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Labour leads by 15 points in Corby – let the expectation management begin

August 16, 2012 9:58 am

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According to Lord Ashcroft – who regardless of your feelings about the man, is reliable when it comes to polling (although of course one can question his motives) – Labour lead by 15 points in the first Corby specific poll. The Ashcroft poll, released this morning on ConHome, puts Labour on 52%, Tories on 37% and the Lib Dems on just 7%.

As Tim Montgomerie put it in his analysis this morning “In the battle of expectations this poll helps to take the sting out of likely defeat”. The Tory Party will take heed of that line – off the record of course – if it looks like we’re going to win. Labour sources will no doubt counter that this is a tough seat for Labour to win, and that we’ll be looking to improve our vote, or somesuch. We certainly aren’t taking anything for granted, they’ll say – we’re fighting for every vote.

The fact is, expectation management be damned, this is a key seat for both parties, and both will be devastated if they lose. If Labour fails to win, it will be held up as conclusive proof that our polling lead is soft and that Ed Miliband isn’t cutting through in marginal, Middle England constituencies. Losing wouldn’t be Ed’s Crewe and Nantwich – it’d be worse – because losing a seat that you hold whilst an unpopular government is bad but often inevitable, failing to gain a key marginal when you’re a popular and fresh opposition is unthinkable. It will drown out any successes in PCC elections and the other two by-elections in Cardiff and Manchester. Rob Marchant is right, it’s a must win seat for Labour.

But the same can also be said for the Tories – especially David Cameron. His party have mocked Miliband as a lightweight and Labour as a party without a plan for Britain. For the people of Corby – a seat his party only won in 2010 and need to retain to have any chance of a majority in 2015 – to turn their backs on Cameron so soon and rush into the open arms of Ed Miliband would be a body blow. And it would obviously trigger more comments like this one from Boris Johnson today. And the knives being sharped on the backbenches would get longer and sharper, and start cleaving their way between the PM’s shoulderblades.

Make no mistake – this by-election is crucial. And crucial for everyone involved, whatever expectation management games might be played between now and election day.

Related posts:

  1. Expectation management fail?
  2. Labour are the bookies favourites to take back Corby from the Tories
  3. Corby is a not just a by-election Labour ought to win: it is one it cannot afford to lose
  4. Miliband says “Labour will build for real change in Corby”
  5. Poll List: ICM shows net gain for Labour of 4 points
  • JC

    Sitting governments tend not to win by-elections; Opposition parties tend to win them unless they are incompetent. What’s the story here?

    • treborc

       The story is labour wins, Tories lose, and the liberals are decimated.

    • CS Clark

      Tend for a given value of tend – Labour didn’t lose a by election after 1997 until 2003, and didn’t lose one to the official opposition until Crewe in 2008. Much of it is down to where the seats are, their relative safeness etc.

  • Barry Edwards

    By-election in seat currently held by unpopular government only two years after another unpopular government was turfed out. Surely the sort of election the Lib Dems thrive on?

    • Redshift

      Yeh – normally they aren’t part of one of the unpopular governments!

      • jaime taurosangastre candelas

        I’m sure the tories will lose, but what could be interesting is the amount of votes going to UKIP (I do not know if they are standing).

        It seems like a seat to me that has potential for UKIP – an urban half, and a tory half (and UKIP attract disaffected support from both tories and Labour), not very ethnically diverse, “middle England” in geography, and with the current endless Euro currency crisis, Europe is not too far from many people’s minds.

        I do not imagine it is in any way realistic as a UKIP win, but if they can win a significant minority – maybe 5-7,000 votes? then that is a message more powerful to David Cameron than Labour winning by a small number.

        • treborc

          That’s a bit like Labour thinking the BNP would gain seats sending labour into third place.

          I doubt UKIP would make that many gains not enough to worry the Tories, it will be a straight fight between the Tories and labour, labour it seems has a good candidate.

          • aracataca

            Treborc it seems you’re not quite as deranged as jmc. A sensible measured observation? Wonders will never cease.

