‘Why risk the ‘Burnham bounce’ on the oil and gas industry?’

As the fifth heatwave of the summer hits the UK and wildfires have broken out across the country – and the world – due to climate change, speculation has nonetheless grown in Westminster that Andy Burnham’s new Labour government is set to approve new drilling for oil and gas in the North Sea. The government needs to decide whether to grant consent for the Jackdaw and Rosebank oil and gas fields and Donald Trump seems to think it is definitely going to happen.

As the climate crisis escalates at our front door, approving the drilling of new fossil fuels off our shores couldn’t come at a worse time. Climate scientists and experts, including the International Energy Agency, are clear: we cannot drill for new fossil fuels if we are going to limit the worst effects of climate change. That’s because if we drill for new oil and gas, we will burn that oil and gas, and the reality is we need to be scaling back on our use of the fossil fuels we have already taken out of the ground, let alone drilling for more.

New drilling in the North Sea isn’t good economics either. The oil and gas will be sold on international markets and so won’t bring down UK energy bills, and because the North Sea is a dying basin it will be very expensive to extract, which is why big energy companies are asking for tax cuts to do it. It won’t even be good for jobs – Jackdaw will only create 27 direct full time jobs in total. This comes at the expense of a proper plan for workers from these industries who desperately need a transition which secures their communities and their futures.

So why risk the “Burnham bounce” on drilling for new oil and gas in the North Sea?

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Recent polling from More in Common shows Burnham’s surge in support has mostly come from 2024 Labour voters who had switched to the Greens. It seems likely that a run of progressive early announcements, from ending roughsleeping, to the £2 bus fare cap and committing to reform of the broken social care system will have helped to win some of that vote back. But while a renewed focus on the cost of living and our broken economy will be welcome to Labour-Green swing voters, it shouldn’t be underestimated how much these voters also care about climate change.

Polling from Persuasion UK shows that rowing back on net zero and UK efforts to limit climate change, which new drilling in the North Sea would represent, is one of the worst things that the Labour Party can do if they want to avoid losing votes to the Green Party. And according to the polling, backing down on climate action doesn’t even win over former Labour voters who now support Reform. 2024 Labour voters overwhelmingly back renewables investment over new oil and gas and Green voters and Liberal Democrat voters feel the same. If Andy Burnham wants to rebuild a voter coalition to win another Labour majority, backing new drilling in the North Sea doesn’t make sense politically.

That is particularly true given recent YouGov polling showing a sharp rise in concern about the ‘environment’ after record heatwaves, wildfires and drought this summer. There is a danger for the Prime Minister that approving new drilling in the North Sea, at the very moment where the climate crisis is causing serious problems for people across the UK, ends up looking wrong-headed and badly timed. As wildfires continue to burn and British farmers warn of food shortages because of poor harvests, if now is not the time to foreground the climate crisis, when would be? New drilling in the North Sea would do the opposite.

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The “Burnham Bounce” is fragile. It has been built off the back of some decent policies to help people with the cost of living, signals that the Prime Minister is willing to tackle some of the bigger economic and social issues with our country, and significantly better communications to sell those policies to the public.

But drilling for new oil and gas in the North Sea is a much more controversial policy, risking significant political backlash among voters who Andy Burnham needs to win back. It particularly risks looking like a betrayal to young people who will be living with the climate crisis for decades to come. At a time when public trust in politicians is earned, not given, Burnham must consistently build confidence in his administration, not back policies that risk damaging his reputation so early in his government.

Approving Jackdaw or Rosebank is incompatible with the UK’s climate commitments and Andy Burnham will, rightly, be slammed by the climate movement if he backs new drilling in the North Sea. It will open up a clear attack line for Zack Polanski, and voters may once again reject the Labour Party and move to the Greens as result. So when the economics of new North Sea drilling is so poor, and the climate science is clear, why would Burnham bother?

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