Is Ed trying to get protest voted into Downing Street?

September 18, 2012 9:00 am

There’s a Populus poll in the Times this morning, so lets play “spot the difference” -

Exhibit 1: Labour lead at 15, biggest Lab lead this parliament – Lab 45/Con 30/LD 10

Exhibit 2: 23% of people say they are happy with Cameron and want him to stay, 37% say they are unhappy, but would rather have him than Ed Miliband, 31% say they are unhappy with Cameron and would prefer Miliband. Or put simply – Cameron leads by a huge 60 to 31.

Labour’s leadership will focus on point 1, cross their fingers and hope 2 goes away.

But will it go away? Or is something more troubling going on here? Is Labour now part of the biggest protest vote in modern British history, now that voting for the Lib Dems is a non-starter for many? And if so, can we really expect Ed Miliband to be protest voted into Downing Street?

Or will the British people blink in the ballot box and stick with the devil they know?

Let’s take a look – briefly – at the positive news. Most of the party seems to be focussing on it as if it’s a vindication of everything that has gone before (ignoring the other result). But it does provide Labour with a huge lead, and yes, in theory, people vote for a party and not a PM. Except in practice, voting for a PM is exactly what most people are doing. Miliband deserves credit for taking Labour from 29% up to 45% in the polls. But that credit isn’t being given to him by the wider electorate.

Which leaves us with the “protest vote” thesis.

In short – the voters like Labour more than the Tories. But they are done with the Lib Dems and can’t turn to them. Result? Labour’s big poll lead.

However, the public still like (or don’t yet dislike) the Prime Minister. And they still don’t know what to make of (or outright don’t like) Ed Miliband.

So we have the paradox of the country calling for a Labour government, but preferring Cameron to Miliband. Perhaps most troubling of all is the 37% of voters who think that Cameron has done a bad job but still prefer him to Miliband. How much worse he needs to do for them to transfer their support is unclear…

The fact is, after two years as leader, Ed Miliband has managed to detoxify the Labour brand to some extent, but has failed to either build up or detoxify his own brand. Abstraction tends to rule the roost whilst policy specifics are hidden away. And that could work, were the abstractions not so abstract that we often can’t immediately understand what they are…

At the moment, the country doesn’t want the Tories or the Lib Dems back in power. But they are massively underwhelmed by what Ed Miliband is offering as an alternative. Saying you are voting Labour in an opinion poll therefore looks increasingly like a protest vote, because if you don’t want to vote for Ed Miliband as PM, why would you vote Labour in 2015?

In two weeks Ed Miliband stands up to address the country at Labour’s party conference. This year he needs to leave the abstractions at home and put some policy detail out there that can convince wavering voters that he has an actual plan for Britain.

If we get more waffle, he’ll only be providing Cameron with a roadmap back from the abyss, and the “attack Ed” strategy for 2015 that everyone knows is coming will only be made more effective.

If the election were tomorrow, with Ed polling how he is at present, that onslaught would wipe out Labour’s poll lead in a matter of days, like the tide smashing down a sandcastle.

It’s probably time to start building a castle with policy bricks, rather than sand ideas. But can any castle survive the tide if it’s build on sand?

Are you sand Ed Miliband?

In two weeks, we find out.

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  • billbat

    Cameron is still getting a favourable response from the Press with the Telegraph and Times still acting as Cheer-Leaders and even the Guardian falling over itself to be fair to him. Whereas the Mail and Sun are still very dismissive of Ed and treat him in the same way that Flashman does at PMQ’s. When asked a question by Ed Cameron just replies with a pre-written speech and finishes off with a patronising put-down that would earn him a well-deserved  knuckle sandwich if he made it in a pub.

  • http://twitter.com/bill_bold bill bold

    i’m not sure you’re giving good advice. was nick clegg loved two years prior to the 2010 general election? no, but come the election the media seemed to think he was the best thing since sliced bread. 

    instead of providing specific policy detail miliband is adding – drop by drop – ideas that will form the foundation for the policy when it is eventually revealed. i appreciate it’s concerning that he doesn’t have stronger individual polling but i imagine that’s less to do with him and more to do with the character assassination that took place for his first year or so as leader of the party.

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  • http://twitter.com/jonrosling Jon Rosling

    An interesting analysis, Mark, and one that reaffirms what I had thought since Ed was elected – that the Conservatives will win a majority at the next election. Cameron has quite successfully modelled himself as the Heir To Blair, which probably accounts for the public’s affinity with him despite the dreadful government he is leading. And before people scoff they should recall that the image of TB won three elections, despite mid term unpopularity over things such as Mad Cows, petrol prices and a war. I think that’s what will do for Ed Miliband at the next election – he doesn’t have the aura of image of a Prime Minister. Maybe that’s why TB has been somewhat rehabilitated into the Labour fold in recent months.

