Burnham’s honeymoon comes to a close

Andy Burnham has enjoyed a relatively smooth start to life in Downing Street. His first month as Prime Minister has been dominated by a series of announcements aimed at giving voters “breathing space” on the cost of living and addressing issues raised on the doorstep. Likewise, the summer recess has given his government breathing space to find its feet, with Labour benefiting in the polls from Reform being beset by scandal and a farcical by-election in Clacton.

However, that period of relative calm is now coming to an end.

When MPs return to Westminster next week, Burnham will face a series of decisions that will begin to define what his government is actually about – and, crucially, how much of his agenda he can afford to deliver.

His biggest test will be the Budget on October 28. Chancellor John Healey will have to balance Burnham’s promise to ease the pressures facing households, growing demands on public spending, and the commitment to increase defence investment. The government will need to demonstrate it can deliver on those ambitions without unsettling financial markets or storing up problems for later down the line.

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And the Budget is only one of a series of challenges Burnham will face in the coming weeks and months.

Labour’s conference in Liverpool will be the first major gathering of the party faithful under Burnham’s leadership. He will have to win over a sceptical Unite to his cause or risk the conference being the last before the union potentially disaffiliates next year.

There will also no doubt be parliamentary battles along the way. Is Burnham prepared to pursue his long-standing support for proportional representation when it comes to a vote next week? Will the question of welfare reform cause renewed splits within the PLP? And will the Prime Minister stand resolutely behind immigration reforms that have caused concern among some Labour MPs?

And all of that is to make no mention of ongoing crises over the water sector, the state of the nation’s prisons, the health service as winter approaches – and the risk of more extreme weather.

The easy bit of Burnham’s premiership may be coming to an end. The next few months will test his political instincts and demonstrate whether the skills that served him so well in Greater Manchester can translate into governing the nation.

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