          • treborc

             Well William, Fred, Arthur, your right wonders will never cease but sadly your the same

        • derek

          It’s inconceivable to think that the chancellor can throw a fire wall up around the city’s financial markets.Banking can’t be constrained to protectionism.If European drives an additional transition tax on Banks, then London will have to comply, so Europe is very much an agenda but a vote for UKIP would be a vote wasted as I’ve said above, if your Europe decides Britain will have to comply.  

          • jaime taurosangastre candelas

            Except it won’t, and you are completely wrong.  By law, such a European vote would be legally enforceable on only the 17 members of the Eurozone, and Britain is not one of them.  If a non-Eurozone legal mechanism is chosen to encompass all 27 members of the EU, Britain retains a veto in this area.

            There was an article in the Economist magazine a few months ago that makes a good mathematical case that it would be in Britain’s interest for the Eurozone to have this Tobin tax – they cannot stop us being outside it if we want, and most Eurozone financial institutions would shift their high volume dealing operations to London in order to remain competitive and offer lower charging rates to their customers, thus generating more revenue for the UK.

            If you do not like this legal argument, consider only that Europe’s financial sector is very largely in the UK and Switzerland (Frankfurt, Paris and the rest are significantly smaller), and if the rest of Europe apart from Britain and Switzerland is going to make things more expensive and difficult to do business, who do you expect the banks to react? They are not charities, you know.

          • derek

            No, because as I’ve said Banking isn’t constrained to nationalism and when transitions enters the Euro zone the tax will be collected.

          • jaime taurosangastre candelas

            Derek you may say what you like about banking and whether it is constrained to nationalism, but the evidence is completely against you.

            It is easier for a bank to avoid a transaction entering the Eurozone than it is for the Eurozone to collect it, and even those transactions that do take place in the Eurozone have no impact on the British economy.  If a British bank wants to sell something to a German bank, it is not difficult for either to conclude the trade in Hong Kong or Johannesburg or New York, and avoid the Eurozone altogether.

          • derek

            Jaime, America is currently investigated 7 British based banks.It’s likely that regulations on banks will be more stringent than first thought and most probable that America will also introduce an additional tax on their banking sector.The way of the world has changed Jaime, there is a gaping hole to fill in every country and the stimulus packages will be reduced through additional tax.

          • jaime taurosangastre candelas

            Yes, the Americans have their rules and like to try to impose them on other countries.  But consider that America, China and increasingly Asian markets are about the least likely countries in the world to impose this Tobin Tax – even Barack Obama is against it.  so your hopes for it to be introduced are just that – a hope.

            The sad message is that the way of the world really has not changed. There is lots of chatter about it, but in reality? No change at all. And there is not a single thing that any Labour Government in Britain as one country in 204 global countries can do about that – all it can do is to drive away business if it tries to. Such is life.

          • derek

            Jaime, I don’t think this is a matter of choice? it’s something that needs to happen and most probably will.

          • jaime taurosangastre candelas

            Why does a Tobin Tax “need” to happen?  There seems to be no such law of nature.  And based on observation of what has happened in the last 30 years since it was suggested, it seems more unlikely to happen now than at any previous point.

            It is clearly a choice, and apparently a very unpopular choice, and to compound that, a choice that will poison those that first make it, as the Swedes and Canadians discovered to their cost in the 1980s.

            The difficult thing for idealists  is that they like to deal with the world as they would like it to be, not as it actually is.

          • KonradBaxter

            Of course it’s a matter of chopce.

          • derek

            Sorry to inform you Jaime that the argument for tax avoidance has been defeated.There’s a clean hose pipe washing out the Banking sector in most nations,Britain must do it’s worldly duty and comply with Europe and the rest of the world.

          • jaime taurosangastre candelas

            Except there is not such a hose pipe, and your last clause is again more hope than reality.

          • Brumanuensis

            Politically it would be difficult for the UK to resist, as the EU would find a mechanism to penalise avoidance activity.

