If you think we’ve won this already, you’re wrong

By Mark Ferguson / @markfergusonuk

Labour supporters love a good opinion poll. The thrill of feeling like you’re ahead leaves you feeling vindicated, and justifies the time spent on the doorstep, arguing over policy or delivering leaflets. I’m certainly no different. When I saw the polls at the weekend saying that Labour had a double digit lead over the Lib Dems in Oldham East I was delighted. Heading up to campaign in the seat the next day I was on a high – I thought it was all over.

But what I saw in Oldham gave me quite a different impression from the opinion polls. If you think Labour are a dead-cert to win tomorrow, you’re wrong.

Stepping out of a cab amongst terraced houses I felt reassured. If you were to describe an area that would be obviously Labour, then the streets of Oldham would be it. The compact streets, tightly packed onto the side of a hill, reminded me of the streets of Gateshead or Newcastle. It felt familiar. It felt like home.

That was until I knocked on my first door.

I’m familiar with disinterest on the doorstep. I’m even familiar with the special kind of disinterest you get with a by-election (where hundreds of strangers have been pestering, leafleting and calling you for weeks), but this was different. Televisions flickered behind blinds and people wandered around their houses making no attempt to pretend that they weren’t home. Yet the doors remained largely unanswered. Was it disdain, disinterest or distrust. It was hard to tell.

Around the corner there was a small block of flats. From the outside they looked similar to any other block I’d ever been in, but once through the door and onto soaking wet stairs it was clear this was different. Years of canvassing in deprived areas of the country hadn’t prepapred me for this. A door had been kicked off its hinges and then nailed back on to the doorframe. At the other doors there was still no response, but here the blinds didn’t twitch.

Outside the block a man began yelling at us. He screamed abuse, lambasting the Labour Party. “Thirteen years of Labour, and look at this,” he said, pointing at the decaying flats around him. I tried to talk to him, reason with him, talk about the decent homes standard. But he was furious. He wouldn’t listen, but why would he? He’s been told all of this before. The flats still haven’t improved. Despite his anger it was hard to disagree with him. In truth I felt ashamed.

Undaunted we moved further out of the urban sprawl of Greater Manchester and firmly into Saddleworth. Now we weren’t in traditional Labour territory at all, we were in commuter country. The newly built houses could have been almost anywhere. The sense that we were in a solid Labour supporting constituency had evaporated. The response on the doorstep worsened. One door opened only to be slammed shut as soon as the word Labour left my mouth. This didn’t feel like the easy win that was being advertised.

That’s not to say that the reception has been negative in Oldham East. Speaking to friends back at the campaign centre it seemed clear that those who had been nearer the centre of Oldham had found the reception largely friendly. Whilst we had been sent to speak to “hard to reach” voters, others had found streets full of Labour voters – both lifelong and newfound – who were keen to punish the coalition. Yet after the day I’d had it was hard to see how this seat was going to be a pushover. The polls couldn;t be telling the full story.

Writing yesterday, YouGov’s Peter Kellner was also sceptical about the accuracy of the by-election polls in Oldham East – pointing out that such polls have traditionally overestimated Labour’s support by significant margins. Kellner said:

“The problem of overstating Labour support is especially acute in seats that Labour is defending. I cannot recall a single example of any campaign poll understating Labour’s eventual vote share; and the polls from the last parliament are broadly consistent with polls in previous parliaments in overstating Labour support.”

“I say this not to denigrate by-election polls. Subject to normal considerations of margin of error, they are usually broadly accurate in what they measure. But what they measure is the mood of a constituency some days before election day. Often two things happen: many voters – more than in a general election – tend to make up their minds at the last moment; and Labour often has great difficulty in persuading their supporters actually to vote. Turnout is generally much lower in by-elections than general elections, and polls often understate Labour’s difficulty in motivating its supporters.”

Kellner is right – turnout will be a defining factor in the outcome of tomorrow’s by-election, and it’s hard to believe that the turnout in solidly Labour terraced streets will match that of the identikit new-builds that I canvassed so unsuccessfully on Sunday afternoon. Polls showing the Tories in third place will increase the number of “inter-coalition” switchers who will change their vote to keep Labour out.

And in the final days of the campaign the Lib Dem campaign machine have started playing hardball. One experienced Labour campaigner called it “the dirtiest Lib Dem campaign I’ve ever seen”. Dozens of different leaflets – like the one we showed you earlier this week – have been delivered across the constituency attacking Labour. There’s even a letter from someone called “Louie” circulating in the consituency that tells people to visit the Lib Dem attack site byelectionfactcheck. You’d need to be either eagle-eyed or very familiar with electoral law to realise that it’s a Lib Dem site. If you didn’t realise that, you’d be forgiven for thinking that an independent body had a very dim view of Labour.

By-elections are often decided by what happens in the final days, but a tough campaign in a tough seat (in tough circumstances) just got tougher. Tomorrow will be a crucial day in fighting back against the coalition and crippling cuts. But get the idea out of your head that we’ve already won – and if you can, head up to Oldham tomorrow – this one could go to the wire.