New Scotland poll shows Labour trailing SNP by 29 points

30th October, 2014 2:39 pm

Update: A YouGov Scotland poll for the Times paints a bleak (albeit not as bleak) picture as the Ipsos-Mori poll – SNP 43%, Labour 27%, Tories 15%, Lib Dems 4%.

The YouGov poll if replicated across Scotland would leave Labour with just 10 seats North of the border.

—–

Labour would face an electoral massacre in Scotland if the general election was held tomorrow, according to a new poll. Tracking the voting intention for Westminster seats among the Scottish public, the poll indicates that support for Labour is 19% points lower than it was at the 2010 election – meaning our support has roughly halved.

The poll, carried out by Ipsos-MORI for STV, found support stands at:

SNP 52%, Labour 23%, Tories 10%, Lib Dems 6%, Greens 6%, UKIP 2%, Others 1%

In 2010, Labour were by far the largest party in Scotland, winning 42% of the vote. The SNP polled 20%, the Lib Dems 19% and the Tories 17%. This new poll indicates that support for the three main Westminster parties has collapsed, with the sole beneficiary being the Scottish Nationalists.

Applied to a uniform swing across all Scottish constituencies, this result would leave Labour with just four MPs in Scotland – a drop of 36 MPs. The SNP would go from six MPs to 54. With the uniform swing, even Scottish Labour leadership candidate Jim Murphy’s seat would be at risk.

If this poll tuned out to be accurate on polling day, it would be the first time Labour had failed to top the polls in Scotland for a UK general election since 1955, on the worst performance since 1918.

This is the first poll carried out since Johann Lamont resigned as Scottish Labour leader last Friday, and shows the scale of the challenge for whoever succeeds her. While this is only a single poll, it does give weight to one of the theories behind Lamont’s resignation: that she had seen how bad the polling has been and felt she was unable to turn them around.

Tonight Ed Miliband will host the Scottish Labour Party’s annual dinner. With an acrimonious leadership resignation, the prospect of a factional leadership race and almost total annihilation next May, he may have a tough evening ahead.

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  • Dan

    Although there’s probably a specific Scottish element to this (namely what a mess Labour have got themselves into on further devolution), I think most of it is accounted for by what’s dooming Labour elsewhere in the UK: Ed Miliband’s complete failure to inspire people, and the fact that “core” Labour voters are simply NOT going to vote for yet more spending cuts. The SNP/Nicola Sturgeon are simply much more talented opponents than any Labour face elsewhere in the UK and are unequivocally against austerity, which is why the results are more exaggerated in Scotland even though most of Labour’s problems are the same as elsewhere.

    • B. MacIntosh

      Good comment. The necessary raised commas around ‘core’ tell a miserable tale themselves. The core is shrinking rapidly.

    • gunnerbear

      And of course the Jocks are using English taxpayers cash to keep their spending up. I’ll vote Labour when Labour chops funding to Scotland to the same level per head that it spent in Scunthorpe and Grimsby or raises spending in S&G to the same level in Scotland. Failing that, it’s EVFEL.

      • Guest

        So you’re making fake vote labour promises again? Sheesh.

        And no, you want multiple MP classes rather than federalism anyway…

        • gunnerbear

          You could have federalism for me – England would of course be the powerhouse that the rest of the nations would have to deal with……

      • Dave Postles

        Scunthorpe and Grimsby could have benefited from North Sea (aka Scottish) oil, but Thatcher decided to penalize them instead. Don’t ever forget that the oil revenue was squandered – and not on Scotland. Scotland suffered as much as those two places. Raise the game for north Lincolnshire, for sure, but not at the expense of anyone outside the London oligarchy and plutocracy. IMHO, you keep hitting the wrong target.

        • gunnerbear

          I can’t change the past – but at the moment the Scots get more in cash than they supposedly raise in revenue – hence my call to give the Scots the oil but then make them pay for everything and slap on tarriffs for everything. The Scots political establishment hates the English and thinks it should have a veto over the UK leaving the EU – that alone tells me that the Scots and the English are on vastly different political tracks. The Scots wanted to be a foreign country – fine, time to treat as one.