          • jaime taurosangastre candelas

            But the UK would not be avoiding anything, as the Tobin Tax is only (currently) levi-able on Eurozone members, and we are not a part, so could not be avoiding something we are not a part of…

            I appreciate that is the language and arguments of technocrats, and your argument in the realm of politics is at a different level.  But the reality even at the political level is that the UK (and Switzerland) have between them something like 70% of the financial trade, so that gives the remaining 30% very little leverage.  The rest of the world with whom we trade more than half of our financial sector each year also does not seem interested.  And any Eurozone adoption of this tax would simply drive more trade to the UK.

            This seems to me like an ant on my garden path standing up on the back legs and telling me it has dominion over my garden.  I am not too interested, and if the ant persists, I will step on it.

          • derek

            Squash the Ant, dam the soldiers  will amass. Jaime your not tuned in on this, America have been using it as tool against the massive Chinese growth rate for over a decade, it’s coming whether you want to bury your head in the sand pit or not.

          • Exploit

            Thing is if you wanted to bank billions would you want it entrusted to Chinese bank in mainland China, with its record on human rights and past history of instability, violence and revolution?

          • derek

            Yeah, I’d say they would be factors but lets not be naive, British banking has taken a huge blow over the last 4 years and some of our biggest banks could only secure customers savings by being nationalised. 

          • Brumanuensis

            I’m not sure Switzerland is the best example, given they were cajoled into co-operating on curbing tax-avoidance.

          • Exploit

            There are other reasons why the UK is first choice for a lot of banking and trading namely the fact that is is one of the world’s oldest, most stable democracies, and law-abiding democracies. The fact that in the UK there is pretty much zero chance of war, invasion or revolution convulsing society and putting money at risk is a big selling point.

          • John Dore

            Same with Switzerland, a neutral country with centuries of social stability.

          • KonradBaxter

            And then the UK could work to bring the EU grinding to a halt until it’s sovereign decision is respected.

            I think you may be right with the EU response as we have seen their anti democratic bullying attitude when they are denied what they think is right before.

          • Brumanuensis

            Well I don’t agree with your spin, but it’s possible. The UK needs the EU though.

          • 000a000

            Politically it would be impossible for the UK to agree to such a tax targetted at destroying the economy of one member – can you imagine the anti-EU sentiment such an attempt would create?

          • Brumanuensis

            ‘Destroying’? Nonsense. We already have a levy on shares in the form of stamp duty and it hasn’t destroyed the UK economy.

          • KonradBaxter

            “If European drives an additional transition tax on Banks, then London will have to comply”

            Can the UK be forced to comply?

            Yes or no?

          • derek

            In my opinion YES! to opt out would require Britain to end all European treaties.

          • jaime taurosangastre candelas

            Well, you are simply wrong.  You clearly have not understood the essential difference in being in the Eurozone and being in the EU only.

          • derek

            But the argument on the single currency issue has never been resolved, several future ideas incorporate Britain within the Euro?

          • jaime taurosangastre candelas

            Are those ideas realistic, or advocated by anyone who is not a fruitloop?

          • derek

            I think there based on 50% of trade within the European market, European passports, defence and millions of jobs. No fruitlooping here? just a realistic alternative to the failed ERM.

          • 000a000

            None of which relate to the EU or Euro at all.

            Remember when we were told Frankfurt would become the centre of European finance when the Euro was launched? What happened? Business has actually moved to London.

            The Euro has been an economic and democratic disaster. The question is settled.

          • derek

            You reckon? base your ideas on the commodity market and I’ll bet you doughnuts to dollars productive nations will regroup far quicker and stronger than less productive nations.

          • KonradBaxter

            So the answer is actually ‘no, the UK can not be forced to comply’.

            You are guessing based on – and I will assume here, perhaps I’m wrong please do correct me, that you are not an expert on the EU or EU law -   what you *want*  to happen. Not what will but what you want.

            And for that to happen there would have to be lots of changes and a total EU wide agremeent that if the UK did not agree to this one thing they would be  expelled from the EU or for the UK to leave the EU.

