Miliband’s message to Scottish voters ahead of referendum: Labour will win next year

3rd September, 2014 9:31 am

Ed Miliband will head up to Scotland tomorrow to campaign against Scottish independence with a simple message to voters: Labour will win the election next year.

VOTE_NO scottish independence referendum Scotland Labour

According to this morning’s Times Red Box email, Labour strategists now believe that this has “become the key to halting the advance of Alex Salmond”. Worries have set in amongst pro-Unionists as polls show a tighter finish than predicted and there is a growing belief that Labour voters could be the key to winning the vote. A YouGov poll yesterday showed that support for independence among Labour supporters had grown from 18% to 30% in the space of a month.

The cause for this shift appears to be because Labour supporters believe another Tory victory on the cards in 2015, and that a vote for independence is the easiest way to avoid it. One Labour MP reportedly told The Times:

“Scottish Labour has not stepped up to the plate. The people must believe that we are going to win at Westminster; otherwise they may opt for an independent Labour Scotland. That is the danger.”

While a No vote still leads in every poll, the gap is down to six points (53% to 47%) and the betting odds for an independence victory have halved in the space of a week. However, as Peter Kellner of YouGov sets out, a Better Together victory is still the likeliest outcome – it is just that a Yes triumph is now a possibility, whereas previously that did not appear to be the case. Although he also points out that a No vote is now unlikely to be by a big enough margin to deliver a knockout blow to the independence movement.

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  • Mukkinese

    I wish he were telling the rest of us the same message too.

    It seems that Labour’s Vote share is softening.

    Okay, the Tories still have a mountain to climb to gain a workable majority, but the coming campaign will be dirty and sustained and will sway some floaters.

    Things are very close right now and even a dedicated despiser of Tory policy, like me, cannot work up a massive amount of enthusiasm for what Labour are offering as an alternative.

    Where is the message? Where is the hope? The right is still vastly outweighing the left on T.V. appearances and they have barely even begun…

  • Doug Smith

    “Labour will win the election next year.”

    And then enforce Tory/EU austerity.

  • Ash McGregor

    Scottish Labour has been telling the leadership his for months. Awfully late in the day to be pushing this message

  • Stan

    “Scottish Labour has not stepped up to the plate”

    Because Scottish Labour is split into two camps and only the blinkered politicians are failing to see the damage this is doing to the party north of the border.

    This vote is not about Alex Salmond, it’s not a Holyrood election, this is about Scottish independence. Whatever the outcome of the vote on the 18th the Labour leadership have basically ensured an increased SNP vote at both the General Election in 2015 and in the Holyrood elections in 2016. As an activist i can also tell you there’s no real enthusiasm for Labour in England on the doorstep either.

    • Mukkinese

      Because you have been everywhere and talked to everyone.

      If Scotland votes no, which is still the likeliest result, many SNP voters will switch to Labour in the General Election. One thing we do know, for sure, is that they do not want another Tory government…

      • Stan

        “many SNP voters will switch to Labour in the General Election. ”

        And you know this because you have been everywhere and talked to everyone?

  • Cassandra

    So, what? It is new Labour which has created the run of Labour voters to the Yes campaigners. They have nowhere else to go.They cannot vote Tory or Lib Dem that would be insane, so they have been given no choice for those who wish a fair and equal society. It is New Labour (my greatest achievement- Margaret Thatcher) which created the surge in SNP voters and Thatcherism which is followed by all parties which will lead to the break up of the UK.

    • robertcp

      Quite. Some Labour supporters seem to live on a different planet to everybody else. I hope that Labour sneaks in next year but I have very low expectations for any Labour-led government.

  • Grouchy Oldgit

    It is far from certain Labour will win next year, esp given unpredictability of UKIP effect. Even if this uninspiring Labour mob wins sooner or later Scottish people will get another Tory gov’t they didn’t vote for. In the (unlikely?) event Scotland is bold enough to grasp this opportunity it will be interesting to see how many disenchanted English migrate north to the exciting new Tory-free nation.

    • Steve Stubbs

      None.

      • Redshift1

        I’d be tempted if Scotland goes independent and Labour fail to get back into government next year.

        • David Lewis

          And if the weather improved and the food got better and there were fewer drunks about.

      • keggsie

        I don’t agree. I intend to if I can. Unless we have a revolution and gas all the Tories.

  • fran cullen

    All power to the YES vote!!!!

  • MrSauce

    There were those who thought Gordon’s presence would boost the Unity campaign.
    And now Milliband has joined in….

  • markmyword49

    Are those Ed’s crossed fingers I see hidden behind his back?

  • Labour voters are not moving in favour of a Yes vote simply because they think Labour will lose in 2015 but because even it wins they doubt that it will change much. Miliband has to do far more than reassure them that Labour will win. Salmond is offering a vison of a Scotland free from neo-Thatcherism whilst Labour’ fails to summon up much vision at all.

  • Timmo111

    How does young Edward know this, tea leaves ? crystal ball ? the nation must be told.

  • keggsie

    It isn’t just Scotland that needs Devo Max. The rest of the country including so called English regions need it as well.

  • Labour can win next year – and the point is? Just remind me again of how many council houses Labour built between 1997 and 2010. Then when you have done that, you can jog my memory about the number of industries that were taken into public ownership. Finally, tell me about just how Labour reversed the previous government’s privatisation schemes.

    You see, from my point of view, Labour was only interested in the middle class, not the people living on the council estates and doing the McJobs. Being told that this was the price that had to be paid because Labour could only get elected via the votes of Southern English aspirational scrotes was one of the factors that led me to move to Edinburgh.

    By the way, did you know that council house sales have now been banned in Scotland? None of the Labour governments did that, it had to wait until the SNP took power. Labour did not do it because as you might expect, they were afraid of the knock-on effect amongst scrotes down south.

    Tell you what: we’ll leave Britain for them and take Scotland for ourselves. Fair enough?

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