          • Dave Postles

            I find your vindictiveness very sad. You can’t change the past, but you can take it into account.

          • Sheryl Hepworth

            WHEN will some people look at the fiscal facts.. without Scottish oil revenue, Scottish Export taxes etc etc.. the UK would be bankrupt right now! why do you think the mandarins in Wastemonster fought so hard and so dirty to keep Scotland in the UK??? Before spouting crap about us being subsidy junkies learn the facts!!

          • El_Sid

            Depends whether you base your figures on 2011/12 when North Sea taxes were £10.9bn, or 2013/14 when they were £4.7bn. This summer PRT brought in just £18m in three months.

      • uglyfatbloke

        Ah…the good ole subsidy junky story. It’s bollocks, but has served well for decades….can’t really rely on it working for ever though can we?

        • gunnerbear

          Scotland gets more per head of population than regions of northern England. As far as I’m concerned, give the Scots the oil revenue and then make them pay for everything up to and including HM Forces that would be expected to deal with any threat to the oil. Time the English were given the vote as to whether we want to stay joined to the Jocks – especially as the jock leader seems to think that she has a foreign policy veto in terms of the UK leaving the EU.

        • gunnerbear

          This might be of interest: “The basic facts are that Scotland accounts for 8.4% of the UK population, 8.3% of the UK’s total output and 8.3% of the UK’s non-oil tax revenues – but 9.2% of total UK public spending.

          Scottish Executive figures for 2009-10 show that spending per capita in Scotland was £11,370, versus £10,320 for the UK. In other words, spending in Scotland was £1,030 – or 10% higher – per head of population than the UK
          average.

          What about revenues? The same source shows Scottish total non-oil tax revenues coming in at £42.7bn in 2009-10, or £8,221 per head, which compares with total public expenditure attributable to Scotland of £59.2bn, or £11,370
          per head.”

          (BBC Website, “Scotland: A case of give and take”, Stephanie Flanders, 9 January 2012)

    • leslie48

      Well the SNP lost before. The possible election of the Tories until 2020 will concentrate minds in Scotland as in England and voting for a government is more critical. Ordinary people will not vote Tory because they perceive many economic and social threats. The Labour vote is ‘the vote’ for most folk when faced with 5 more years of Cameron and Osborn and many third party preferences will melt away like snow upon the dessert.

      • Jamie Smith

        Labour supports the bombing in Iraq, the renewal of WMD and the tories’ welfare cuts. Labour politicians, especially the likes of Murphy, are now seen as “Red Tories” in Scotland.

        • leslie48

          Our requested & western intervention in Iraq in the face of thousands of ethnic and religious massacres and beheadings by ISIS ( and many more dead captured prisoners reported today) is morally correct . If there are people like you associated with the Labour movement who cannot take on Evil or (understand that war is sometimes the lesser evil ) – it’s just not worth even debating here or being associated with such a group of people.

          • Doug Smith

            The Labour Party certainly has a responsibility to mitigate the catastrophe it helped instigate: 100,000s of unnecessary civilian deaths. And the betrayal and avoidable deaths of U.K. military personal. And the destruction of Iraq.

            What chance of us having sight of Chilcot’s report before the 2015 election…

          • leslie48

            What are you talking about. Previously to ISIS it was extreme sectarianism and insurgency amongst Iraqis by Iraqis on Iraqis. Today the threat is ISIS and there are those who claim that we were too indifferent and passive in the face of the worst atrocities in the 21st century done by Assad in Syria. ( Even after the war crimes of gassing families we Labour voted appallingly in my view against the UK, US, French and Danes intervention). The story of Syria, the deference to Putin, the retreat of Labour and Obama and the indifference to the horrors of the Syrian civil war led to the new horrors in Iraq 2014. Out of the ignored chaos of Syria ( as warned by UN) comes a new evil.