  • http://twitter.com/redrenie24 Renie Anjeh

    The public don’t like the PM. Cameron’s personal ratings are lower than Ed Miliband’s. People feel they are yet to find out whether Miliband is Prime Ministerial, hence the don’t-knows.

    • Hugh

       ”The public don’t like the PM. Cameron’s personal ratings are lower than Ed Miliband’s.”

      In today’s polling in the Standard, Cameron scores higher for
      - eloquence,
      - being prime ministerial,
      - being likable,
      - being tough enoug for PM,
      - representing Britain,
      - smart enough to be PM,
      - having the right values,
      - being a man of faith
      - and being a fun person to meet.

      If people don’t like the PM, they like Miliband even less.

      “People feel they are yet to find out whether Miliband is Prime Ministerial, hence the don’t-knows.”

      Actually on that particular question of whether Milliband is prime ministerial, only 7% don’t know. And just 17% think he is more PM material than Cameron.

      http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron-smarter-tougher-and-more-likeable-than-ed-miliband-reveals-poll-8156713.html

      • http://twitter.com/waterwards dave stone

        Makes one wonder how it was that Cameron failed to win the General Election… doh!

        • Hugh

           Makes one wonder how Miliband is going to.

          • http://twitter.com/waterwards dave stone

            You don’t want to be worrying your pretty little head over that, Hugh. Instead you should direct your activism toward stemming the flood of former Tory voters to UKIP.

  • http://twitter.com/christof_ff christof_ff

    The other worry is that a large tranche of Labour voters do have alternatives – the SNP and Plaid.

    • John Ruddy

      Why would Scottish voters vote for a party that cosies up to big business, wants to reduce business taxes and close, sorry merge further education colleges, all the while ignoring the plight of fuel poverty and youth unemployment?

      • http://twitter.com/christof_ff christof_ff

        Not saying that Scottish voters necessarily would or should vote SNP, just that they’re not short options for a knee-jerk protest-vote if they’re feeling taken for granted by Labour.
        Clearly many of the LibDem protest-voters hadn’t paid too much attention to what they were voting for – much of what we’re now getting was there for all to see in the Orange Book.

  • AlanGiles

    Mark, I don’t think it is a question that the public dislike Ed Miliband – the problem, as I see it, is that the public, not even ex Labour party members like myself, don’t quite know what to make of him. It doesn’t help that they are indulging in a 2/3 year policy review – in the meantime, it is not surprising that there is a strong element of “protest vote”, because none of us have any idea where EM is taking the party.

    Sorry to mention it again, but where, exactly, do they stand on welfare?. What  do they envisage doing about the Coalitions demolition of the NHS?, Education???

    We know (in some areas) what they are against, but most of the opposition is more to do with presentation of policy rather than actual policy itself.

    The public need to be assured that Labour has a strategy and a set of policies which would be available today – not at some indeterminate time 2/3 years hence (after all, the coalition is hardly stable).

    They also need to know that it is not going to be just a question of re-arranging the furniture in the New Labour lounge.

    They need to inspire people and give them hope – unlike David Miliband, I do think in dark times the public DO need the politics of reassurance. At the moment, I am sorry to say, I am certainly not convinced they have the strength to persue a new path.

    • Jeremy_Preece

      I fear that much of what you say here is spot on. I talk to so many people who are not members of a party and they are saying the same thing. I see that yougov today is covered in the survey about Millibamd versus Cameron. It makes for fairly depressing reading.
      In a nutshell there are 37% polled who think that Cameron is doing badly, but would rather have him as PM than EM. That is a really serious body-blow for Labour.

      We have EM now and will do at the 2015 election, the time for Labour to replace him has past. The issue is that we are not saying what Labour is about. I don’t want to reopen debate here about Tony Blair, but in 1994 and 1995 he was in the news with his policy direction ideas, and talking about his vision for Britain. He was not just saying “boo hiss the present government is rubbish”.

      We are now in mud-term and the opposition can expect to do well on the back of governemnt failure. However as the next election gets closer the part of the electorate that still can be bothered to vote will not be protesting but choosing a government. Poll leads through protest groups will melt away.

      To be honest, by now I would have expected the leadership to have given us clear principles of policy direction, and had a few flagship policy ideas out there. With this type of direction and frame work Labour would be fleshing things out more and more as the next election approaches. The fact that we have nothing much by now is worrying.

      Leadership does matter since people vote for a person that thhy know has the power to affect huge change, for example it is the PM who makes the call as to whether Britain goes to war. Therefore you must have confindece in the leader of the party that you are electing.

