First campaign poll shows Labour up and Tories down

By Alex Smith

UPDATE: YouGov’s tracking poll shows:

Con 37 (-3), Lab 32 (nc), LD 19 (+2)

A new Populus poll for tomorrow’s Times – the first to be entirely conducted since the election was called – shows the Tories down one point on the last major Populus poll in February to 39%, with Labour up two points to 32%. The Lib Dems are on 20%.

The poll, translated to a general election on a uniform swing, would deliver a hung parliament, with the Tories 30 seats short of a working majority on 296 seats, to Labour’s 276, according to UK Polling Report.

The Times says:

“The main positive for Labour is that the number of people thinking that the economy as a whole will fare well over the next year has risen from 37 to 42% since early February, compared with a low of 18% in January 2009.

The number thinking the economy will do badly has dropped to 52% from 58% two months ago, and 79% in January 2009. Similarly, the number expecting them and their families to do well over the next year is now 54%, against 41% badly. This compares with a 51/45% two months ago.

This turnaround in optimism has narrowed the lead of Mr Cameron and George Osborne as most trusted on the economy. The number putting the Tory team ahead has dropped to 36%, from 39% in early February, and a peak of 46% last December.

This compares with 30% trusting Mr Brown and Alistair Darling, down from 32% in February and last December.

However, when Nick Clegg and Vince Cable are added to the choice, the Tory team’s lead narrows further, to 29%, against 25% for the Brown/Darling team and 13% for the Liberal Democrats.

The most worrying finding for Mr Cameron is that two-fifths (41%) believe that, while it seems like “time for a change” from Labour, they are not sure “it is time for a change” to the Conservatives. Just 34% believe it is time for a change for the Tories and 18% believe it does not seem like time for a change from Labour.”

The YouGov tracker poll will follow later.