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Full list of 150 battleground target seats that could be key to a Labour majority

Katie Neame
Martin Suker/ Shutterstock.com

New analysis has revealed 150 of the seats Labour would have come closest to winning in 2019 had the election been fought on new boundaries – constituencies that could prove key to the party securing an overall majority at the next election.

The research from the Fabian Society, released today, identified 150 currently non-Labour seats that it argued “will likely make up a very high proportion of the constituencies that Labour will target”, 125 of which are in England and Wales and 25 in Scotland.

A survey carried out by YouGov on behalf of the Fabian Society found that Labour is leading the Tories by 34 percentage points in the seats identified by the report, compared to a lead of 24 percentage points nationally.

Fabian analysis of the survey also found that the swing to Labour since 2019 in these potential marginals was greater than the swing nationally, at 22 percentage points compared to 17.

But the survey, carried out on January 17th and 18th, revealed that 18% of voters in the 150 seats were undecided about how to vote, while 11% said they intended to back Reform (when those saying don’t know and wouldn’t vote were excluded) – voters that the Fabians’ report argues may yet swing back to the Tories.

Fabian Society research manager and report author Ben Cooper said Labour “is right to argue that there is no room for complacency”, adding: “The significant portion of ‘don’t know’ voters and levels of support for Reform shows that there is still a lot of work to do between now and poling day.”

Labour’s ruling national executive committee was reportedly told this week that the party needs so many seats for a working majority, it cannot put the same resources into all of them given finite and capped campaign cash, with data and intelligence informing where resources go.

The Fabian Society’s research found that Labour winning all the seats up to Earley and Woodley (ranked 125) would result in a Labour majority. Without any gains from the SNP, it found that Labour would need to win all the seats in England and Wales up to Bassetlaw (ranked 150).

The full list of the 150 seats is below, including the party that the Fabian Society estimates would have won in 2019 on the new boundaries:

