55% of LabourList readers predict a Tory government after the next election

LabourList readers are gloomy about Labour’s chances of winning the next general election, our latest survey has revealed, with a majority believing that a Tory government is the most likely outcome.

Asked about the result expected in 2024, 55% of our readers said some kind of Conservative or Conservative-led administration was most probable, versus 45% for Labour, when excluding ‘don’t know’ answers.

ConservativeHome, often considered to be the Tory equivalent of LabourList, recently ran the same survey question. 74% of their panel members confidently replied that a Tory majority was most likely.

But respondents to the new LabourList survey did not express optimism for the main opposition party, despite over 80% of them self-identifying as Labour members.

Keir Starmer certainly has a huge mountain to climb, with 123 seat gains needed to win a parliamentary majority of one – “something no major party has ever done”, as the Labour Together election review noted.

Reflecting disunity within the party, LabourList readers were found to be starkly divided on Starmer’s leadership – the top answers being “very unhappy” (34.3%) and “very happy” (33.8%) about it.

Those readers who told us they were overall “happy” – “very” or “fairly” – slightly outnumbered those who said they were unhappy with his leadership, by 49.8% to 48.1%.

In our last survey, which ran in May this year, “very happy” was the most popular answer (36%) while “very unhappy” was the response of 25% of readers.

On policy issues, LabourList readers came out in favour of Labour backing bold policies such as the cancellation of local authority debt (81.5%) and introducing proportional representation for all UK elections (75%).

Of the policies put forward by Labour in the 2019 general election, readers said the party should continue to support the following:

• Cut the substantial majority of carbon emissions by 2030 (82%)
• Create one million green jobs (74%)
• Close tax loopholes enjoyed by private schools (73%)
• Increase income tax for those earning over £80,000 (71%)
• Nationalise mail, rail, energy and water (67%)
• Repeal anti-trade union legislation (64%)
• Scrap tuition fees (61%)
• Extend full voting rights to all UK residents (61%)
• Set up a publicly owned generic drug company (60.5%)
• Compensate the WASPI women (57%)
• Maximum pay ratios of 20:1 in the public sector (56%)
• Aim for 32-hour working week within a decade (51%)

The two in our list of policies from last year’s manifesto that did not find majority backing among our survey respondents were free and fast broadband for all (very narrowly, at 49.6%) and renewing Trident (12.3%).

LabourList readers also agreed with Dawn Butler MP’s description of the Metropolitan Police as “institutionally racist”, with 71% saying ‘yes’, 17% saying ‘don’t know’ and 12% ‘no’.

David Lammy has shot up to the top of our shadow cabinet popularity poll in this survey. He came sixth in the May rankings, but has now overtaken Ed Miliband and Rosena Allin-Khan, who place second and third.

Angela Rayner, Lisa Nandy and Anneliese Dodds are the next most popular shadow cabinet members. All six placed in the top seven in the last survey, too – along with Rebecca Long-Bailey, who has since been sacked.

Almost 81% of respondents to the new LabourList survey identified themselves as Labour Party members, while nearly 53% said they were members of at least one trade union.

Unite was the most popular choice by some way (37%), followed by UNISON (18%) and GMB (11%) – Labour’s three biggest affiliate unions. All three are soon set to be undergoing changes of leadership.

1. Are you a Labour member?

1. Yes – 80.9% (5,823)
2. No – 19.1% (1,374)

2. Are you a member of a trade union?

1. Yes – 52.8% (3,801)
2. No – 47.2% (3,396)

3. If so, which one?

1. Unite the Union – 37.2% of respondents (1,414)
2. UNISON – 17.8% (675)
3. GMB – 10.6% (404)
4. UCU – 7.4% (281)
5. NEU – 7.1% (271)
6. Other(s) – 5.2% (237)
7. PCS – 3.7% (139)
8. Community – 3.6% (136)
9. Prospect – 2.1% (81)
10. NUJ – 2.1% (79)

4. Are you happy with Keir Starmer’s leadership of the Labour Party since his election?

1. Very unhappy – 34.3% (2,472)
2. Very happy – 33.8% (2,429)
3. Fairly happy – 16% (1,155)
4. Fairly unhappy – 13.8% (990)
5. Don’t know – 2.1% (151)

5. What do you think is the most likely outcome of the next general election?

1. Tory majority – 26.7% (1,922)
2. Don’t know – 21.8% (1,568)
3. Labour-led coalition – 14.9% (1,075)
4. Tory minority government – 12.3% (883)
5. Labour minority government – 11.7% (845)
6. Labour majority – 8.4% (605)
7. Tory-led coalition – 4.2% (299)

6. Should Labour nominate anyone for peerages while the House of Lords exists in its current form?

1. Yes – 48.8% (3,514)
2. No – 42.1% (3,031)
3. Don’t know – 9.1% (652)

7. Should Labour back the campaign for the cancellation of local authority debt?

1. Yes – 81.5% (5,864)
2. Don’t know – 13.1% (943)
3. No – 5.4% (390)

8. Should Labour support the introduction of proportional representation (PR) for all UK elections?

1. Yes – 75.2% (5,413)
2. No – 15.4% (1,106)
3. Don’t know – 9.4% (678)

9. Do you agree with Dawn Butler MP that the Metropolitan Police is institutionally racist?

1. Yes – 70.8% (5,093)
2. Don’t know – 17.1% (1,230)
3. No – 12.1% (874)

10. Which of the following 2019 manifesto policies should Labour support now?

1. Cut the substantial majority of carbon emissions by 2030 – 82% of respondents (5,904)
2. Create one million green jobs – 74% (5,327)
3. Close tax loopholes enjoyed by private schools – 73.4% (5,281)
4. Increase income tax for those earning over £80,000 – 71.4% (5,141)
5. Nationalise mail, rail, energy and water – 67.4% (4,848)
6. Repeal anti-trade union legislation – 63.7% (4,581)
7. Scrap tuition fees – 61.2% (4,408)
8. Extend full voting rights to all UK residents – 60.7% (4,372)
9. Set up a publicly owned generic drug company – 60.5% (4,351)
10. Compensate the WASPI women – 56.7% (4,079)
11. Maximum pay ratios of 20:1 in the public sector – 55.9% (4,025)
12. Aim for 32-hour working week within a decade – 50.8% (3,658)
13. Free and fast broadband for all – 49.6% (3,568)
14. Renew the Trident nuclear programme – 12.3% (884)

11. Who are your favourite members of Keir Starmer’s shadow cabinet?

1. David Lammy – 2,727
2. Ed Miliband – 2,193
3. Rosena Allin-Khan – 2,154
4. Angela Rayner – 2,123
5. Lisa Nandy – 1,772
6. Anneliese Dodds – 1,571
7. Emily Thornberry – 1,562
8. Cat Smith – 1,172
9. Andy McDonald – 1,088
10. Jonathan Ashworth – 873
11. Marsha de Cordova – 815
12. Rachel Reeves – 407
13. Nick Thomas-Symonds – 392
14. Ian Murray – 324
15. John Healey – 270

The survey was open from 5.30pm on Friday 14th August until 6pm on Sunday 16th August. The results are unweighted and from a self-selected sample of readers. Thank you to all 7,197 readers who took part.