‘Back Burnham over Brexit’

The Prime Minister has chosen to begin this week on a firm footing, by doubling down against Brexiteers as he looks for ways to progress Britain out of its decade of low growth.

Burnham first appeared to make this one of his missions as PM in his unforgettable conference speech, where he outlined that he believes the evidence shows Brexit “had done more harm than good”.

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As someone who has been saying this for the entire time I’ve been actively interested in politics, this truly was music to my ears in Liverpool. Finally, I thought, we have someone willing to grab one of the biggest stinging nettles Labour has been too afraid to really deal with over the past ten years.

There is nothing wrong at all with the analysis that Brexit split our country almost exactly in half. Any attempts to approach this before, including Keir Starmer’s EU summit, led to cries of outrage at “Brexit betrayal”, as those on the right began seeking to whip up their frenzy if anyone made a suggestion about our relationship to our largest trading partner, other than ignoring that Europe exists.

While Burnham argues public mood has shifted, and that the politicians are behind on this matter, I am still convinced that this political nettle will sting.

People continue to recognise themselves as ‘Remainers’ or ‘Leavers’ based on how they voted – or in my case – would have voted. To restrict such a complicated discussion to nothing more than a “this or that” outcome, without ever really having to explain what one of those options actually meant at the time, was always going to cause friction socially – and we certainly saw that play out over the last decade.

It allowed for the perfect climate of those with vested interests to skewer the narrative of one side of the campaign and appeal to emotions, because they could pitch the change option in ‘Leave’ as whatever way most benefitted you, without having any of the responsibility to ensure it happened like that once voted for. This embedded people in their resilience for the cause, despite any evidence of economic harm.

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The products of Brexit saw the Tory Party tear itself apart over and over again, pushing the nation into political turmoil and delivering us Boris Johnson and Liz Truss as a result. It saw Labour struggle to maintain its relationship with its red-wall heartlands as it struggled to establish a position that would please everyone. And, most problematically, it delivered Britain the far-right parties that battle for attention online with the same vicious approach as two dogs scrapping over the same bone.

Its impact has been a mess on our politics and a mess on our society. Certainly, I would agree, it has done more harm than good. However, given the strong nature of feeling and high potential of significant backlash that Labour would have faced if they had previously tried to advocate for a rethought relationship with Europe, I appreciate why politicians were so fearful of touching this topic with a barge pole for some time, especially after 2019.

But while the social fallout may be complex, the economic evidence has been clear. Consistently we see economists outline how much of a damage Brexit has had on British growth and GDP over the last decade. Estimates suggest that the UK economy is between six and eight per cent smaller as a result of this decision. Potentially hundreds of billions of pounds lost for our economy each year – and honestly, for what real gain? I certainly don’t remember one of the key points of the Leave campaign being “Vote Leave and receive a significantly smaller economy” – do you?

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It is this that leads me to the conclusion that Burnham has been incredibly brave in opting for a refreshed approach to our relationship with Europe to be a key point in his ‘new social contract for the 21st century’. Coming under fire for doing so is to be expected, as the Brexiteers bring out their decade-old arguments and look to use this point as a means to stir up anger towards the PM.

Burnham is right to say that the context has changed. He is right to say that it would be a ‘dereliction of duty’ not to pursue a better deal with Europe when the next summit happens in November. He is right to call out those who oppose this as lacking ambition for British growth. The economic evidence all points in exactly this direction.

But he is also right to seek consent from the public over a rethink of our relationship with Europe. No one wants to see a further breakdown of social cohesion in an already challenging societal moment.

But surely, we all want to see growth for Britain, and this seems a very pragmatic way to help us achieve that. The hard part will be putting the argument to the wider public that may not want to listen. As Labour members, it would be a dereliction of our duty not to support Burnham with this wholeheartedly – because he’s going to need all the help he can get.

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