Poll List: Tory slump sticking but Labour not capitalising

By Alex Smith / @alexsmith1982

A new ICM poll for tomorrow’s Telegraph shows the recent Tory slipping has stuck – but that Labour have failed to take full advantage. The poll shows the Tories down two points on 40%, with Labour unchanged on 29% and the Liberal Democrats on 19%.

The poll would suggest recent hopes for a hung parliament may be premature; transferred to an election these new numbers would result in a Tory majority of 20. If the Tories hit 40% in the general election – which is likely – Labour will need at least 31% for a hung parliament. To retain a majority, Labour will need to change the game completely.

The task now will be for Labour to take advantage of the Tories’ failure to seal the deal. While recent polls have shown the Conservatives support is fragile, Labour has yet to capitalise with its own consistent increase. The gap is likely to continue to narrow over the next six months, but time is shortening.

In a second poll for tomorrow’s Times, the Tory lead has reverted back to 13 points, which is much the same place it was immediately after conference season.