            I would further say that the answer is no based on the fact we have not heard the EU, so far as I know, talk about how such a tax would be binding on all memebrs of the EU, not just of the Euro. Or that any state that did not introduce this tax would be forced out of the EU.

            Why do you feel that the UK would have to end ALL European treaties if the tax was not extended to the UK?

          • derek

            I’m basing on the principle that for Britain to exempt itself from any such an undertaking would be deemed as trying to gain an unfair advantage over others and be seen as a breach in the code of European workings.

          • KonradBaxter

            So it’s guesswork then. Fair enough.

            VERY serious for the EU to expel a member – if that is even possible – for not complying with one piece of legislation. I simply can’t se it happening it would be a mamouth task to expel the UK and would take years to do, if it is even possible.

          • derek

            I think France has already installed the call!Merkel might be Cameron great hope but rules are rules and if there is an opt out I’d expect it to be challenged. That’s a fair thing to say.

          • KonradBaxter

            But we have seen no evidence at all that there is any rule that the UK must follow what 1 maybe 2 EU nations have said they will / might do.

          • derek

            We’ve  witnessed Cameron walking away from an EU meeting,Are you blind to the crisis?Cherry picking in unfruitful times isn’t an option.

          • KonradBaxter

            @Derek – replying to you at the top of the page.

          • Brumanuensis

            Regrettably I haven’t got my reference works on me. Derek might be right, but it probably depends on how the proposal is classified and what voting procedure is used.

          • KonradBaxter

            Exactly how the path to get to the legislation was chosen and taken would be key i agree. Majority, unanamous, etc.  But I still can’t see the EU expelling the UK for refusing to agree to institute this tax and what possible sanctions would they have against the UK if it refused short of expulsion?

          • Brumanuensis

            The UK won’t be expelled, but there might be repercussions of an unspecified nature. Certainly it wouldn’t pass without a response.

          • KonradBaxter

            Well the expulsion is what I take to mean by ” to opt out would require Britain to end all European treaties.”  Or it is the UK being pressured to leave.

            Either way I can’t see them happening .

            Why would there be a response and what, if you have any thoughts, do you imagine they might be?

            Would the EU want a situation whereby it was ‘at war’ with a major member?

          • Brumanuensis

            I suspect that if the UK wanted to secure future opt-outs or contribute to future EU legislation, less latitutde would be granted, which would work out to the UK’s disadvantage in the long-run.

        • aracataca

          Yes agreed. That’s right-UKIP are going to win. Keep taking the LSD.

          • jaime taurosangastre candelas

            “I do not imagine it is in any way realistic as a UKIP win”

            Is there some problem of plain speech comprehension as to what I wrote, or are you merely seeing my name as a commenter as an opportunity to unload some prejudice?

          • aracataca

            Yes sorry JMC didn’t read the whole thing-apologies.

          • jaime taurosangastre candelas

            That is perfectly OK Aracataca – thank you for saying this, and I know you are not normally extreme.  I should learn to be more brief.

        • Brumanuensis

          I’m pretty confident they’ll come third. Their exact total will depend on the Eurozone crisis.

        • Amber Star

          UKIP are standing, they have a local lady as their candidate – sorry, I can’t remember her name off the top of my head. Despite Ashcroft’s poll, the Tories shouldn’t hang about hoping things will get better. They’d be best,I think, to call the election quickly before UKIP have a chance to campaign.

          UKIP might take a % or 2 from Labour but it seems likely the Tories would be the biggest losers from a successful UKIP campaign.

          • John Dore

            One day Nigel Farage will be Prime Minister.

    • http://twitter.com/johnringer John Ringer

      expectationmanagement.txt

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Mike-Homfray/510980099 Mike Homfray

    Its a seat where the Labour and Tory blocs are very firm and not easily shifted , so this is a good poll

  • CS Clark

    But the same can also be said for the Tories – especially David Cameron.

    You can’t mean it’s a must win seat for them, surely? The more difficult question is whether to actually, y’know, campaign with ministers on the ground and be seen as losers if/when they lose or to take the lofty position that they expect to lose by a large margin, not turn up at all, piss off local organisations even more and then claim that the fact Labour didn’t get a majority of ActualMajority*1.25 means that they actually won, pissing off local organisations even more.

