Everything to play for

By Julian Ware-Lane / @warelane

This table shows the General Election outcomes since universal suffrage (click to enlarge).

Those held before 1950 were fought in extraordinary circumstances and no valid parallels can be drawn with today.

For the Conservatives to win at the next election, they need to gain over 120 seats. This table demonstrates that only Tony Blair achieved those sorts of gains since 1945, and his starting position was far more favourable. This does not mean that David Cameron’s task is impossible, just that it is a sizeable task – history is not on his side.

Some in the blogosphere are talking of a Tory landslide. This is wish fulfilment. This would require a 1931 type sea-change. I remind readers that the 1931 election occurred against a backdrop of the Labour leader (Ramsay MacDonald) committing treachery against his own party.

There is everything to play for.