Welsh Labour must rebuild progressive coalition, review finds

Welsh Labour must restore its focus on issues voters value most and rebuild a rapport with progressive voters to win back trust and support, an independent review into the party’s election loss has found.

May’s Senedd election saw Welsh Labour reduced to single digits in the Senedd and pushed into third place with just 11 percent of the vote.

A clearer political identity

The report, ‘The Road Back to Victory’, concludes that the party needs to establish a clearer political identity and relationship with the UK-wide party and strengthen their campaign machine for the digital age.

It found that just a quarter (26 percent) of voters who backed Welsh Labour in either the 2021 Senedd election or 2024 general election backed the party in May, with a plurality (34 percent) switching to Plaid Cymru, with 11 percent to Reform UK.

However, the report stresses there is hope for recovery, with almost three-quarters (74 percent) of those who abandoned Welsh Labour in the Senedd election not ruling out supporting the party again in the future.

Gradual loss of support

The review, led by Professor Anand Menon of PF Global, draws on polling, interviews with those involved in the election campaign, submissions from members and analysis of previous election results.

It found that Welsh Labour’s result in May was the result of a gradual loss of support from younger, more progressive voters, who were attracted to other parties on the left. The report notes that those voters tended to be women, on lower incomes and more likely to identify as Welsh than those who stuck with Welsh Labour in May.

The report said: “Many of these voters lack the inherited, generational loyalty of Labour’s core, judging the party more on delivery. Appealing to these voters again is a key part of rebuilding an electoral coalition.”

The review highlighted the impact of Plaid Cymru’s victory in the Caerphilly by-election in October 2025, which then prompted voters to perceive the Senedd election as a competition between Plaid and Reform, with Welsh Labour’s usual squeeze messaging working against it.

Slow, cautious and unpopular

The party’s campaign in the run-up to the election also came under scrutiny, with falling volunteer numbers, delayed candidate selections and manifesto – which missed some print deadlines, and a top-down digital approach that was perceived as “slow and cautious”.

While the unpopularity of the UK Labour government under Keir Starmer was highlighted as a significant factor in the result, 39 percent of Labour switchers said their dissatisfaction was driven by both governments in Westminster and in the Senedd, compared to 29 percent citing only the UK-wide government.

Polling for the report found that, while most blamed Westminster for the cost of living and immigration, the Senedd government was considered most to blame for the state of the NHS, schools and housing by a plurality of voters.

‘No sense of strategy’

Although Welsh Labour attempted to establish a distinctive identity from the UK-wide party, the review found that the ‘Red Welsh Way’ and ‘Power in Partnership’ messaging did not provide clear policy objectives, with demands around devolving policing not speaking to the key issues voters had on the doorstep. 

One Welsh Labour member and local post-holder said: “We had no sense of a strategy, no-one ever discussed with us what Welsh Labour actually wanted us to be talking about or focusing on.”

While Burnham’s premiership has seen a boost to Labour’s national opinion polls, the ‘Burnham bounce’ has not translated into increased support for Welsh Labour for the next Senedd election. However, the report said Burnham’s appointment as Prime Minister offers a chance for Welsh Labour to reset.

More progressive approach

“A new UK leader, particularly one seeking a more progressive approach to everyday concerns, offers Welsh Labour an opportunity to rebuild goodwill. Nonetheless, the party still needs to define a durable relationship with UK Labour that holds regardless of the national party’s popularity,” it said.

Crucially, the review offers a pathway for Welsh Labour to return to power in the Senedd, with two-thirds (65 percent) of Plaid voters in 2026 open to voting Labour next time.

In order to win back support, the report concluded Welsh Labour needs to go back to basics – reconnect with the core issues voters care about, clearly distinguish themselves from the UK-wide party, and introduce leader Ken Skates to Welsh voters, along with a positive vision for Wales.

On policy, the report said: “Welsh Labour should define standing up for Wales by what it delivers on the issues voters care about most: the NHS, the cost of living and the economy. This is ground the party has historically owned, and it is where voters, including those who have moved to other parties, judge whether a party is on Wales’ side.

“Adopting rivals’ definitions of Welshness is more likely to strengthen their hand than to win voters back.”

The review looks to the performance of the Socialists in Catalonia as a lesson to learn. After losing an election to nationalist parties that later became split over the question of independence, the Socialists “recovered through a more conciliatory approach: acknowledging demands for greater self-government… and refocusing politics on public services and effective government.”

Steady purpose, clear goals

However, the report stresses the need to act decisively and quickly and said: “Research finds that voting for a party also builds attachment to it, so the longer switchers stay with parties like Plaid, the harder they become to win back.

“In acting quickly, the party’s strategy should be a steady purpose rather than a rigid plan: clear goals, clear decision-makers with the authority to act, regular checks against the evidence, and a way for staff and campaigners to raise concerns.”

Skates: ‘The work starts now’

In a foreword of the report, Welsh Labour leader Ken Skates said: “The message running through this report is clear. People want a Welsh Labour Party that understands their lives, stands up for their communities and delivers on what matters: an NHS they can rely on, secure jobs, decent homes and relief from the cost of living.

“Our task is to show how our values can meet those needs today. We should be proud of what Labour has achieved for Wales, while being honest about where we fell short and ambitious about what must change.

“The work starts now. Together, we can build a Welsh Labour Party worthy of renewed trust and ready to serve every part of Wales.”

‘Open and transparent approach’

Editor of LabourList Emma Burnell said: “Welsh Labour should be commended for the open and transparent way they have approached this work.

“This report is hard reading at times. It is comprehensive and honest about where Welsh Labour has failed and the work that will be needed to rebuild.

“But there is also a real sense of optimism too. No one is unaware of the difficulties that lie ahead, but this report and the way it has been put at the front and centre of this conference demonstrates a Welsh Labour with a real drive to learn lessons and start the work of the fight back in Wales.”