Poll: Two-thirds of Muslim voters plan to vote Labour in 51-point lead over Tories

Gaza ceasefire protest at Scottish Labour conference. Photo: Tom Belger

A new poll suggests almost two-thirds of Muslim voters could back Labour at the general election, despite the party’s headaches over its stance on Gaza since Hamas’ October attacks.

The survey by Savanta for the website Hyphen found 63% of the 1,083  Muslim voters surveyed would back Labour if the election were tomorrow. Only 12% would back the Conservatives, 12% the Lib Dems, 7% the Greens and 5% other candidates.

But Hyphen reports that most voters who rank the crisis in Gaza in their top five concerns would at least “consider voting for a pro-Palestine, independent candidate given the chance”. Some 44% of those polled said the conflict was among their top five issues, and 86% said they’d consider backing an independent running on the topic.

But many in Labour will be relieved to see the poll signal significant support for Labour still, despite the party losing ground in some more Muslim areas at the local elections and the party urging activists to canvass locally in many more Muslim seats, as LabourList recently revealed.

The party’s vote share at 64% is only one point down from another Savanta poll carried out in late October.

READ MORE: Labour website says party ‘needs help’ defending 16 seats in more Muslim areas – including ultra-safe seats

But Hyphen reports that the poll suggests Labour has lost almost a quarter of its support among Muslim voters to other parties since the 2019 general election. However, polling suggests two in five Muslim voters who previously backed the Conservatives would now back Labour.

LabourList recently revealed that more than a dozen Labour-held seats with a significant number of Muslim voters had been described by the party’s website as “battleground areas”. Local activists are told to stay put, amid apparent fears of bleeding support over Gaza.

These include the constituencies of Shadow Paymaster General Jonathan Ashworth, Shadow Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood and Shadow Investment and Small Business minister Rushanara Ali.

READ MORE: Shaheen’s lawyers challenge Labour deselection as she claims ‘problem with brown people’

It comes despite the fact Ashworth is defending a 46.4 percentage point majority over his nearest challenger, Mahmood a 73.2pp majority, and Ali a 63.4pp majority, according to a study of 2019 general election results as if they had been held on the new 2024 constituency boundaries.

One MP told LabourList it showed the party “recognises that we have got work to do” rebuilding trust, while one think tank leader said Labour was right to worry about the “by-elections on home turf” it faces against a string of independent candidates.

Read more of our 2024 general election coverage here.

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