  • http://twitter.com/RF_McCarthy Roger McCarthy

    While John Rentoul can hardly contain his glee his comments on the latest yougov national poll are worth reading:

    ‘Standard voting question: Lab 44% Con 32% Lib Dem 10%
    Voting question with leaders’ names: Lab 40% Con 34% Lib Dem 10%
    Voting question with Boris instead of Dave: Lab 38% Con 37% Lib Dem 10%

    So, reminding respondents that Labour is led by Ed Miliband and the
    Conservatives by David Cameron halves Labour’s lead from 12 to 6 points.
    Asking them how they would vote if Boris Johnson led the Tories and Ed
    Miliband led Labour cuts it further to 1 point’.

    http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2012/08/15/isnt-david-cameron-doing-well/

    Or in other words Cameron remains an electoral asset to his party while Ed although we may see him growing in political stature remains an electoral liability to ours.

    Now as Michael Foot’s experience in 1980 shows you can have very negative personal ratings but still have your party enjoy a commanding poll lead – but as poor Michael showed such a lead can be very soft indeed (although this time we can at least be thankful that there are no plausible contenders for the Gang of Four and that even if the Argies were kind enough to re-invade the Falklands we now have no navy left to take them back….).

    • Alan Giles

       Poor old Rentoul has never forgiven Ed for beating David (brother David that is). He will use any “evidence” however scanty, to take another wallop.

      He is a tragic old figure, still trying to excuse Iraq, and reminding you somewhat of a journalistic version of Miss Haversham – shambling round in his wedding dress staring at the cobwebbed cake, unable to forget “Tony”.

      Why the Independent keeps him on to churn out his flatuent prose, I can’t imagine.

      • http://twitter.com/RF_McCarthy Roger McCarthy

         But while Blairite ultras can lie (although I put Rentoul in a different category to say Dan Hodges or Peter Watt as he is a serious journalist and has a sense of humour) the numbers here do not.

        The fact is that even in MORI which tends to be slightly more favourable to us Ed’s doing a good job rating has remained stubbornly stuck at only a third of the electorate (see attached image for graph).

        Now you and I and most of us who read Labour List know that the people are idiots and that Ed is a decent man who has already achieved a great deal in returning Labour to its values – but the fact remains that he has to persuade millions of Sun and Mail readers to vote for him as well.

        I am almost but not quite old enough to remember the first US election campaign where opinion polls had a big impact – and there are pictures from the 1964 Republican Convention where Goldwater supporters are waving signs saying ‘Gallup didn’t ask us!’

        I really do worry that we are in a similar state of denialism and for much the same reasons given that those people really did believe in Goldwater as a man of principle and honour (which by his right-wing lights he genuinely was) and just couldn’t understand why no one else saw him that way (or if they did didn’t see why personal honour should influence their vote).

        And I am definitely old enough to remember 1981 where Labour’s 13-point lead over the Tories was reduced to its sharing the same -27 rating as the Tories versus the Liberal-SDP Alliance by the end of the year. 

        • http://twitter.com/RF_McCarthy Roger McCarthy

          Another graph from Ipsos/MORI compares Miliband to other opposition leaders and shows Miliband is doing not that much worse than Cameron at this stage of his leadership (which given how much more personable Call Me Dave is and how much fawning attention he got from the massively biased media is actually quite impressive) and somewhat better than his similarly uncharismatic Tory equivalents Howard, Duncan Smith and Hague did.

          But for Cameron it took a massive global catastrophe and the collapse of Gordon Brown’s credibility to push him over the line to net positive approval – my worry with Ed is that he’s already got the economic catastrophe and a hopelessly incompetent govt but thanks to the Tory stranglehold over the media its not working for him yet – and if not now when?

          • John Dore

            At first glance though it looks bad, I think we can win given we have such a poll lead.

