YouGov general election MRP poll: Labour projected to win 422 seats

Labour has been projected to win 422 seats at the general election in a YouGov mega-poll, while the Tories have been predicted to win 140 seats, in one of a series of major polls released on Monday.

YouGov’s multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) model predicted that Labour would win a majority of 194 seats, which the pollster said would be the “second largest majority in British political history”.

The poll projected that the Liberal Democrats would become the third largest party in Westminster on 48 seats, while the Scottish National Party’s total number of MPs would fall to 17.

The model – which uses survey data from almost 60,000 respondents – predicted that Labour would become the largest party in Scotland with 34 seats, ahead of the SNP on 17, the Tories on five and the Liberal Democrats on one.

It also suggested Labour would win an impressive 28 of the 32 seats up for grabs in Wales, making gains at the expense of the Conservatives.

READ MORE: UK general election poll tracker: Daily roundup on how polls look for Labour

But in concerning news for Labour, the model projected that the Green Party would win Bristol Central – held in its previous form by Labour frontbencher Thangam Debbonaire. YouGov also predicted that the Greens would keep hold of Brighton Pavilion, which has been held by the party since 2010.

The pollster said its model “shows the ‘Red Wall’ being completely repaired”, however. It projected that the 42 post-boundary review seats that succeeded those identified as forming the Red Wall in 2019 would all be won by Labour – all apart from two by double-digit margins.

The model also predicted considerable Labour gains in the so-called ‘Blue Wall’ of south England, with 19 of the 45 successor seats to that grouping being won by Labour, 13 by the Liberal Democrats and just 13 being held on to by the Tories.

Another MRP poll from More in Common and The News Agents podcast, also released today, projected that Labour would win 382 seats at the general election on July 4th, while the Tories would win 180.

A third major poll released today by Redfield and Wilton put Labour on 46% of the vote – 26 percentage points ahead of the Tories on 20%. The poll of 10,000 people suggested a strong showing for Reform UK on 14% ahead of the Liberal Democrats on 10% and the Greens on 5%.

LabourList has been rounding up the latest polling news in our general election tracker, publishing the results of the main UK pollsters as they are released during the campaign. You can keep up to date with the latest here.

Read more of our 2024 general election coverage here.

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