      Okay, we might have to accept that our current leader is not charasmatic and powerful and that we have therefore got ourselves an uphill job trying to win the election, but if it is all about policy then we should have a leader who if a little shy, is a man who quietly gives off an air of confidence and stability and clearly stands on some coherrant policy ideads. The notion of endless policy review and taking time out to think about who we are, without any clear idea as to where we are going is an absolute disaster.

      Ed might have gone from two out of ten to three out of ten to even five or six, but as a powerful leader or as quite confident leader he needs to be scoring eight or nine out of ten and so has some way to go. Time is no longer on our side and we need to see results. 

  • https://mikestallard.virtualgallery.com/ Mike Stallard

    “But they are massively underwhelmed by what Ed Miliband is offering as an alternative.”
    And that is…….?

  • Hugh

    “If we get more waffle, he’ll only be providing Cameron with a roadmap
    back from the abyss, and the “attack Ed” strategy for 2015 that everyone
    knows is coming will only be made more effective.”

    I’m not convinced. You’re right that Labour’s poll lead is in spite of Milliband, not because of him. And you’re right that it reflects the vagueness about what he stands for. Labour have indeed captured the entire protest vote at present.

    However, it’s very unlikely that addressing this will improve his chances. The only way for Milliband from a 15 point lead is down; as soon as there is any definition in even the direction he would govern, he will start to lose votes: either form the left (hence union booing for Ed Balls) or from the right (unless you seriously reckon swing voters are as far left as the unions).

    I suspect Miliband will be best served electorally by keeping it as vague as possible for as long as possible. And that, I’d say, is what he’ll most likely do – particularly since  he doesn’t really betray much sign of actually having any very compelling ideas even if he was minded to share them.

  • Hugh

     To state that the Telegraph has been a consistent cheer leader for Cameron suggests you’ve never read it. I don’t see the Times much anymore given the paywall. It’s recent review of the reshuffle wasn’t glowing according the Beeb’s newspaper review: ” no great coherence or mission emerged and no
    clear message about government priorities was sent.” What does its leader say today?

    The Mail and the Sun are dismissive of Milliband. That shouldn’t be an awful surprise. They are again, though, hardly unreserved cheerleaders for Cameron.

  • http://twitter.com/waterwards dave stone

    Not sure that your Cameron/Blair comparison will follow through as you suggest. The Labour vote declined from 1997 onward, TB himself accounting for the loss of 4 million votes. If Cameron is to win a majority he’ll have to achieve what TB failed to do – increase his vote. And that’s a very tall order.

    There is a comparison between now and an earlier time though – between TB’s ‘stakeholder’ prelude (the Singapore speech), when Blair spoke of an economy  ”run for the many, not the few” and Ed’s predator/producer/predistribution perspective.

    Certainly, no one was really sure what the ‘stakeholder’ malarkey was about and the same lack of clarity pertains regarding Ed’s orientation but even so, Ed only needs to offer the electorate an something more credible and convincing than the current government – and that ain’t looking at all difficult.

    • Winston_from_the_Ministry

      I honestly don’t think that there is ANYTHING Ed can do.

      People just look at him and think “Prime Minister……? No.”

      I can’t see the British public voting him in, not unless there’s some kind of total implosion from the Tories.

      • AlanGiles

         I honestly feel Ed COULD become PM but he does himself no favours with his caution and timidity. Certainly I could see him as a PM more than, say, Duncan-Smith.

        If I were in his position, I would ensure the policy review was completed within a year and start making definite statements, not this cautious sort of wait and see, and let’s tweak the current policies. You get the feeling at the moment he is doing little more than tread water.

        Also, of course, you need a good front-line round you: Andy Burnham plainly his star player), Chuka Ummana, Ratchel Reeves, Emily Thornbury are competent, some more than that,  but some of them are so wooden you are in danger of getting splinters from them. Also, I feel it is questionable to keep Ed Balls as shadow chancellor: two many reminders of the past.

        • http://twitter.com/redrenie24 Renie Anjeh

          Ratchel Reeves? Thornbury? Plainly his star player?
          As for Ed Balls, you want him to get rid of the man who was right on the Euro and on the Coalition’s economic policy. Very funny.

          • AlanGiles

             If you put your glasses on, you will see I said Andy Burnham was his star player.

            Here, I’ll repeat it slower for you:

            “Andy Burnham plainly his star player”.

            I wish you would stop mischief making Renie. It’s not very adult.

        • Winston_from_the_Ministry

          I think you’re in too small a minority to make it a reality.

          No matter what colour rosette he went to the electorate in, he just doesn’t have it about him, people feel that.

      • trotters1957

        Ah, the great “British public”.
        There is no such thing. 
        All Labour need to do is get the same percentage of the vote as the Tories and they are in.
        35% and Labour win the election, maybe with a hung Parliament but nevertheless a win.
        Can you honestly see Labour getting less than this when they got 29% under the most unpopular PM and the worst financial crisis in 80 years.
        Wishful thinking from the ministry?

