Labour members back Budget but split over Rosebank, exclusive poll reveals

Labour members widely endorse the government’s Budget measures, but are divided on approving development of the Rosebank oil field, exclusive polling for LabourList reveals.

Polling conducted by Survation found that almost nine in ten (89 percent) of party members supported John Healey’s first Budget as Chancellor, with only three percent opposed – with similar levels of support recorded for many individual measures outlined on Wednesday.

The temporary increase in the corporation tax surcharge on the banking sector to fund efforts to cut energy bills was the most popular policy among the Labour membership, with 92 percent support, closely followed by plans to scrap gas standing charges (91 percent).

The £100 household energy relief payment, set to be given to 20 million households this winter, received the backing of some 84 percent of Labour members, with only seven percent opposed.

Members were split almost evenly on whether the government should approve the controversial Rosebank oil field, after the Budget’s tax revenue forecasts assumed extraction would be approved.

Some 43 percent of Labour members polled said they would support Rosebank being given the green light, while 41 percent were opposed.

Opposition was strongest among members who backed Rebecca Long Bailey as party leader in 2020, with 66 percent of her backers against any move to approve Rosebank.

A plurality of those who supported Lucy Powell as deputy leader were also against the move (49 percent to 38 percent), while those who backed Bridget Phillipson were comfortably in favour of approving Rosebank (54 percent to 28 percent).

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Over half (53 percent) of members said Healey’s first Budget would give Labour a better chance of winning the next general election, with just four percent believing it worsened Labour’s chances and around a third (35 percent) telling pollsters it would make no difference.

However, Labour members are clear that they do not want to see Andy Burnham rush into calling a general election, with more than three-quarters (78 percent) of the view that the Prime Minister should not call an election within the next year, compared with just 14 percent in favour.

Burnham has repeatedly ruled out calling an early election, telling broadcasters shortly after the Budget: “I don’t know how many times I’ve done this now, but yes, I can rule out calling a general election in the next 12 months.

“I’m not thinking about myself. I’m not thinking about my own party and its prospects.

“We’ve got a 10-year plan to come, and that will inform the spending review next year. These are my priorities, not looking at our own internal party political advantage.”

Emma Burnell, editor of LabourList, said: “Labour members remain happy with what Labour is doing in government. While there are some issues on the horizon – particularly Rosebank – that divide the party, the direction the government has taken has brought the party back together.

“However, Labour members might be happy with the way things are going, but not to the extent they want to gamble it all on an early election. More of them believe this Budget would help when an election comes, but see it as a down payment for more work to be done by Burnham over the coming year.”

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Survation, a member of the British Polling Council and a Market Research Society Partner, surveyed 876 readers of LabourList who said they were Labour Party members between October 28 and 29.

Data was weighted to the profile of party members by age, sex, region and 2025 deputy leadership vote. Targets for weighting were drawn from the British Election Study and the results of the leadership and deputy leadership elections.

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