‘Is the NHS 10 year plan Labour’s road to redemption after a bumpy first year?’

The Labour Party is, and perhaps forever will be, tied to the NHS and its fortunes.

Clement Attlee, Harold Wilson, Tony Blair and Keir Starmer all became prime minister with ambitions to redefine the health system by either establishing, reshaping or resurrecting the NHS.

A year into his premiership, Starmer still needs to define his legacy with a clear vision for the country; ‘Starmerism’ as an idea remains elusive. But as with his predecessors, the NHS will in large part define his government and be the measure against which they will be judged in 2029.

Yesterday’s launch of the NHS 10-year plan, the day before the one-year anniversary of that historic election victory could not have come at a better time for a government that is struggling to find a North Star and facing active rebellion on multiple fronts.

Great expectations?

When elected in 2024, 97% of Labour voters believed that they would make a noticeable difference to the NHS. A year in, the NHS has been one of few Labour successes.

Starmer and Health Secretary Wes Streeting can point to a reduction in waiting lists by a quarter of a million, including for cancer diagnoses, and the negotiation of crucial pay settlements. These gains hint that the NHS is becoming, once again, Labour’s best chance of political salvation.

So, what does the plan say?

Streeting, alongside the plan’s chief architects the Institute of Public Policy Research’s Christopher Thomas and Paul Corrigan, has faced the difficult task of balancing this vision for the future, with a tangible retail offer for the electorate.

Labour has identified three shifts towards digital, community care, and prevention. All of which they hope will propel the NHS into a sustainable model, rather than an unruly fiscal vacuum.

The Plan announced yesterday gave cause for optimism. The expansion of the NHS app, further rollout of cutting-edge technology, and British-trained doctors being prioritised for NHS jobs, will poll positively.  In addition, the creation of ‘neighbourhood health services’ will allow the NHS to move power further away from the centre and further embrace the ‘prevention agenda’.

However, many will not be convinced. The NHS and wider healthcare sector are now facing their third vision for the NHS in the past decade. All of which contained well-meaning (and remarkably similar) ideas, yet none of which have made a lasting impact because proposed changes have often become too difficult – or too expensive – to achieve.

Where next?

As ever, the politics within this plan are stark and unavoidable. The rumours of significant rewrites due to earlier drafts not being ‘retail’ enough show how much this 10-year plan is about improving current polling. To put it bluntly, Labour advisers see successes in the NHS as a stick with which to beat back Farage and Reform.

In addition to the significant financial capital being invested into the NHS as part of this plan – at a time of enormous fiscal constraint – the level of political capital invested cannot be underestimated. Both Chancellor Rachel Reeves and Streeting have gambled on the success of this plan and will face significant scrutiny if they fail.

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For Labour to win again in four years, the public need to see the tangible change that it voted for and to feel the benefit. If Streeting and co. do succeed in enacting these changes (and that’s a big if), this would provide Labour with a clear route out of a messy first year in government.

In the NHS, Starmer’s Labour Party may have found its road to redemption; whether they can use it successfully to navigate the ever-treacherous waters of UK politics and regain public trust, remains very much to be seen.

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