Post by-election polling shows Labour support steady as UKIP surge at Tories’ expense

UKIP appear to be experiencing a “by-election bounce” in the polls following their strong showings in the two by-elections last week – and it seems to be at the expense of the Tories.

The latest Guardian/ICM poll shows them up five point to 14%, with the Tories down two to 31%, while Labour stay constant. Their results are:

Labour 35%, Conservatives 31%, UKIP 14%, Lib Dems 11%, Other 10%

The Lord Ashcroft weekly poll, meanwhile, sees Labour regain a lead after the Tories snuck ahead last Monday. UKIP are up two, as are Labour, as the Tories drop four points. Their results are:

Labour 32%, Conservatives 28%, UKIP 19%, Lib Dems 8%, Greens 5%

This is good news for Ed Miliband. The Labour leader has faced a tough week after a series of Labour figures questioned the effectiveness of his leadership, and UKIP came within a few hundred votes of winning the previously safe Labour seat Heywood and Middleton on Thursday. The fact that the Labour support is staying strong while the Tories recedes suggests that UKIP have still not reached their capacity for taking disillusioned Conservative votes.

The best news for Labour, however, is that the ICM poll also asked people what the single most important issue was. The answer? The NHS.

Labour chose to make the NHS the central issue of the campaign in Heywood and Middleton – to such an extent that UKIP dropped immigration and also focussed on the health service during the final days before polling. Immigration did poll as the second most important topic, followed by jobs, prices and wages – another topic that Labour plan to be a cornerstone of the offer to the electorate next May.

Those results are:

NHS 24%, Immigration 20%, Jobs, prices and wages 17%, Education 9%, Deficit 7%, Pensions 5%, Crime and order 3%