Moderates and Corbynites in battle to define defeat

How did it come to this? Firstly, Britain embraced the seismic shift of leaving the EU. And then, with the prime minister forced out and the Tories in crisis, Labour embarking on its own bout of bloodletting.

But it had been coming. Hostilities were merely postponed in the expectation that a slim vote for Remain would prompt a fresh debate about the Labour leadership. Instead, the shock of Brexit, after weeks of grumbling about the vigour of Jeremy Corbyn’s EU campaigning, triggered a motion of no confidence.

Don’t assume, however, that Corbyn is about to go the same way as David Cameron. Having eventually embraced the pro-EU campaign, and spent a lot of the political capital acquired he in a landslide win less than a year ago, Corbyn won’t be forced out easily. Or to put it another way, having ended up on the same side as the British establishment – with Cameron, the Bank of England and much of the City – Corbyn won’t want to be toppled by the Labour establishment.

He is, however, facing serious problems, as shown by the identity of the MPs who led the charge. Margaret Hodge and Ann Coffey, the two much-respected MPs who tabled the motion against Corbyn, cannot be dismissed as simply angry Blairites or “bitterites”, as some on the left might be tempted to do.

The role of Hodge, in particular, is intriguing. She was previously touted as a caretaker leader if Corbyn were to be forced out but showed no indication she was interested in the role. Now, in going public with her doubts about Corbyn, she has demonstrated she is not seeking the role for herself and therefore bought some extra credibility.

She and Coffey are just two sceptics to have surfaced, but more will follow. The result of the referendum has blown open the divisions we all knew were present in the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP). What is uncertain is whether the trickle of MPs willing to challenge Corbyn’s leadership turns into a flood.

To do so would mean the “moderates” defying not just elements of the membership, but some of their own local activists, who demanded Corbyn be put on the ballot paper last year and then expected perpetual loyalty to the new leadership.

This grassroots enthusiasm is why the Corbynistas will be confident their man can survive, despite his role in an EU campaign that has failed.

Corbyn today vowed he would “absolutely” be staying in post but his words, which coupled an anti-austerity message with a vow to continue campaigning, had an air of “carry on regardless” and will have done nothing to dispel the resolve of moderates.

They oppose Corbyn, most of all, because they regard him as incompetent. This is a clash rooted not in policy but the desire to have a coherent message based on the conviction that elections can only be won from the centre ground.

And the prospect of that election is much closer. The departure of Cameron means the arrival of a new Tory leader, who may want his or her own mandate. It is this that will provoke alarm among left-leaning and centrist Labour MPs, who know that donations have somewhat dried up and that the popular appeal of Boris Johnson or the tough-talking of Theresa May could overpower the left-wing idealism of Corbyn.

Labour’s moderates will feel that Corbyn’s core justification – a huge win last summer – has been weakened by a narrow, but, totemic, defeat today.

They will see the referendum as a failure by Corbyn.

The man himself will the see vote as a rejection of an Establishment control of British society against which he has campaigned. He will see the moderates as a spent force inside the party.

Brexit will be judged as an opportunity by both wings of Labour. What is as yet unknown who can fulfil their plan.