          • MacZappa

            The Empire is alive and well it would seem………..

        • Matthew Blott

          Er, yeah okay.

      • Matthew Blott

        “Ordinary people will not vote Tory…”

        Lots of “ordinary” people vote Tory I’m afraid. Cameron wouldn’t currently be prime minister if it was just retired colonels and good old fashioned bigots that voted Conservative.

        • leslie48

          Indeed they do – but since 2010 many have suffered including public service staff in health, local offices, schools, midwives, police officers etc., who have been given zero or 1% pay awards(?). I feel there will be more ordinary people in the UK less likely to go with the Eton boys.

          • Dan

            You’re right, but why would people who are angry about that suffering vote Labour, when Labour is pledged to continue with the same things?

            Labour crying about how they’re “not the Tories” is simply not going to be good enough on its own, in an age where people have a variety of other non-Tory parties to choose from.

          • Leon Wolfeson

            But the major shift isn’t to other parties, but to not voting. Other parties are a joke under FPTP, and people know it.

          • uglyfatbloke

            It does n’t look that way in Scotland. We should expect a big Scottish turnout next year – maybe not on the scale of the referendum, but a big rise compared to 2010.

          • Matthew Blott

            People have suffered in the UK forever. Things are bad but they’ve been bad plenty of times before (and they’re still not as bad as the 1930s). Labour’s electoral record is poor and I think part of that is an assumption that bad economic news will translate into opposition to the Tories and support for left-wing alternatives. I wish it were so but it’s a bit more complicated than that.

          • Guest

            But they’re more likely not to vote. Because Labour isn’t offering a real alternative any more.

          • Guest

            Well no, they’re shifting to “not voting”.

          • MacZappa

            Since 2010? What about the thirteen years of Neo-Liberal economic policy before? In case you haven’t noticed, the Labour Party is a center-right, Neo-Liberal, Thatcherite organisation thoroughly in bed with global capital and its interests. Not to mention the Neo-Con foreign policy. Why on earth, despite the overwhelming evidence, do some folks cling to the erroneous notion that Labour are a center-left party? It simply does not square with the facts.

      • BillFrancisOConnor

        I don’t do predictions. Maybe there will be a huge SNP vote in Scotland but I hope that there is a smidgeon of truth to your prediction here.

      • fluffnik

        The threat of Tories won’t save “Scottish” Labour, it will kill the Union.

        It only needs a 6% swing to end the UK…

      • uglyfatbloke

        That’s been the case in the past, but not, perhaps, any longer. This is not really as sudden as it seems, it’s along-term issue. Voting in a raft of Labour MPs did n’t do that much good for Scottish interests under Blair and Brown, let alone under Cameron. There’s a good chance that a big swatch of gnats (possibly headed up by Salmond) could secure FFA in exchange for confidence and supply for Cameron. They could just as easily do the same for Ed, though the experience of supporting Callaghan in the late 1970s would make them very cautious for understandable reasons.

    • Leon Wolfeson

      Stop blaming Ed.

      The problem is policy. The policy which keeps moving right. People like me on the left are thinking there’s no point holding our noses and voting for Labour – Ed doesn’t come into it!

  • RWP

    Interesting to see UKIP so low – the demographics of northern England are not dissimilar to central Scotland so the divergence in popularity either side of the border shows that there is a distinct Scottish political culture.

    Meanwhile, this is a poll of pre-1997 Westminster proportions but remember the eventual result will likely be closer than these figures. Having said that, this hardly makes the strongest case for huge confidence in Labour as the best hope of an alternative to the current government.

    • Dan

      I think UKIP’s bad showing is simply because the SNP swallow up the “none of the above” protest votes that go to UKIP elsewhere.

    • Jack Fate

      UKIP are hampered in Scotland as they go after the Scots- NI Loyalist vote. Their activists, candidates and office bearers up here are linked with hardcore Orangeism. That puts the mainstream off them.