        • Alan Giles

           Fair points Roger. I think there are several problems: Rentoul is shockingly biased, in that his continued loyalty to Blair (to this day he has described himself as a Blairite), means that he will disparage any other non Blairite figure  or make an uncomplimentary comparison(I have seen pieces by him in the past which were complementary to Cameron, though to be fair this was some time ago).

          I honestly believe Rentoul will only be 100% supportive if D Miliband took over the leadership or Blair came back. This isn’t likely to happen but the Independent has such a small readership, probably he can witter on and cause little or no damage.

          On the issue of public perception. I totally agree Ed Miliband is an honest and decent man. The fact that he was one of only three ministers not tainted by the expenses scandal proves that.  I think the problem  is that Ed is perceived as an indecisive man, who constantly looks over his shoulder at his own colleagues and public opinion: in that regard he is in a similar position to John Major, not personally unlikeable, but persued by his own members and MPs because he isn’t Blair or his brother, in the way some right wing newspapers and MPs could never forgive John Major for not being Mrs. Thatcher.

          I think being a party leader is a bit like being a band leader – you have to remind the lads (music) or MPs who is leading the band, and that means you have to make decisions which are going to upset some of them. I keep mentioning it and I am sorry but a few LL posters have asked where Labour now stands on the WCA and of course we really don’t know. All we do know is that Liam Byrne claims to approve of three quarters of the welfare reform bill of the coalition (broadly inherited from the Brown years), but makes a great noise about the quarter he doesn’t agree with (or says he doesn’t agree with), but while he prevaricates it gives the impression Ed doesn’t have the will to thrash the policy out with Byrne, or, if he disagrees with the WCA he should show this by appointing a different shadow minister. But the public deserve to have an answer to basic questions like this. As it is, we appear to be taking a leisurely look at policy for the next couple of years, under the aegis of a man more given to thinking than action. Jon Crudas will, I feel, eventually do as Bryan Gould did, and choose academia over politics.

          I have long called for a reshuffle, because frankly, I don’t think some of them are not very effective, and, given the feelings against Brown/Balls, it doesn’t help to have Ed Balls still in situ as shadow Chancellor. I wouldn’t say he was as ineffective as certain others, but he is a reminder of a somewhat unhappy past..

          The only shadow cabinet minister I would say performs consistently and with some passion is Andy Burnham (and I don’t fully agree with his stance)

          I think a refreshed team, with a bit of pruning of the dead wood, a firm committment to a few core policies would work wonders. What I don’t think is tenable is for Labour to be treading water for the next 2/3 years in the hope that the Conservatives will destroy themselves.

    • Amber Star

      At least Ed Miliband & the Party are not in denial about this. That’s why we want local MP candidates in place & getting their name known as soon as possible. Unless David Cameron copies the SNP’s tactic which put: ’Alex Salmond for 1st Minister’ on every ballot paper, the public will not be prompted about who will be PM.

      Furthermore, had the question also been asked as: Who would you vote for in your own constituency?, the answer would have been different from the PM not mentioned/ Cameron/ Johnson/ Miliband questions.

      Interestingly, ICM’s ‘wisdom of the crowd index’ puts Labour on 38% & the Tories on 31% (the most recent normal ICM poll had a 5 point gap). So, the view of the public (at this time) is that people will not be put off voting Labour because of Ed Miliband or anything else.

  • KonradBaxter

    @ derekAnd what were the consequence of walking away from that one meeting? I’m not supporting it here, but what effect did it have? Are you saying that the UK PM should never walk away even when a bad deal is on the table?  No, I’m not blind to the Euro zone crisis, the UK’s economic problems or the global economic situation. And? The Tobin Tax  bring brought in in France will not solve any of these issues. Cherry picking is always an option. Whether it is a good option or not is open to debate but it is always an option.

    • derek

      I think what happened next? was the other half, Clegg frantically tried to rebuild the bridge with Europe as the conservative right wing cheered Cameron on no end.

      Isolation and protectionism is about as bad as it could possibly get, surely your not advocating such a position?
      If you want the Euro to fail and the Lisbon treaty abolished, then there will be consequences? History is littered with the happenings.  

