Labour take 12 point lead in the capital

24th April, 2015 3:30 pm


The latest YouGov survey for the Evening Standard is out and Labour are still ahead of the Tories in London by a significant amount: they’ve got a 12 point lead.

This is down by one point since the YouGov last did this poll in March, however it does look like the party are set to win at least two thirds of their target seats in the capital.

The paper’s constituency analysis shows Labour taking between 8 and 10 of the target seats, six of them currently Tory-held. This includes in Harrow East, where Uma Kumaran is the candidate and they call Bermondsey and Old Southwark, where Lib Dem Simon Hughes has been the MP for 32 years, a “danger zone”.

Meanwhile, two of the smaller parties – UKIP and the Greens – seem to be picking up slightly more support since last month’s survey. The full results read at follows:

Lab 44% (-1) , Con 32% (-2), UKIP 10% (+2), Lib Dem 8% (NC), Greens 5% (+1)

The slight increase in support for UKIP and the Greens comes from the other three parties. YouGov have said that Ukip are picking up 14% of their support from people who voted Tory  in 2010 and 5% comes from people who voted Labour. For the Greens, most of defections come from the Lib Dems.

When broken down in terms of gender, women are far more likely to vote Labour than they are Conservative:

Female Male
Con 28 35
Lab 47 41
Lib Dem 8 8
Ukip 12 8
Green 4 6

Among ABC1s (those on higher incomes) and C2DEs (those on lower incomes) Labour fare well at 45% and 41% respectively, while the Conservatives are on 33% and 30% respectively. That surprisingly high lead for Labour among wealthier voters could lead to some unexpected results on May 7th.

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