Douglas Alexander: The state of the race

Douglas Alexander has given a speech in London this afternoon on the state of the election race so far, in which he said:

“Don’t get me wrong, this election is still going to be tough for Labour. But we are most certainly in the game, and, following last night, the game is changing and opening up. The doubts people had about David Cameron, according to his team before the event, were going to be dispelled by last night’s event. Instead the doubts were amplified.”

You can read the full text of the speech below:

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It’s great to be here at the headquarters of Labour’s London campaign.

I want to start by paying tribute to the work that you and thousands of activists across the capital who have been tirelessly campaigning for both our Parliamentary candidates and our council candidates – knocking on doors, bashing the phones and engaging voters in a conversation about the big choices that Londoners face at this election.

You are all the unsung heroes of Labour’s campaign and I know that you are up for this fight – the toughest election fight for Labour in a generation.

For any of us involved in the campaign, today feels a little like the day after the night before. But today – after ten days of campaigning – it is a good time to pause and reflect on what we’ve learned about each of the campaigns and the impact of the debate, and to look ahead to the choices facing the country in this election and at how the campaigns will develop in the weeks ahead.

Let me start by a look back. There is barely a commentator in the land who did not think when this election was called that David Cameron would be PM by May 7. A sustained poll lead, the economic crisis, the expenses scandal, the wear and tear of 13 years in government, a new leader presenting a new youthful face to the world.

It was his election to lose. Just as it was his debate to lose last night.

And because last night he lost the debate, there are few commentators today who do not think that the election landscape has changed.

It was a great event for the campaign, and for democracy.

And as we said last night, Gordon won on substance, Mr Clegg won on style, and said a lot of th ings people like to hear. Mr Cameron lost all round. And it now means that – if I am being frank – none of us can be sure of the outcome. Anything is possible.

But what I believe last night signalled is that, having focussed on debate style and technique, the election debate will in the days and weeks ahead move more to policy and substance because the public will demand it and that is where I believe we are strong and our opponents are weak.

In government, you have to get used to relentless scrutiny, your policies, decisions and personalities being taken apart by your opponents. As leader of the Tory Party, Mr Cameron has had some of that, but not much. Last night the scrutiny intensified and he seemed to be a man who does not like pressure and does not stand up to it well.

The 90 minutes debate format proved a lot more challenging to him than the 90 second TV clip. Beneath the generalities, it was revealed that there was just a lot more generality. The m aster of the soundbite, the enthusiastic presenter of the PMQs jibe, fared less well than expected at “answer time”.

As leader of the third party, Mr Clegg was always bound to gain from equal billing and he presented his case well. But his policies have yet to come under real scrutiny. That scrutiny, too, is likely to intensify now. People will be in for some surprises about the content of Lib Dem policies.

But what is really exciting about this election now is that last night generated a real sense of debate in the country. 9.9 million viewers turned on and tuned in. The reports we are getting from round the country is that people really engaged, really listened, and now want to know more.

So upon that new landscape, post debate, all of the parties will be wanting to play to their strengths. Ours is a record to be proud of, but more importantly a coherent, credible costed plan for the future, underpinned by values still in tune with the times. It is a Part y re-energised by the debate.

For the Tories the reassessment must be more fundamental. As I watched the debate last night I realised David Cameron was having his Al Gore debate moment.

Let me explain. In Boston on 3 October 2000, Al Gore sailed into the first Presidential Debate with sky high expectations of a clear victory given his strength as a debater.

In a debate still remembered for Gore’s long deep sigh, his weaker than expected performance caused a real dilemma to his team.

A dilemma both of style and substance. How could he get his approach better on both presentation and the policies in the second debate?

Now Cameron’s handlers are smart and hungry for power. I sense already they will be reassessing how he uses anecdotes, how he suggests empathy, how much he should go on the offensive or play defence next week in Bristol. None of us can now be sure which David Cameron will turn up at next week’s debate. We can only be certain that he will try to make it different from the one we saw last night.

But beneath this problem – of a style that didn’t deliver, Mr Cameron’s handlers have a much deeper problem – a strategy that isn’t working.

For what was most extraordinary of all last night was that Mr Cameron, within less than two days of his manifesto launch, dropped his so called Big Idea of the Big Society. His own big idea – the Big Society – itself became the ‘Great Ignored’ (another strategy dumped as quickly as it was born).

We can only assume that is because he has learned from the huge polling operation his party does every night – as we have learned from our smaller operation – that the public found his presentation on the Big Society, and his now forgotten invitation to join the government, a scary proposition: that what it means is government withdrawing, DIY public services, security removed, a risk to the services the public rely on from their government, an invitation for people already struggling to work and raise families.

I felt Gordon was at his strongest last night when contrasting Labour’s thought through plan for the economy and public services with the risk now posed by the Tories, not just to the recovery, but the provision and protection of crucial areas of the public services at a time they need proper support.

Don’t get me wrong, this election is still going to be tough for Labour. But we are most certainly in the game, and, following last night, the game is changing and opening up. The doubts people had about David Cameron, according to his team before the event, were going to be dispelled by last night’s event. Instead the doubts were amplified.

This is the first post-economic crisis election. We are now in the post-TV debate phase of it. It is an exciting place for any politician to be. I hope the public share my enthusiasm for what last night did for our politics. I hope Labour activist s share my enthusiasm for the battle ahead.

This coming week, Labour will focus to the central issue of this campaign – the economy.

Because the economy is at the front of voters’ minds.

Because at this election, jobs and the recovery are firmly on the ballot paper.

Because this, more than any election since 1992, is an economy election.

So looking to the week ahead, we will see a sharp focus on the economy – the issue that is going to run through the whole campaign.

We’ve seen some encouraging signs over recent days that Britain is making progress on the fragile road to recovery. The OECD have predicted that the UK economy will grow at the second fastest rate of the G7 major economies for the second quarter of this year, though they also highlighted that the economy is still fragile and that it is vital that support shouldn’t be removed too quickly.

Next week important new statistics will be released on what is happening to levels of unemployment, consumer prices, and growth. And we should all be clear: the recovery is not yet secure, unemployment is still a risk, and so we must do nothing to put our economic future in jeopardy.

This coming week will be about what we will do to secure the recovery, to raise family living standards, to create industries and jobs of the future.

So 10 days into the campaign, we can draw the following conclusions.

The Debate has energised this contest.

Many voters have not yet made up their minds.

The election is now wide open.

There is everything to play for.

A sceptical public is taking a long hard look at all the parties before making its choice.

And if it is a battle on substance and a battle for the policy agenda of the future, it is a battle we can win.