We need an atrocity prevention strategy as conflict looms over the Balkans

26 years ago today, after talks at an airbase in the middle of America, the last European war of a bloody 20th century came to an end with the signing of the Dayton Agreement, ending over three years of conflict in Bosnia and Herzegovina.

While not without its flaws, the agreement brought about the end of a war that saw the worst of human brutality return to Europe after half a century of relative continental peace. Estimates vary, but it is believed over 100,000 people died during the war, including over 8,000 Bosnian Muslims in the massacre at Srebrenica alone.

Following revelations of the genocide, along with other ethnically driven atrocities, the world declared ‘never again’. Barely a quarter of a century on, the clouds of ethnic conflict are once again on the horizon.

Bosnia-Herzegovina is made up of two entities: the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, consisting predominantly of Bosniak Muslims and Croats, and the Serbian Republika Srpska. Serb separatism is resurgent under the leadership of Milorad Dodik, the political leader of the Serb community and member of the county’s tri-member collective presidency.

With Russian backing, Dodik is fanning the flames of division, risking a return of the destructive ethnic politics that led to conflict barely a generation ago. As in the 1990s, the role of NATO and UK-USA-EU is vital. But unlike the 1990s, we cannot wait for atrocities before acting. If ‘never again’ is to mean anything, we must act now.

The Foreign Secretary was right to convene leaders from across the Balkans for talks this week, and, while there were positive indications from last week’s G7 meeting, stronger action is required if we are to avert a crisis. Dodik and those pushing separatism need to realise there is a cost to their actions, and it must be made clear that NATO will step in to prevent conflict and preserve the integrity of Bosnia and Herzegovina if required.

UK embassies, our global network of diplomats and skilled civil servants are in a prime position to identify situations where atrocities may arise and to act as brokers to mediate and prevent potential conflict. But without a clear approach from the centre, our ambassadors and their teams are exposed, left without guidance or, in many cases, the authority to establish an effective strategy for prevention.

That is why the International Development Committee, which I chair, has launched an inquiry into atrocity prevention, taking the example of Bosnia and Herzegovina as a case study. The inquiry will explore how the FCDO can coordinate efforts to prevent conflict; how we can embed atrocity prevention in our embassies work; empowering our people on the ground to spot early warning signs and engage with communities to halt escalation.

Preventing atrocities is not only a moral imperative, it’s in our national interest. It is cheaper, quicker, more effective and less disruptive than reacting to a crisis. 30 years ago, the world’s inaction and weakness played a central part in allowing the return of genocide to Europe. We cannot make the same mistakes again – the first step should be taking atrocity prevention seriously, and fast.