    • gunnerbear

      Of course there is a separate politicial culture – they can spend but they don’t have to raise the cash themselves. I’d cut the Barnett Formula and then say to Scotland – go on then, run your own tax and spend policies.

      • FMcGonigal

        Independence was defeated in the referendum with the promise of further devolution and specifically keeping the Barnett Formula.

        As Scotland gradually takes control of its own taxes then the Barnett Formula will become less important.

        • gunnerbear

          Yep…..but we English weren’t given a vote on it, we’re we? I wonder how many voters in the poorer parts of England would’ve said, “Yeah, spend even more cash on the Jocks….the only thing larger than their demand for cash from others is there sense of persecution.” When do English voters get the vote on if Scotland should stay part of the UK – as far as I’m concerned given the actions of the SNP Leader demanding a veto over any UK exit from the EUI – the sooner the Scots f**k off the better especially as foreign affairs is f**k all to do with her benefit soaking ‘Scottish Local Council’.

          • robertcp

            Sorry. The English are not allowed to be independent!

          • Guest

            Independence isn’t something other people than those who are voting for said independence get a say on.

            We should get a say on devo-max/federalism, of course.

            No surprise you want to vote on isolationism, though, as you cry about having Scotland in the Union, as you swear and curse at the Scots, and make up nonsense to throw at them.

          • FMcGonigal

            True – the England had no vote but it has once again raised the issue of devolution for England which is no bad thing and will eventually require a referendum.
            Nicola Sturgeon may be wrong over the EU referendum – but we could have a situation where England votes narrowly to leave the EU but Scottish votes strongly to stay – and tilts the UK-wide vote in favour of EU membership. Then English voters would feel aggrieved.

          • gunnerbear

            If the Jocks vote to stay in and the English out of the EU…..well then, that’s the end of the UK. English votes for English laws made by people we can vote out…..not unelected foreigners in the EU.

          • FMcGonigal

            That is in essence what Nicola Sturgeon is saying – she wants to use the EU membership as a wedge issue to re-open the Scottish independence debate.

      • Guest

        So you’d cut all cash to Scotland, then…break up the Union. Surprise!

    • Leon Wolfeson

      Not really, UKIP offer an explicitly English-based answer to everything.

  • Alan Ji

    I think the first lesson to draw from this poll is that the interviewees are not yet ready to think about the 7 May 2015 UK General Election. So Labour’s challenge is to offer them positive things to think about.

    • John Ruddy

      I think people are still in “referendum mode” when being asked questions about who they will vote for. Just as in 2010/11 they were in “Westminster mode” when asked about who they would vote for in the 2011 Holyrood election, and giving us a lead in the opinion polls.

      Now that doesnt mean I’m complacent, but rather that I am taking these polls with a note of scepticism.

  • Tinkerbell

    Well what did you all expect? When you made your Faustian pact with the Tories and sold Scotland down the river, did you not think there would be a price to pay?

    I was a committed socialist and voted Labour in ever election I could until a few years ago. I did not leave my party ideals and principles but the Labour Party did.

    • Leon Wolfeson

      Oh get off it. Labour is pro-Union as a party, if they’d abandoned that then they’d have shown they were indeed like the Tories, interested only in short-term benefits.

      What you say about Labour’s views moving is true, but Labour being pro-union is a rare plus point, not a negative!

  • jaime taurosangastre candelas

    I hope this poll is an early extreme, but it does show that the SNP could send a significant number of MPs to Westminster (30?). And if that is possible, with Labour losing 20 or so of those seats, the Party may have to think of a coalition with the SNP.

    The arithmetic says so, but I do not know if that is culturally possible.

    • open_sesame

      In the past, the SNP has preferred to support and get support from Tories. They hate Labour so much that they would rather Tories were in power.

      • robertcp

        The problem for the last 100 years has been that different parts of the left hate each other so much that they are happy to let the Tories stay in power. Let’s hope that this will change next year.