      • KonradBaxter

        So nothing happened then. The sky did not fall in.

        No i am not advocating  isolation and protectionism.

        I didnt say I wanted ‘the Euro to fail and the Lisbon treaty abolished’.

        History is littered with what? Consequences to actions? Really?

        • derek

          Yes! absolutely, for every action there is a re-action.

          Jaime, seem to say in his writings that Britain would gain from opting out of an additional tax on banks and goes even further to suggest Britain would become the tax avoidance haven for the world, where people like Mugabe would stash his cash.Look! the fall out would be massive, the penalties endured would be an offset immediately for Britain and the loss and there would be losses would need to be filled by the vain hope that all tax avoiders would move to a rather expensive city like London to do business in  avoidance, weigh it up? the balance of opt out isn’t as Jaime predicts? 

          • KonradBaxter

            But the re-action may be nothing or have no  / little effect. Cameron walking away from that meeting didn’t cause the UK to be kicked out of the EU did it?

            We don’t have to go along with everything we are told to do you know. We still have choices.  

            (as an aside I don’t think Jamie did suggest what you are saying he did, that seems to be you putting a spin on it to blacken what he did say.)

            If the EU opted for such a tax and the UK didn’t then the UK probabaly would benefit. Just as Ireland benefitted from lower corporation tax and India from outsourcing call centres.

            What would the fall out be? You have not said just hinted darkly that it would be bad.

            What penaties would there be? You have not said just hinted darkly that it would be bad. 

            What losses would there be? You have not said just hinted darkly that it would be bad. 

            You don’t have to move to London to do business in London, the City or the UK.  Financial transactions are electronic.

            It’s just fear mongering because you – personally – want this tax to come in and want the UK to be too scared to oppose it, despite the fact it may have a detrimental impact on the UK economically and financially.  Policy making due to fear.

          • derek

            So were talking about an election where UKIP could fair better than the tories because of their opposition to Europe and the Euro? I that’s blown that one out.

            Choices have been restricted due to a world wide crash, why keep denying that?

            Jaime, is being very supportive of a Britain that represents tax avoidance.

            As Europe tries to heal some financial wounds by introducing a further tax take, are seriously suggesting that an opt out from Britain has no consequence?

            I think it’s bullies boy tactics from Osborne, austerity isn’t working and tax avoidance is a necessary means to close the gap.Jeez! do you really want Britain to be the next Ireland, can’t believe you wrote that tosh!

          • KonradBaxter

            We were talking about the transaction tax.

            “If European drives an additional transition tax on Banks, then London will have to comply”Can the UK be forced to comply?Yes or no?

            I have not denied that choices  may have been restricted. You have not provided any support to your argument that the UK has NO CHOICE but to go along with any EU wide transaction tax, not that one exists.

            Tax avoidance is legal. Avoidance of a new tax is something most people would want to do if they find it onerous such as the Poll Tax. Our tax laws already allow tax avoidance and there are various legal schemes to do so .

            What consequence(s) would there be if the EU decided to bring in this tax? Do you see the EU expelling the UK? What kind of action may they take? You have not provided any or any support that it could be forced in.

            Other than your fear and panic mongering.

            Who is Osbourne bullying?

            Austerity isn’t working like we would want I agree.

            I didnt write that I ‘really want Britain to be the next Ireland’, stop trying to put words in my mouth. Perhaps  start reading posts that are addressed to you instead of imagining what you think they say and drenching your posts in fear mongering.

          • derek

            Jeez! your just running scared of debate now and throwing up total nonsense.I suggest you take a break and a re-think and come back.Austerity isn’t working it’s hurting, never mind, do as I say, be gone for now until later Derek, best regards. 

  • https://mikestallard.virtualgallery.com/ Mike Stallard

    If, in mid term, the Labour machine cannot get this Scottish seat (yes – Corby is an industrial town) back, then there really is a serious problem.
    Louise Mensch was a most disastrous mistake as even her ex will testify (and her three children will too, I regret).

    • John Dore

      Mensch? I do her!

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