Is there a third way for Thursday’s referendum?

By Sarah Hayward / @sarah_hayward

On the first Thursday of May in 2012, 2014 and 2015 (if the coalition goes the distance), I shall be voting Labour. I know this, in the extreme case, more than four years in advance. I guess there’s an outside chance that Ed Miliband has a damascene conversion to fully support the Tories’ destruction of the NHS and I might reconsider but barring that, yes – I know how I’m going to vote.

In less than 48 hours time polls open for the AV referendum (there are no locals in London where I live), and, for the first time in my life I still have no idea how to vote. Opinionated and forthright is my perpetual state of being. This is truly uncharted territory. And I’m not alone.

Most of the people I spoke to over the weekend, politically engaged, aware of the issues, also don’t know. It’s not that they don’t care about electoral reform. It’s that they can’t decide between what’s on offer.

The problem with this referendum is it’s a choice between two inadequate systems. We have a multi-party democracy and first past the post fails to recognise smaller parties that have a significant voter following. As AV is a majoritarian system that also ultimately encourages the election of the larger parties, because at least one of the big three will figure in almost every voter’s preferences somewhere.

There’s been no national debate or consultation about whether either system is fit for a country with a plurality of political views. The options on the table on Thursday were cooked up in a smoke free room during the coalition negotiations last May. If Cameron and Clegg were ever able to be so candid with the public they’d probably acknowledge it was the most Cameron could offer and the least Clegg could take without either one infuriating their MPs and grassroots to the point of political suicide for either.

This is hardly a good basis for a decision to change the voting system.

So how do I make up my mind?

I could go the really cynical route and choose to kick one or other of the coalition parties. But, despite what many commentators say (usually with an AV agenda mind), I don’t think the result will do anything other than cause a bit of mild turbulence for the coalition. The Lib Dems certainly aren’t in a position to throw their toys out of the coalition pram. Forcing an early general election would be genuine suicide – Thursday’s local election results will give a clearer indication of how much they’re stuck clinging to the life raft. But that’s where they are.

In the now unlikely event of a Yes victory, Cameron will be able to manage his party. I’m sure of it. Tory MPs will be hopeful of taking an overall majority at the next general, and appearing publicly divided over an issue that most voters don’t care about will damage that aspiration. No there’s no real way to cause anything other than a bit of mild discomfort.

So I could vote on which system I prefer. But for me, and seemingly large numbers of other people, I don’t prefer either. To me, a fully paid up member of the proportional representation club, it’s like choosing between being punched in the face or punched in the stomach. The campaigns have been so lacklustre, unimaginative, and in many cases downright insulting to anyone who’s left primary school, that no killer argument or fact has cut through to persuade me. So I’ve done my own research and still, I’m completely non-plussed by either voting system.

So I could decide not to vote. But that’s not in my DNA. I can’t not vote. I’ve got a good rousing speech practised over many years of Labour doorstep that motivates people who are disinclined to, to vote. I’d feel like a charlatan next time if I hadn’t voted this time.

So, I’m left I think, at the point of spoiling my ballot paper.

I’m regularly an election agent. It’s counterintuitive to me to spoil my ballot. I’ve laughed and cried at the stupid and mad things people do, proactively or by mistake, to disenfranchise themselves. I also know they aren’t properly counted. There is no quorum in our elections. But here I am.

If I’m to spoil my ballot, and it’s going to have any impact I need some fellow travellers. I can’t find numbers for spoiled ballots in the 1975 referendum, but in normal elections they’ll usually account for a low single digit percentage of the ballots. So we’d need to make the spoils statistically significant and anecdotally recordable by the counting agents, election monitors and journalists who’ll be at the count.

If there’s significant numbers of you who feel as excluded from the choices on offer, let me know it the comments and let’s do it. Let’s demand a real debate and a real choice on electoral reform. We can use a single phrase like, No to AV, Yes to PR or No to AV, yes to real reform and in significant numbers it could become the talking point of the count.

It’s also attractive to me, because I think whichever way the vote goes on Thursday the Tories will try to use it as a reason to close down the reform debate for at least a generation – if the spoils are big, this really could keep the issue alive.

The more I think about it, the more the slightly bonkers option seems to me the only logical thing to do.

So, what I’d like to know is: Who’s with me?