      • El_Sid

        They’ve come a long way from the Tartan Tories that toppled Callaghan (not least because of what happened to them in the subsequent election). They were well to the left of Labour by 2001 but the prospect of power at Holyrood has brought them into the centre ground.

        Their instincts still appear to be pretty socialist – see eg the big fuss they made about Fergusons, a long way from the Nordic laissez-faire model they profess to admire (compare the way Saab was left to die) – but their policy on eg corporation tax is very different to Labour’s.

        Still, I can’t see anyone wanting to enter a formal coalition next time.

    • Doug Smith

      “the SNP could send a significant number of MPs to Westminster (30?).”

      Splendid. We could do with some Left-of-Centre representation in Parliament. A one-party LibLabCon state is not good for democracy.

      • Guest

        Your inability to tell one MP from another from your seat WAY out there…

    • Steve Stubbs

      The tory submission on additional powers offers more to Scotland than the labour submission.

    • robertcp

      I would think that the SNP are more likely to agree a confidence and supply arrangement than enter a coalition.

  • swatnan

    The SNP were supposed to have lost, the Referendum? No?

    • Leon Wolfeson

      The SNP have a lot of support from people who want a federal or devolved Scotland, not independence. It’s ever been so.

      • El_Sid

        According to polling at the 2011 Holyrood election, only 60% of SNP voters would say Yes to independence, the reason they did so well was ex-Labour voters giving up on Labour as a credible political force north of the border.

        • Leon Wolfeson

          …Or at least a left-wing political force.

          Yea, this isn’t new in any case.

    • robertcp

      If I lived in Scotland, I would have voted for the SNP in 2007 and 2011 but would have voted NO to independence.

  • Tom Sanders

    Feet to the fire, isn’t that what the man said?

  • Theoderic Braun

    This might not be such a bad thing. The SNP is far more likely to ally itself with Labour than the Conservatives and more SNP MPs could help pull the Labour party from the right left-ward towards the centre. Better more SNP MPs than than a shed-load of NuLab Progressite Liam Byrne-alikes.

    • John Ruddy

      Afraid its new membership wont allow them to ally with Labour. We are to be destroyed in Scotland, in their view. Down to 4MPs in Scotland? Thats 4 too many in their book.

    • Jack Fate

      Also misses the point that some good left-wing Labour MPs will disappear if this comes to pass. The SNP do a decent job of looking left but they arent that progressive on some things.
      They are more interested in burying Labour than anything.

      • SilentHunter

        No; they appear to be more interested in keeping the NHS out of private hands (remind us all again how Alastair Darling has shares in private healthcare companies trying to get contracts in the NHS), and who was it who introduced the “internal market” into the NHS?
        That’s right . . . Labour!

        The SNP don’t just “look Left” . . . they ARE left; and certainly far more “left” than Labour are, or have been since they ditched Clause 4.

        That’s why YOUR voters are deserting you in waves now.

    • leslie48

      Labour always wins on the centre ground – they cannot offer the moon with the West’s jobs in decline ( globalisation) , when indebtedness of governments is high ( taxes are not covering our changing demographics) when inequality is becoming a function of the disappearance of the middle jobs ( Lloyds to remove 9000 jobs). France is a prime example of a Socialist government facing cuts too.
      People appreciate there are no quick fixes when we are in a post-crisis/secular stagnation in the West. But Labour is the best choice to share out the national cake as it gets smaller.

      • Steve Stubbs

        Whilst increasing the number of people wanting slices.

        • leslie48

          Unsure what you mean – surely the poor, ill, destitute, mentally challenged,, redundant breadwinners( 9000 coming from Lloyds soon) , accident disabled etc., cannot be abandoned to drastically dire incomes.

          • Steve Stubbs

            I was referring directly to the party’s past open-door immigration policy, and indirectly to the fact we still have no actual policy on immigration, only a few soundbites about ameliorating the effects of it.

