‘Six things to take away from Labour’s Hamilton by-election win’

Life feels very different for Scottish Labour this morning. The expectation-defying victory in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse, is a huge boost to morale.

It disrupts a long-running narrative of decline that had reasserted itself after Labour’s recent Westminster woes, despite earlier optimism.

It’s also a blow to First Minister John Swinney, who had insisted just a week ago that the seat was a two-way fight between the SNP and Reform UK.

And after Reform’s race-tinged attacks on Anas Sarwar, many will take pleasure in the sight of a deflated Richard Tice.

But is Sarwar now on track for Bute House next year? Not so fast. This was a by-election, and Davy Russell won by just 602 votes. Reform, despite its lack of a Scottish policy platform or party machine, took more than a quarter of the vote.

Cutting through the hype, here are six things we do know after last night.

‘Labour’s ground campaign was strong – and Anas Sarwar was at the heart of it’

This is Anas Sarwar’s, and Scottish Labour’s, win. Their ground campaign was strong, especially in the final week, and the Scottish leader was at the heart of it: he’s charismatic and upbeat, especially in person, and was highly visible during the campaign, in the constituency almost every day in the last month.

‘Time it would taken to prepare for debates was better spent on the doorstep’

Labour were canny in how they deployed their candidate. Davy Russell is, in contrast to his party leader, a poor performer in front of the cameras. A car-crash interview with STV News confirmed that impression last week. The counterargument has been that criticism of Russell’s non-appearance at a hustings and a TV debate is laced with snobbery – a symptom of the Holyrood club’s distance from working people. But that is, itself, to patronise: Labour have had plenty of articulate working-class candidates.

A tactical point on Russell’s (non) appearances makes more sense: the time it would have taken to prepare the candidate for those high-profile events was better spent on the doorstep. There, Russell’s reception was strong, and he was able to speak authentically to local concerns. In the end, missing out the TV slots and hustings didn’t matter enough to swing the vote. If that was the gamble, it paid off.

‘Is SNP’s record finally catching up with it?’

This loss stings for the SNP. Swinney was also present and active in the campaign, and made that claim last week that Labour were out of the race. It didn’t work: the SNP still lost 16.8% of their vote – a worse result than the Tories. Could the party’s poor handling of public services and economic management finally be catching up with it?

‘Populist messages land just as well in Scotland as they do in England’

Reform may be the new party of the “scunnered” (Scottish for “deeply unhappy”). Over the last 20 years, the scunnered loaned their votes to the SNP – even if they didn’t support independence. Yesterday, it appears some of that vote either didn’t turn out, or took flight to Reform. If Reform becomes the party of the scunnered more widely, that could damage the SNP next year. And Reform’s performance in this by-election should act as a reminder that its populist messages on immigration and cost of living land just as well in Scotland as they do in England.

‘Polling guru Sir John Curtice was right again’

Professor Sir John Curtice, the polling guru, was correct again. He warned in advance this result would closely reflect national polling. Labour won not because of a surge, but because they just about held on, well down on last year’s General Election numbers, while the SNP crashed. “Nobody should be surprised,” he told the BBC. He predicted a tight race, a low vote share for the winner, and exaggerated claims from whoever emerged victorious. That’s precisely what happened.

‘Sarwar’s message for Westminster: go further and faster on issues voters care about’

Sarwar has a message for London. Since the result came in, he’s repeated a single theme in every interview: Labour in Westminster needs to “go further and faster” on issues voters care about. He says it’s a “clear message” today. Given the work he’s done on the ground, and the victory he and his team has eked out, he’s both qualified and entitled to make the call. The extent to which his London colleagues listen will go a long way to determining whether he can repeat last night’s feat on a national scale next year.

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