Everything to play for as Labour’s leadership contests unfold

In our first post-election survey, we asked you about the top jobs up for grabs. The results are in: Rebecca Long-Bailey is first pick for leader, and Angela Rayner is favourite for deputy. That matches up well with reports that the two frontbenchers, who are good friends and flatmates when in London, have struck a deal. As LabourList suggested last week, they are apparently planning to divvy up the roles with ‘true Corbynite’ RLB going for leader and ‘soft left’ Rayner opting for deputy. Both have strong trade union backing, and are clearly popular with members – though there has been disappointment expressed from activists who would rather they switched bids and allowed Rayner, who has a broader base of support, to try for the most senior role.

But our survey results are more interesting than they seem at first glance. Looking at the breakdown of answers for the next leader, Long-Bailey is actually very closely followed by Keir Starmer as well as Rayner. He is a shadow cabinet member, but not considered to be on the left. As you might expect, this does run along factional lines: respondents who backed Starmer in this poll were more likely to select “leadership” as something they would have changed in Labour’s election campaign, and to say that Jeremy Corbyn should already have stepped down. Those who backed Long-Bailey were more likely to choose “Brexit” and “messaging” as problems in the campaign, and to say that Corbyn should stand down “at a time of his choosing”.

Similarly for deputy, Rayner, Starmer and Long-Bailey were closely matched as the top three candidates. Overall in the survey, support for particular MPs was evenly spread, which meant even those coming first, second or third only secured small percentages. It suggests that there is all to play for in these leadership contests. As they unfold, those currently with lower profiles – Lisa Nandy and Clive Lewis, for instance – are likely to rise up the rankings, too.

With Yvette Cooper looking unlikely to join the race, many Corbynsceptics are excited by the prospect of Jess Phillips running for leader. But others privately say that she is probably a stretch too far for the Labour Party. That’s why the Labour membership would need to be reconstituted for her to get a look-in – and that may be why she is paying on Facebook to boost a link to join the party.

There is some confusion on this point. It has been reported that Labour’s ruling body could set an early freeze date to disenfranchise new members. But they can’t do that unless they want to break the current rulebook, which can only be changed at conference. The freeze date now must be at least two weeks after the approved timetable is announced (expected to be January 7th). Yet another example of a faction changing the rules to future-proof their standing in the party, before that rule change then benefits the other side.

I should mention that parliament returns from recess today. MPs will re-elect Sir Linsday Hoyle as Speaker of the Commons, then the swearing-in process will begin. That will continue on Wednesday, another state opening of parliament and Queen’s Speech will follow, then MPs are expected to vote on Boris Johnson’s deal at the end of the week. The Prime Minister has already undertaken a mini-reshuffle, which saw him replace Alun Cairns with Simon Hart and replace with Nicky Morgan who didn’t stand at the election with… Nicky Morgan who is getting a life peerage. It is rumoured Zac Goldsmith, who lost his Commons seat, could benefit from the same arrangement. Our democracy is functioning brilliantly, as you can see.