          • leslie48

            Labour do have policies on immigration from the rest of the world and stricter policies have evolved. On the EU migrants all peoples have freedom of movement just like you and I can go to live in Spain, France or Italy. Moreover we need some migrants or else our economy declines. Because they are younger and able, they work and pay taxes and help the burden of the growing elderly.

          • Guest

            You’re talking about trade being allowed, and people being allowed to cross borders.

            And if you are not a voter here, as you are saying…well, that’s your issue.

        • Guest

          Yea, how dare British people have kids!

      • Theoderic Braun

        Seriously though: Why is anybody surprised by what is happening north of the border? Did any potential Labour voters think that the party committing to do such things as freezing child benefit (to purportedly save an insignificant amount of money in the grant scheme of things) and replace the current entitlement of 18 to 21 year olds to out of work benefits by a half-baked “parental means-tested youth allowance” conditional on them being perpetually enrolled on some unspecified kind of “training courses” (irrespective of where they might be geographically in the country) would endear Labour to the Scots(!) or any left-of-centre voter? And Balls trying to out tough Osborne by matching his boast that as post-2015 Chancellor he would running a surplus within five years of moving into 11 Downing Street?

        Blimey!

        The Scots turning away from a party that broke its promises to them wholesale for thirteen years and now offers them a banquet of cod-Tory policies, such as those mentioned above, was a foregone conclusion, surely?

        • leslie48

          On Child Benefit agreed an own goal if ever there was one. There will have to be some vision of a fairer society and some way of how it will be delivered given the structural changes societies like ours are undergoing.

      • Guest

        Labour is well to the right of the centre these days. Even Blair’s called Labour out on this.

        France is a primary example of socialists not acting as socialists, and waffling – the prime sin to the markets. Your determination that there will be less food for the poor…let alone cake…

        • leslie48

          The challenge is to have a vision of a fairer society with less inequality. Labour will act to do that as it did before. However we cannot ignore the structural changes be it automation, globalisation, post-crisis issues like stagnation / low pay/less middle level jobs and of course rising numbers of elderly. Labour has to convince the marginal and loyal voters it can deliver better on these than the very right wing Tories. so far our message is too moderate and soft.

    • SilentHunter

      Why on earth would the SNP wish to ally themselves with the Red Tories?

      You guys really don’t “get it”, do you? . . . Your party is TOXIC in Scotland.

      You jumped into bed with the Tories, the LibDems and even the Orange Order to make sure we didn’t “leave” the union, because you mistakenly thought it would preserve your Scottish voter base; how wrong you were!!!

      You took your Scottish voters for granted and now you’re going to pay the electoral price for it.

      I doubt Labour will have MSP’s in double figures after 2016.

    • Mukkinese

      The SNP do not vote on English matters so no deals are likely with any party.

      Secondly, the premise of this article is based on some very big “Ifs”.

      “If” this vote share is the same on the day of the G.E. and “If” this V.I. is a uniform national swing.

      We already know that it is not a uniform national swing now, because the Labour/SNP marginals have been polled and the SNP is only less than 20 points behind Labour in 3 seats. Even in those 3 they are 10 or more points behind…

  • Doug Smith

    Jim Murphy to the rescue! lol

    • Dave Postles

      A bit eggstreme.

    • Chilbaldi

      nationalist troll is trolling, non shocker

      • Doug Smith

        Nationalist? News to me. Perhaps you’d like to tell me more about myself – there’s probably a lot I haven’t yet discovered.

  • Sidney Ruff-Diamond

    How can anyone be surprised by this? Scotland has been neglected by the Westminsteristas as has northern England. At least the Scots have the SNP to vote for; all anyone else has in England is f***ing UKIP.

    • ColinAdkins

      I take the class position because working people in London and the SE have hardly benefitted either.

      • Sidney Ruff-Diamond

        True enough, but their proximity to the centre of power means they aren’t taken quite as much for granted as the northern heartlands.

