cabinet. Intellectually probably Hague, Willetts and Letwin are the most outstanding. Grieve is by any standards a first-rate lawyer, Sayed Javid is enormously talented and there are too many to name on the back benches and junior ranks. Hammond and Hunt built significant businesses before going into politics. Claire Perry and Sarah Wollaston are very good, as is Andea Ledstrom.

      And by the standards of politicians Justine Greening is exceptionally able’.

      With regard to the aforementioned shower of sh*te I’ve seen more able, talented and intelligent things at the bottom of ponds.

    • Chilbaldi

      “the Conservatives will almost certainly be 2-12% ahead”

      A prediction right out of the horoscope school there – an improbably broad declaration which means you can say ‘I told you so’ in a vast range of actual outcomes.

      Let me counter your prection: I predict that the Conservatives will achieve between 20-40% of the national vote share.

      • MonkeyBot5000

        A prediction right out of the horoscope school there…

        I’m no great fan of Lord Ashcroft of Belize, but I agree that you’ve got to give him props for his polling. He seems more interested in gaining accurate information than flattering information.

        • treborc1

          But why? I mean what’s in it for Ashcroft, we all know he does not like Cameron or Cameron obsession with Gay marriage .

          But why has a life time Tory who gave so much now seems to be against the Tories, is it because they did not vote him as leader or the bloke he backed.

          I think I’d rather take what Kinnock thinks before Ashcroft and his polls.

  • Chilbaldi

    I always want Labour to achieve a 1997 style stonking majority. Having said that, of the above Tories I’d be most upset if we lost Edward Timpson and Robert Halfon. Timpson is a great person to have in the house, always comes across as intelligent and reasonable, and is an able minister – especially drawing from his experience of growing up in a house where his parents fostered about 100 children. Halfon is a centrist, and the more Tory centrists the better.

    Would be delighted if Esther McVey and Aidan Burley lost their seats.

  • Rex Hale

    Amusing, but irrelevant because, as we all know, these results are highly unlikely to be replicated at the GE one year from now. Let’s not waste our time on this sort of fluff.

  • John Bell

    Call me completely innocent, ……………… but, ……..
    Has ‘someone’ failed to mention the ‘elephant in the room’ take account of UKIP ……. who are EVEN further to the RIGHT than those representatives of Toffocracy Towers (in BOTH the Tory AND Labour Parties , but who will effect the votes cast for BOTH parties!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Unless, of course, Labour AND the Tories can convince the electorate that they are NO LONGER both a set of fraudulent crooks!
    The OTHER ‘policy’ might be to try to eradicate ‘evidence’ of the expenses/allowances ‘fiddle money’ thefts of the LAST Fraudsters’ Parliament! BEFORE the next election!
    Wait a MO! A couple of Tories are TRYING this!!!!
    While the Labour Party sits on its hands! ……. in the hope that THEY too might be able to ‘fiddle’ the evidence’ of past crimes, perchance|?
    I humbly ….ask….. and note!!!

x

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