Ranking Constituency name Notional winner in 2019
Swing required
1 Burnley Con 0.13%
2 Leigh & Atherton Con 0.33%
3 High Peak Con 0.54%
4 Bangor Aberconwy Con 0.77%
5 Wolverhampton West Con 0.92%
6 Bury South Con 0.94%
7 Bury North Con 1.20%
8 Bolton North East Con 1.28%
9 Watford Con 1.35%
10 Chingford & Woodford Green Con 1.47%
11 Wycombe Con 1.59%
12 Birmingham Northfield Con 1.69%
13 Leeds North West Con 1.80%
14 Stroud Con 2.03%
15 Keighley & Ilkley Con 2.11%
16 Stoke-on-Trent Central Con 2.11%
17 Whitehaven & Workington Con 2.17%
18 Lothian East SNP 2.17%
19 Gedling Con 2.22%
20 Walsall & Bloxwich Con 2.40%
21 Peterborough Con 2.47%
22 Vale of Glamorgan Con 2.57%
23 West Bromwich Con 2.60%
24 Cheshire Mid Con 2.66%
25 Wakefield & Rothwell Con 2.67%
26 Ynys Môn Con 2.69%
27 Derby North Con 2.70%
28 Bridgend Con 2.73%
29 Clwyd North Con 2.76%
30 Lancaster & Wyre Con 3.05%
31 Hastings & Rye Con 3.36%
32 Eltham & Chislehurst Con 3.37%
33 Cowdenbeath & Kirkcaldy SNP 3.41%
34 Lincoln Con 3.47%
35 Hyndburn Con 3.48%
36 Broxtowe Con 3.58%
37 Chipping Barnet Con 3.60%
38 Northampton North Con 3.85%
39 Newton Aycliffe & Spennymoor Con 3.93%
40 Hendon Con 4.01%
41 Truro & Falmouth Con 4.04%
42 Wrexham Con 4.18%
43 Hull West & Haltemprice Con 4.35%
44 Blackpool South Con 4.36%
45 Calder Valley Con 4.52%
46 Milton Keynes Central Con 4.70%
47 Southampton Itchen Con 4.74%
48 Clwyd East Con 5.00%
49 Glasgow North East SNP 5.01%
50 Ceredigion Preseli PC 5.14%
51 Darlington Con 5.36%
52 Redcar Con 5.45%
53 Ipswich Con 5.53%
54 Coatbridge & Bellshill SNP 5.54%
55 Altrincham & Sale West Con 5.61%
56 Swindon South Con 5.70%
57 Cities of London & Westminster Con 5.73%
58 Airdrie & Shotts SNP 5.74%
59 Bolsover Con 5.77%
60 Shipley Con 5.78%
61 Crewe & Nantwich Con 5.79%
62 Loughborough Con 5.90%
63 Midlothian SNP 5.92%
64 Rutherglen SNP 5.97%
65 Tipton & Wednesbury Con 6.14%
66 Rushcliffe Con 6.18%
67 Norwich North Con 6.31%
68 Spen Valley Con 6.42%
69 Glasgow South West SNP 6.43%
70 Milton Keynes North Con 6.55%
71 Worcester Con 6.64%
72 Glasgow North SNP 6.72%
73 Rother Valley Con 6.74%
74 Southport Con 6.80%
75 Ashfield Con 6.81%
76 Shrewsbury Con 6.96%
77 Worthing East & Shoreham Con 7.03%
78 Caerfyrddin Con 7.04%
79 Penistone & Stocksbridge Con 7.28%
80 Barrow & Furness Con 7.43%
81 Colne Valley Con 7.50%
82 Filton & Bradley Stoke Con 7.61%
83 Glasgow East SNP 7.62%
84 Uxbridge & South Ruislip Con 7.82%
85 Pembrokeshire Mid & South Con 7.84%
86 Thanet East Con 7.91%
87 Corby & East Northamptonshire Con 8.05%
88 Leeds South West & Morley Con 8.16%
89 Hamilton & Clyde Valley SNP 8.18%
90 Bishop Auckland Con 8.19%
91 Chelsea & Fulham Con 8.21%
92 Crawley Con 8.38%
93 Na h-Eileanan an Iar SNP 8.42%
94 Harrow East Con 8.59%
95 South Ribble Con 8.65%
96 Newcastle-under-Lyme Con 8.73%
97 Bournemouth East Con 8.94%
98 Stevenage Con 8.98%
99 Motherwell, Wishaw & Carluke SNP 9.23%
100 Glasgow South SNP 9.42%
101 Wimbledon Con 9.48%
102 Camborne & Redruth Con 9.55%
103 Inverclyde & Renfrewshire West SNP 9.64%
104 Stoke-on-Trent North Con 9.65%
105 Gloucester Con 9.67%
106 Finchley & Golders Green Con 9.72%
107 York Outer Con 9.85%
108 Rossendale & Darwen Con 9.85%
109 Wolverhampton North East Con 9.92%
110 Macclesfield Con 9.94%
111 Blackpool North & Fleetwood Con 10.11%
112 Monmouthshire Con 10.25%
113 Glasgow West SNP 10.29%
114 Scarborough & Whitby Con 10.33%
115 Dunfermline & Dollar SNP 10.36%
116 Welwyn Hatfield Con 10.40%
117 Hitchin Con 10.42%
118 Dunbartonshire West SNP 10.56%
119 Bolton West Con 10.65%
120 Scunthorpe Con 10.72%
121 Erewash Con 10.86%
122 Bournemouth West Con 10.86%
123 Carlisle Con 11.02%
124 Edinburgh North & Leith SNP 11.03%
125 Earley & Woodley Con 11.05%
126 Glenrothes & Mid Fife SNP 11.06%
127 Colchester Con 11.14%
128 Stockton West Con 11.29%
129 Edinburgh East & Musselburgh SNP 11.29%
130 Hexham Con 11.29%
131 Ossett & Denby Dale Con 11.34%
132 Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland Con 11.44%
133 Dwyfor Meirionnydd PC 11.45%
134 Doncaster East & the Isle of Axholme Con 11.70%
135 Great Grimsby & Cleethorpes Con 11.71%
136 Pendle & Clitheroe Con 11.92%
137 Paisley & Renfrewshire South SNP 11.96%
138 Basingstoke Con 12.02%
139 Bathgate & Linlithgow SNP 12.11%
140 Dover & Deal Con 12.13%
141 Penrith & Solway Con 12.33%
142 Cumbernauld & Kirkintilloch SNP 12.45%
143 Telford Con 12.52%
144 Paisley & Renfrewshire North SNP 12.56%
145 Buckingham & Bletchley Con 12.68%
146 Morecambe & Lunesdale Con 12.75%
147 Derbyshire North East Con 13.04%
148 Rugby Con 13.10%
149 Croydon South Con 13.17%
150 Bassetlaw Con 13.20%

Tags: Fabian Society / Scotland / SNP / Marginal Seats / Target Seats / Labour gains / 2019 general election / 2024 general election / Reform UK /
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