        • ColinAdkins

          So why then are some of the country’s poorest boroughs in London and in relative terms absolutely. You are beginning to sound like one of the four Yorkshiremen. Luxury.

    • robertcp

      I agree, although the Greens might disagree!

    • Leon Wolfeson

      The SNP is still neoliberal, so…

    • leslie48

      New Labour delivered devolution to Scotland & Wales and I am certain expenditure in those two regions went up compared to the 18 years of Thatcher/Major. Scotland receives a higher amount of spending per citizen – does it not.

      • Sidney Ruff-Diamond

        I am talking about traditionally Labour voters being taken for granted and, on certain issues, outright ignored by the Labour Party. So Blair delivered devolution. In so doing he and his advisers believed Scotland and Wales would be Labour forever so they took their eyes off the ball. This is allied to the nonsense going on in Scottish Labour.

        The same has happened across traditional Labour heartlands everywhere in Britain and now it is biting the Party on the arse.

        • leslie48

          Well relatively its a lot more than they will get for another 5 years of Tory butchering of the public services, denigration of the public services, severe cuts and frozen benefits etc. Moreover with tax increases to the wealthy and further contracting out the immiseration of many lower paid will go on. Ed promises better minimum wage/living wages, control of migrant job recruiters, improved child care, utility companies control, railway/infrastructure improvements, re-look at 6th form and university opportunities, etc., Yes we need a grand vision of a Labour society versus a divided Tory one but there are reforms promised. In the end you know and I know who gains/loses in a Tory UK and it’s obvious they use the state to further bourgeois/Neo-Liberal purposes.

  • barry

    People suggesting that this is good news or that the Labour Party can form a coalition with the SNP after the election are sadly far from the mark. This news will result in two things: a continuation of a Libdem/Con coalition after the election and a fresh Scottish referendum before 2020 with the likelihood on a yes vote because the Scots are fed up of seeing a Tories in power at Westminster.
    Labour simply won’t have enough seats in Westminster to form coalitions if this poll and recent polls in the rest of the UK are accurate.

    • El_Sid

      Odds have to be on a minority government, the example of the LibDems in this Parliament will not encourage anyone to enter a formal coalition. The idea of the SNP forming a coalition with anyone is unlikely given their historical rhetoric.

      • Steve Stubbs

        I would disagree on that. If labour need the SNP in a coalition after May, I can see the Nats agreeing – subject to Miliband agreeing to have another referendum by the end of the parliament. And they would win that one.

        • El_Sid

          The Nats have branded themselves as the anti-Labour, anti-Westminster party – who votes for them once they “sell out” by joining with Labour at Westminster? It’s like the LibDems and tuition fees.

          And they’re only a useful coalition partner if they give up their principle of not voting on English-only matters.

  • swatnan

    Jim must … ‘fight, fight and fight again’ … to save the Party he loves!

    • Jamie Smith

      Ha ha ha. Nice one.

  • 07052015

    No wonder johann was pushed -need all the big beasts pulling together and an end to the ego dominated sectarianism .Brown,darling,murphy ,wee dougie,curran all losing their seats should concentrate minds.Alexander,Bruce and co would also be history.

    Four/five party politics is complicated unfortunately the electorate only sees black/white solutions.

    • Leon Wolfeson

      We have an election system which is black/white, though.

      FPTP is the problem.

  • Chilbaldi

    And yet hardly anyone questions Ed Miliband’s position.

    I despair.

    • leslie48

      Its too late. no one has the guts.

    • ToffeeCrisp

      I’m confused.

      Just a couple of days ago here on Labourlist, we were being assured that Labour wouldn’t be taking part in “Operation Pander”.

      So why does Ed seem determined to be aiming to reduce the number of Labour MP’s in Scotland to the same as the number of Pandas?

  • Steve Stubbs

    The SNP are in favour of EV4EL. It will be in the tory manifesto. If labour lose anything like this number of seats to the SNP in Scotland and a fair few to UKIP in England then EV4EL will happen. So the prospect of a minority labour government or a labour/lib coalition losing control of English only issues looms large.

