Wales would pay the highest price for a Corbyn victory

Labour’s inevitable defeat under a Corbyn leadership is understandably fixated on 2020, yet at least a quarter of the country would be granted a test-drive on this express lane to extinction. As the only UK region with a Labour government, next May’s Welsh elections will be ground zero for Corbynmania’s logical endgame.

Welsh Labour has an uphill task to begin with. Its leads in opinion polls have collapsed in recent years. Its handling of public services is frequently highlighted in the national press in less than glowing terms. Labour rule in Wales is seen to augur the consequences of Labour control for the UK – transformation in to a statist dystopia where it rains. Frequently.

Nor do the challenges end there. Multiple Labour AMs are stepping down, shearing their local parties of any incumbency advantage.

Recent projections suggest moderate losses for Labour. Yet such polls are necessarily snapshots of support at present levels. Whether Corbyn would experience a honeymoon bounce in the polls is open to dispute, but it is likely to be transient in the extreme and to have fully dissipated by next May. How would Welsh Labour fare if the party was continually polling below 20% at the national level? What would the perfect storm of an unpopular Welsh government and a national party which has to fight to poll in double digits mean?

Put simply, few Labour seats would be genuinely safe and a Tory government in Cathays Park would be a distinct possibility.

The cluster of heavily anglicised suburban seats along the M4 corridor will be the most vulnerable. The key marginal of Cardiff North would go blue, as would Gower. The Vale of Glamorgan – held by Finance Minister Jane Hutt – features similarly challenging demographics and prospects. Northern seats such as the Vale of Clwyd and Delyn could fall to the Conservatives. Llanelli will be a street-to-street battle against Plaid. The Valleys constituencies – which saw UKIP dent longstanding Labour majorities – are no longer the safest of seats. With its once towering constituency vote squeezed, Labour faces a fight even in its heartlands. Labour’s two regional seats could go if the results in Mid and West Wales are similarly dire.

A best case scenario would be a loss of 8 seats, taking Labour down to 22 and all but requiring a coalition with Plaid Cymru to retain any hope of retaining power. A cataclysmic failure, including losses in Newport West and Clwyd South, would leave the party scrambling for survival on 20 seats and the Conservatives as the largest party. 7 UKIP AMs are likely to be inaugurated as well, creating the largest centre-right grouping in the Assembly’s history. With losses on this scale under Corbyn’s leadership not only possible but probable, it is unsurprising that both current and former first ministers are sounding the alarm at the prospect of his victory.

Corbyn has repeatedly praised the Welsh Government and has, more so than any other candidate, laid claim to the mantle of Bevan. It is ironic that he would accomplish what successive Conservative leaders have failed to and deliver the Principality to Tory control – bringing despair in place of hope.