Will there be a leadership challenge if Labour loses Batley and Spen?

Rumours have been swirling for weeks that allies of Angela Rayner are sounding out colleagues about a potential leadership challenge. They have now made it to the front page of The Times, which reports that backers of the deputy leader are preparing for her to challenge Keir Starmer if the party loses the Batley and Spen by-election taking place today. On MPs canvassing for support, a spokesperson for Rayner said: “Anybody doing that is not doing it under instructions from Angela or with Angela’s backing. Angela is focused entirely on her jobs.” Note the amusing emphasis on “jobs” – a reminder that this is all happening because Rayner’s botched post-Hartlepool sacking as party chair and national campaign coordinator weakened Starmer’s position and led to her being given several senior roles. She now has fewer than one member of staff in Westminster for each of her jobs.

There are two points we can draw out from this response. One, her team is saying the deputy leader, Shadow First Secretary of State, Shadow Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and Shadow Secretary of State for the Future of Work (and breathe) simply does not have the resources to be preparing a challenge right now. Two, a lot depends on Starmer’s reaction if Labour does lose Batley and Spen (as well as the scale of the defeat). It is incredibly rare for a governing party to gain one let alone two seats in by-elections. It would show that Labour is going backwards electorally, and this would make Labour MPs even more worried for their chances at the next election. It should be fertile ground for a challenge. And yet, crucial in determining what follows is the leadership’s political and media management of the situation.

If Starmer’s team works with Rayner’s to keep things calm in the parliamentary party, there could be very little that happens on Friday. There may be calls from figures on the left of the movement for the leader to step down, but the general mood in the parliamentary party is that this is not the time for a messy leadership contest. Labour MPs, furious and sad about the nastiness of the Batley campaign, broadly do not want to grant George Galloway’s wish of a Starmer resignation. Those fearful of a Corbynite getting into power would like to see a change in the rules before any leadership election takes place. And the same people point out that the YouGov poll showing 41% of Labour members think Starmer should quit if Batley is lost also shows Yvette Cooper would be the most popular eligible candidate. For all those reasons and more, most think Starmer has at least another year – even if the by-election result, expected at around 4.30-5am, is a dreadful one for Labour. Sign up to LabourList’s morning email for everything Labour, every weekday morning.