Analysis shows where the Greens are the biggest threat to Labour

The polls have recently shown a rising level of support for the Greens. This poses a big threat to Labour.

With the general election fast approaching, Rob Ford, who’s a senior lecturer at the University of Manchester and co-author of Revolt on the Right, has analysed exactly where the threat from the Greens is at its highest.

He’s identified 22 seats with the highest amount of people who could move from voting Labour to Green, including current Labour-held seats such as Westminster North, Tooting and Hampstead and Kilburn.

Ford outlines a number of different kind of seats where the Greens could do well. He says “The first is a cluster of Liberal Democrat-held urban battlegrounds – seats the party often won from Labour in 2005, riding a wave of liberal-left anger about student fees and the Iraq war.”

The risk in such seats – he cites Hornsey and Wood Green and Cardiff Central as examples – is that the potential Labour supporters are often more “idealistic voters” the Greens could strongly appeal to.

Ford also said another type of constituency where the Greens’ support could significantly dint Labour’s chances are “more traditional Labour-Conservative battlegrounds with large pools of potential Green sympathisers” – like Battersea and Hendon. In these seats, a shift of Labour votes to the Greens (essentially splitting Labour’s usual base of support) could make it easier for the Tories to hold onto power.

To combat this, Ford says the voters likely to move parties have a “deep-seated disaffection from all those associated with the political establishment.” He says Labour must address this and can’t just rely on anti-Tory messages.