    As a supporter of EV4EL I would welcome that. It will force the issue on a new constitutional settlement including an English parliament, which can then decide for itself on the level and amount of further devolution within England.

    • Guest

      Nope, it’ll mean two classes of MP and *block* any kind of sensible federal settlement.

      • Steve Stubbs

        We already have two classes of MPs. Those who can vote on all matters affecting their constituents, and those who can only vote on some matters affecting their constituents.

    • Alan Ji

      What English Laws?
      Can you name three?

      • Steve Stubbs

        Any NHS legislation. The NHS is England only as far as parliament is concerned.

        Any taxation legislation applying only to England after the increased devolved powers are in force next year with large swathes of taxation devolved to the assemblies.

        Any social services / education legislation which will also be England only as far as parliament is concerned.

        That lot do you for starters?

    • Mike Homfray

      Would have to be under PR as are the other national parliaments

      • Steve Stubbs

        Where is that so legislated? The Scottish parliament and the other assembles are PR only as it was enacted as such in their various acts of Parliament setting them up. Nothing to say that England should be the same if the enabling Act does not specify it.

        Having said that I am all in favour of PR as long as it is actually real PR, (so that excludes AV which is anything but), does not include party lists so named individual candidates are elected and accountable to an electorate, not just a party selection committee.

  • BillFrancisOConnor

    It’s one poll!

    • Dan

      Would you please take your head out of the sand?

      • Steve Stubbs

        NO, he will demand evidence that there is in fact sand, and that his head is in it.

      • Leon Wolfeson

        The conclusions being drawn from it *are* rather silly for one poll.
        No need to go full-on moral panic yet.

        • El_Sid

          It may be a bit of an outlier as it was taken at the height of the Lamont fuss, but it’s broadly consistent with the Scottish polling in recent UK polls – Populus and YouGov have been putting Labour at around 20-25% in Scotland lately albeit on small sample sizes. Arguably the Tories have more reason to claim an outlier – the UK polls have been giving them 15-20% in Scotland lately, even out-polling Labour in one case, but that could just be an artefact of UK weightings getting applied to Scotland.

    • robertcp

      I agree but it is perfectly possible that Labour will lose half of its Scottish seats in 2015. Something dramatic is happening in Scotland.

    • Steve Stubbs

      But now it is two polls. How many make a trend?

      • BillFrancisOConnor

        Sorry not to be tearing my hair out with despondency.

  • Michelle

    The only way to blindside the snp now would be to scrap trident and spend the money on paying down the deficit, council house building and the nhs. If the prize freeze dominated conversation for a few months imagine the stir this would cause. Its the only radical rabbit left in the hat.

    • jaime taurosangastre candelas

      I dislike the existence of the Trident missiles possibly as much as you, but the cost to us of the replacement of the submarines is £2billion a year. It would be welcome to use that, but do not imagine that cancelling “Trident” will suddenly give us lots of money.

    • Guest

      Only because you have a complete scarcity of left-wing ideals and ideals to bring out.

      (We need UNSC reform before we scrap our deterrent).

  • SamF

    Despite all this, John McTernan, Hodges, Rentoul etc will still insist Labour need to be more right-wing to win back Scottish votes.

  • Dorothy (Dot) Commie

    Lets hope one of the Caledonian dishes had plenty of prickly Scots thistles boiled down well in a pot with soiled sporrans hiding notes of Aye to Indy? Och! such a nasty tasting dish that could have been the perfect Scottish elixir?

  • Colonel Blacksmith

    Miliband is on the way to destroying the party. Because he offers nothing. Vapid mush. The voters don’t see him as fit to run a whelk stall, let alone the country. I despair because the people who will lose out are those who need a Labour government.

  • SilentHunter

    The cat is out of the bag now . . . “the Scottish Labour Party is run like a Branch Office of the London Operation” . . . that’s something that won’t be forgotten as we go into the GE.

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