Two in five voters open to voting Labour at general election, poll reveals

More than two in five voters would consider backing Labour at a general election, polling shared exclusively with LabourList has revealed.

Polling, conducted by The Messina Group, found that Labour had the highest ceiling of support among voters, with 43 percent either considering or planning to vote for the party.

The Conservatives were close behind with 42 percent, followed by the Liberal Democrats (38 percent) and Reform UK (37 percent).

Reform UK and Restore Britain saw the highest number of voters signalling they would never consider backing them at an election, both at 46 percent.

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When asked how they would vote at a general election, Labour was ahead with just over a fifth of support (21 percent) to Reform UK’s 18 percent. However, the two parties were tied among likely voters rather than all respondents, on just over 24 percent each.

The poll, conducted ahead of Andy Burnham’s first speech as Prime Minister at Labour Party conference in Liverpool, also revealed an opportunity for the party to expand its pool of support – with almost one in three voters (32 percent) open to changing their mind about who to vote for come the next general election.

In particular, more than two-thirds of the 10 percent of voters who would vote Green said they would consider voting Labour, opening an opportunity for the party to win back left-leaning voters.

Justin Lines, deputy director of international campaigns for The Messina Group, said: “Our findings reflect a more fragmented political landscape. Labour has the broadest pool of potential support in our research, with 43 percent of the electorate saying they would consider voting for the party.

“Our experiments also suggest that a position in favour of rejoining the EU could increase its appeal among some Green and Liberal Democrat voters.”

The Messina Group surveyed 11,400 voters between September 12 and 24, with data weighted to gender, age, region, education, ethnicity, and their votes in the 2024 general election and 2016 EU referendum.

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