The Tory right are angry – and they have every reason to be

By Mark Ferguson / @markfergusonuk

The recent by-election in Oldham East was, in some small way, a watershed in British politics. Not because of Labour’s victory (although in the local circumstances such a comfortable victory was a success) but because – as I wrote at the time – there are the early signs of a developing anti-Labour alliance between Lib Dems and Tories. The Tories (seemingly on purpose) ran a lacklustre campaign in an act of coalition generosity.

The Tory right fumed at this surrender. Conservative Home were among the first to suggest that the Tories were taking it easy in Oldham, and as the result became apparent, their editor Tim Montgomerie fumed on Twitter:

“Michael Fallon insulting our intelligence on BBC1. Insisting Tories fought a full-blooded campaign”

This sense of betrayal is likely to gather pace in the coming months. Economically the right should have few complaints – vast public sector cuts and a shrinking of the state are what the likes of John Redwood have been crying out for. But on social issues (and to a lesser extent Europe) the centre ground of British politics appears to have fundamentally shifted during Labour’s time in power. We are (thankfully) far away from Section 28 and its ilk. The Tories are closing prisons and giving prisoners the vote. There’s a marriage tax break, but it’s small and hurts many affluent voters and plans for inheritance tax cuts have been quietly dropped. In those areas where the coalition’s social policy is trending towards the senseless and draconian – welfare and benefit reform – it is, publically at least, economically rather than socially motivated.

Last week Montogomerie again set off on the attack, identifying what he feels are the three biggest weaknesses of the Tory leadership:

* an unwillingness to assert the independence of the UK against European institutions;
* policy positions on law and order that are much more liberal than those of the public;
* very poor communications between Downing Street and backbenchers.

The third grievance is one we are more than familiar with in the Labour Party. Indeed most of the recent leadership contest was dominated by discussion of just how ignored backbenchers and the party at large felt while we were in government. And we didn’t have the wishes of another party to contend with (although it’s difficult to argue that the Lib Dems have any real impact on Cameron’s agenda – they do at least provide a cover for his desire to ignore the Tory right.)

Many Tories have begun to openly lambast Cameron and his government, with some going as far as to suggest that this isn’t a real Tory government at all. This sense of discomfort has snowballed in recent days, with David Davis articulating the concerns of many backbenchers yesterday when he intimated that without Andy Coulson, the leadership team is out of touch with ordinary people. There is a fear amongst many conservatives that Steve Hilton – Cameron’s green voting jargon-spouting message man – has won the battle for the Prime Minister’s brain. Who succeeds Coulson will be watched closely to see if Hilton has strengthened his hold on Cameron.

As far back as October at Tory conference, it was remarkable to see a new Prime Minister forced to pander so brazenly to his party so soon after being elected. In part this was to persuade the doubters who believed that the election result was a failure after commanding poll leads, and that the coalition would lead to a watering down of Tory values. These nay-sayers haven’t been convinced. While it’s too soon to predict a split in the party, or even open insurrection against Cameron, the Tory Party isn’t as shy as Labour at disposing of party leaders who don’t win elections – never mind those who don’t win elections and then fail to push for their priorities.

The forces of full-blooded Conservatism lurk behind Cameron, and will stalk him throughout this year. The usual sop to the Tory right – hardline euroscepticism – is off the table thanks to the pro-European Lib Dems. There are few other options open to Cameron to placate his right flank.

If these hyper-Conservative forces become organised, they could threaten Cameron’s hold on his party, and bring about what they consider to be full-blooded “real“(£) or “mainstream conservatism“. For those of us who are so shocked at the level of conservatism already on show, that’s a sobering thought.

Then again, a party played that appealed to the agenda of the Tory right – especially one shorn of Cameron, their greatest electoral asset – would almost certainly repel the public.

Perhaps we should be cheering on the rebels of the Tory right after all…