Tamworth by-election: Historic results breakdown and Sarah Edwards’ speech

Labour candidate Sarah Edwards has won an historic victory in the Tamworth by-election, on the second highest ever Tory-to-Labour swing of 23.9%.

Tamworth Labour tweeted that it was an “absolutely sensational result”, with the Tories starting the night with a majority of almost 20,000 but Labour winning a majority of 1,316.

Election expert Sir Jon Curtice said that “no government has hitherto lost to the principal opposition party in a by-election a seat as safe as Tamworth.”

Labour secured 46% of the vote, versus the Tories’ 41%. The turnout in the Staffordshire town was 35.9%.

Labour’s Edwards is a union organiser for Unite based in the West Midlands, and a former NHS governor.

She said voters had backed Labour’s “positive vision” and sent a “clear message to Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives they have had enough of this failed government”, which had “crashed the economy and destroyed our public services”.

“The people of Tamworth have made it clear – it’s time for change.”

Victory in the 57th safest Tory seat

Shadow Business and Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds had told Sky News shortly before results were declared that Tamworth wasn’t even a “seat we’d be looking to win to form a majority”, given it was the 57th safest Tory seat in the country in the 2019 general election.

He said “changes” by Keir Starmer had been key for Labour’s success.

Fellow shadow minister Stephanie Peacock said issues like the cost of living, the state of the economy and potholes had come up repeatedly during the campaign. BBC presenter Jo Coburn noted the area had voted “heavily” for Brexit, with Edwards highlighting how Labour had vowed to “make Brexit work”.

The Tamworth results in full:

The full results as declared by Tamworth council’s returning officer were as follows:

Sarah Edwards (Labour) – 11,719

Andy Cooper (Conservative) – 10,403

Ian Cooper (Reform UK) – 1373

Ashlea Simon (Britain First) – 580

Robert Bilcliff (UKIP) – 436

Sunny Virk (Liberal Democrat) – 417

Sue Howarth (Green Party) – 417

Howling Laud Hope (Monster Raving Loony Party) – 155

Labour ‘on course to win’ general election

Sir John Curtice also said just before results were declared that “substantial swings” to Labour in both Mid Beds and Tamworth, combined with Labour’s opinion poll lead, suggested it was “on course to win the next election”.

The last time Labour saw such swings was in the mid-1990s, and the results suggest the much smaller swing and Tory win seen in Uxbridge and South Ruislip may have been a “mirage rather than a pathway to Conservative recovery”.

A 21.3% swing was needed to win Tamworth, and 19.1% in Mid Bedfordshire, according to the BBC. Labour secured an historic 23.7% swing in the Selby and Ainsty by-election, but only 6.7% in Uxbridge and South Ruislip.

But shadow minister Jonathan Ashworth told the BBC “nobody in the Labour party” was taking the result as proof Labour was on track for a “great” general election victory. But he said it showed Starmer’s “message of hope” was resonating.

Conservative MP Robert Buckland had also sought to downplay the significance of the result earlier in the night, telling the BBC by-elections are a “different beast” to general elections and simply a current “snapshot” rather than a clear signal. The Tories were also at a “disadvantage’ given the particular circumstances around Tory MP Chris Pincher.

Echoes of history in mid-1990s by-election

The by-election in the seat was triggered following the resignation of Pincher, who announced in September that he was stepping down after losing an appeal against an eight-week suspension from the House of Commons following groping allegations.

Pincher was elected as MP for Tamworth for a fourth time in 2019 with an increased majority of 19,634. The seat was previously held by Labour’s Brian Jenkins from 1997 to 2010.

Curtice noted Labour had won in “exactly the same place with virtually exactly the same swing” in a 1996 by-election.

Jenkins notably won the predecessor seat South East Staffordshire that year, turning a Tory majority of more than 7,000 into a Labour majority of more than 13,500.