Strong Labour ground campaign putting big-swing marginals into play

Labour are out-campaigning the Conservatives in every marginal seat polled by Lord Ashcroft this week.

Ashcroft has polled 10 Tory constituencies that would take a swing of over 5% to be taken by Labour in this election – and in every single one more voters have been contacted by Labour than the Tories. In some of the seats, this is clearly paying off, with Labour edging ahead on current voting intention with large swings.

The results can roughly be divided into four groups: there are the ones where Labour are slightly ahead; the ones that are a dead heat; the ones with slight Tory leads; and the ones where the Tory lead remains quite large.

Labour are ahead in Crewe & Nantwich by 3 points, Finchley & Golders Green by 2 points, and Milton Keynes South by 2 points. The biggest swing is in Crewe & Nantwich, the scene of 2008’s crushing by-election defeat, which shows a 7.5% swing to Labour.

In the Lancashire seats of Rossendale & Darwen and South Ribble there is nothing to separate the Conservatives and Labour. In Rossendale & Darwen, Labour see the biggest boost to their voteshare, rising 10 points – but the Tory vote has stayed solid, with UKIP polling one of their worst results there.

In Cleethorpes and Dudley South the Tories hold small lead of 2 and 4 points respectively, suggesting Labour may still be in play, while they hold leads of 8 points in Dover, 10 points in Harlow, and 16 points in North East Somerset.

As with the polls last week, there is no clear rule for judging where UKIP and Green votes come from. They are all improving their support, but while in some places low UKIP support can mean high Conservative support, in seats such as Dover they both do incredibly well. The Green Party’s impact is less pronounced, although their high of 8% in North East Somerset correlates to Labour’s worst result.

All of the seats feature on Labour’s 106 seat target list. However, the seat highest up the target list, Milton Keynes (69), sees a small Tory lead, while the lowest down the list, Finchley & Golders Green (89), sees Labour marginally ahead.

You can see the tables below, via Lord Ashcroft Polls (click to enlarge), or click here to see the contact rates for the seats: