Blow to Labour as voters expect party to be out of power until 2030

Only a third of voters expect to see a Labour government elected by 2025, according to a new poll.

The stark report showed most people expect Labour to lose the next two general elections and comes as Jeremy Corbyn is battling to hold on to parliamentary seats in Copeland and Stoke-on-Trent Central.

Just 15 per cent of people surveyed forecast a Labour victory in 2020, down from 16 per cent when the same question was asked in September. Fewer than one in five people – 18 per cent – expect a Labour government in 2025, down two points from September. These two numbers combined mean that just 33 per cent of voters expect a Labour government before then.

One in ten voters expect there never to be another Labour government, or for it to next come later than the 2040 general election.

The poll showed some signs of hope for Labour, however, in the vast number of people who left the door open to faring better – some 39 per cent of respondents are unsure what will happen.

The Guardian/ICM survey also showed the Conservatives maintaining a strong lead on current voting intention, with 42 per cent public support. Labour could expect 27 per cent if the election was held tomorrow, up one point from the same polling two weeks ago.

The Lib Dems have seen no change in their support, staying at ten per cent, and UKIP saw their backing drop by one point to 12 per cent.

Labour under Corbyn have scored successes in the London mayoral election and have defended seats in by-elections in Sheffield and Oldham West and Royton.

The party is currently engaged in a huge campaigning effort in Copeland and Stoke where it is defending slim majorities against threats from the Tories and UKIP respectively.