Ben Cooper column: ‘Labour can rebuild the middle ground on immigration’

The issue of immigration and asylum dominates British politics. For some commentators, migration is seen as only the concern of Reform voters, and that the government is somehow pandering to them by talking about the issue. That is not the case. For voters, it is frequently judged the most or second most important issue facing the country. Concern about the topic unites many voters across the political spectrum, including those who vote Labour. 

Since the government took office, they have made real progress on cutting net migration and securing the border. Official statistics state that net migration fell by 48 percent last year, compared to 2024. Small boat arrivals have dropped 11 percent compared to when Labour took office, effectively the lowest level since 2021. As the Prime Minister said at Labour conference, “the government has begun to restore our grip over the system.”

However, after two years, there is widespread dissatisfaction with the government’s performance on immigration and asylum. Recent Fabian-YouGov polling found 61 percent of British people were either very or somewhat dissatisfied. Just 13 percent said they were either very or somewhat satisfied. Even Labour 2024 voters are more likely to be dissatisfied than satisfied.  

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However, while voters are dissatisfied with Labour’s handling of immigration, Burnham has the strongest trust profile with Britain on the issue of any leader likely to be Prime Minister after the next election. While his ratings are net negative at -16 percent, they are vastly superior to Nigel Farage’s -40 percent.  

But relatively strong personal ratings are not enough for voters to trust in migration policy again. Voters want an immigration and asylum system that embodies their values – and takes their concerns seriously. That requires politicians to engage with the reality of what voters want, not caricatures.

The data suggests voters prioritise control over the migration system, not simplistic cuts in overall migration numbers. When asked what the single main principle of the system should be, 29 percent of British people said stopping illegal migration and removing those who have no right to be here and 15 percent said expecting those in the UK to abide by British values and laws such as gender equality, LGBT rights, and mutual respect. Just six percent selected significant reducing overall migration as the main principle for the migration system. Only Reform 2024 voters are out of touch with this mainstream, more likely to focus on restriction and cuts to legal migration than a focus on British values and laws.  

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Contribution is another unifying principle for the migration system. When asked what the government should be mainly concerned with when someone comes to the UK, 66 percent of Britons said ‘the ability to contribute and have a job’ – compared to just 10 percent for ‘the ethnicity and country of origin’ of an individual. Even Reform 2024 voters are twice as likely to lean towards contribution and having a job than ethnicity and country of origin (52 percent against 25 percent). 

Taken together, the British people are nuanced in their opinion on migration. For voters, strong borders are non-negotiable, and they have a firm belief that tackling illegal migration must be prioritised. They expect that people who come to the UK should contribute, abide by our laws, and have a job. But they are less focused on how low the net migration rate can be driven. And they reject the rhetoric of the far right who focus on race and nationality. This is the real migration ‘middle ground’. It unites Labour 2024 voters, whether they agree with the government’s policy or are disaffected by it. Only Reform 2024 voters are likely to be turned away, but they were never part of Labour’s electoral coalition. 

Britain is dissatisfied with the government on migration. Voters want control, clear rules and contribution. Andy Burnham has a chance to rebuild trust around this middle ground. His conference speech showed that he understands that.

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