Just over 48 hours to go – and the polls are still neck and neck

If there’s going to be a significant crossover to the Tories – as Lynton Crosby has predicted – then it’s either already happened and the pollsters have missed it, or it’s going to happen in the final 48 hours of the campaign. Because so far, the polls are all telling a similar story – tied, or a narrow lead either way:

• YouGov CON 33%, LAB 33%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5%
• Populus CON 34%, LAB 34%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
• Lord Ashcroft CON 32%, LAB 30%, LEM 11%, UKIP 12%, GRN 7%
• Survation CON 33%, LAB 34%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 16%, GRN 4%

The Survation poll is particularly interesting as they’ve also asked two further questions. When people were asked to think about their specific constituency, they poll like this – with an increased lead for Labour:

LAB candidate – 34
CON candidate – 32
UKIP candidate – 16
LD candidate – 9
SNP candidate – 4
GRE candidate – 4
Another candidate – 1

But when presented with a replica of the ballot paper they’ll be expected to fill out on Thursday (or may have already filled out if they are postal voters) including the names of their local candidates, they polled like this:

LAB 32%
CON 31%
LD 10%
UKIP 15%
GREEN 5%
SNP 4%
PC <1%
Another Party 2%

All of which, if correct, still seems to suggest that however you slice the data, it’s still close.

Although tomorrow is the biggest polling day of the election so far, with six or seven pollsters all giving their final verdicts. Will we still be saying it’s tight after that final chance for the pollsters to have their say?

Update: One pollster doesn’t think it’s neck and neck. The final ComRes poll has the Tories 3 points ahead:

Con 35% (+2)

Lab 32% (-1)

Lib Dem 9% (+1)

UKIP 14% (+1)

Green 4% (-3)

Others 6% (NC)