Labour must offer popular, big-tent politics to reach out to voters in 2020

Victory for the Labour party in 2020 is going to be more than twice as difficult to achieve as in 2015, according to new research published by the Fabian Society today. The society has looked at the likely effects of scheduled boundary changes and concluded that Labour will need to win at least 106 seats to secure a majority. Worse still, the electoral swing required in the decisive marginal seats will be over twice that which Labour needed for victory in 2015.

The ‘victory line’ could be constituencies like Harlow in England and Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeathin Scotland, both of which require a swing of almost 10 percentage points for Labour to win. By contrast, in 2015, Labour would have needed a swing of under 5 points to gain the seats that would have delivered a majority.

This assumes that Labour can recover at the same pace in each nation of Great Britain. Of course, things will get even harder if the party makes little progress in Scotland. In that case an epic swing would be needed in England and Wales and the party’s share of the vote would have to be higher south of the border than at any time since 1997.

That’s the position with respect to a UK majority. But now Labour also needs to think about an English majority, to be able to pass legislation for England under the Conservative plans announced in the Queen’s Speech. In a remarkable turn of events, however, it is slightly easier for Labour to secure a majority in England than in the UK as a whole. The party will ‘only’ need to gain 78 seats in England, on a slightly smaller average swing than it needs for a UK victory.

This means that Labour can set aside party interest in thinking about ‘EVEL’ and seek a constitutional settlement that is both fair for England and right for the union. There is a good chance that the 2020 election could result in one of the big parties being able to pass laws in England but not the UK, or vice versa. The result would be constitutional chaos which underscores why Labour should never give up on the goal of a majority.

The lesson from this depressing analysis is that Labour must offer popular, big-tent politics to simultaneously reach deep into middle England, revive support in Scotland and strengthen relationships with disillusioned voters in former heartlands. The litmus test for Labour’s strategy is simple: can the party win over large numbers of people who voted Conservative and SNP in 2015? When Labour is seen as credible, relevant and confident, then voters who deserted the party, in every direction, will start to return together.

Now we know the scale of the challenge, it is up to the leadership challengers to show they have the personal qualities and political vision to respond. On Saturday, the four declared candidates will assemble for the Fabian Leadership Debate to prove they have some answers.

The Mountain to Climb: Labour’s 2020 Challenge by Andrew Harrop is published today.