      • http://twitter.com/redrenie24 Renie Anjeh

        There is a total implosion in the Tories. I think it is almost safe to say he will become Prime Minister but whether it is in a Coalition, minority or majority government is another question.

        • Winston_from_the_Ministry

          Wishful thinking Renie. 

          Outside of the political bubble things are far less tempestuous than you would expect.

          But the impression of Ed is pretty constant. 

          • http://twitter.com/RedfishUK Mark Reilly

            I think the omnishambles over the budget was seen and heard far outside the political bubble.. as was the double dip..
            wait until Osborne has to try and explain why not getting the deficit down is ok now .. the Government really is imploding

      • http://twitter.com/waterwards dave stone

        “I honestly don’t think that there is ANYTHING Ed can do.”

        Are you having a laugh? Ed has already done so much.

        He’s framed the debate since last year’s L.P. conference. It started with his ‘predator/producer’ rhetoric – Cameron joined in a couple of months later (amusingly out-flanking Labour’s Right from the Left) with his own version. This introduced the sense that economic activity requires a moral back-drop and provided the context against which Osborne’s millionaires tax cut could easily be recognised as unfair. And so it became a major political blunder from which the Conservatives have yet to recover.

        Ed’s leadership on the Murdoch scandal was crucial. It was only when Ed applied pressure, calling for the decision on the take-over to be shelved that the whole Corporate/Westminster edifice began to crumble and eventually bust apart – leaving the Conservatives no other option than, again, falling-in behind Ed.

        And then there’s Ed’s readiness to address the failure of the 30 year neo-liberal consensus – Cameron’s inability to even acknowledge such an occurrence may well prevent from establishing contact with the world in which most of the electorate live.

        Best option for your chap Cameron, if he wants to be in with a chance in 2015, is to start mimicking the person usually standing before him at PMQs.

        • http://twitter.com/astonvilla_view Astonvilla_Views

          and 

        • Alexwilliamz

          Yep I genuinely think that Ed is coming up quietly on the inside. Come election time when he will get more coverage we might see a more balanced view. of course key to all this is a set of policies that resonates with the public.

        • Alexwilliamz

          Yep I genuinely think that Ed is coming up quietly on the inside. Come election time when he will get more coverage we might see a more balanced view. of course key to all this is a set of policies that resonates with the public.

        • Winston_from_the_Ministry

          So he’s jumped on a few bandwagons, big deal. Nobody sees him as Prime Minister Material, and Labour will need disaster for the Tories or a change of leader to get in.

          And Cameron is not “my chap”.

          • http://twitter.com/waterwards dave stone

             ”he’s jumped on a few bandwagons ”

            No mate. Ed used leadership opportunities to change the tide of opinion – others, some reluctantly, were then swept along.

          • Hugh

             Quite right, before Ed spoke up everyone positively loved bankers and journalists. He’s a visionary. 

          • Winston_from_the_Ministry

            Potatoes-tomatoes.

      • Alexwilliamz

        And yet John Major got voted back in and this amidst a conservative party tearing itself apart. I’m not sure the ‘prime minister …?’ issue is quite as critical as we think. If the tories don’t turn things around people who voted Labour until the last election may start to look back on the Labour period of government with longing. The single effective tory line last time that Labour got us into a financial mess has already worn thin and if we can put together a credible manifesto I can see a Labour victory even with Cameron scoring better than Ed on the leader stakes. Those sorts of polls could be very easily swayed by TV leadership debates if they happen, Cameron could easily come a cropper in that environment.

      • Alexwilliamz

        And yet John Major got voted back in and this amidst a conservative party tearing itself apart. I’m not sure the ‘prime minister …?’ issue is quite as critical as we think. If the tories don’t turn things around people who voted Labour until the last election may start to look back on the Labour period of government with longing. The single effective tory line last time that Labour got us into a financial mess has already worn thin and if we can put together a credible manifesto I can see a Labour victory even with Cameron scoring better than Ed on the leader stakes. Those sorts of polls could be very easily swayed by TV leadership debates if they happen, Cameron could easily come a cropper in that environment.

      • Alexwilliamz

        And yet John Major got voted back in and this amidst a conservative party tearing itself apart. I’m not sure the ‘prime minister …?’ issue is quite as critical as we think. If the tories don’t turn things around people who voted Labour until the last election may start to look back on the Labour period of government with longing. The single effective tory line last time that Labour got us into a financial mess has already worn thin and if we can put together a credible manifesto I can see a Labour victory even with Cameron scoring better than Ed on the leader stakes. Those sorts of polls could be very easily swayed by TV leadership debates if they happen, Cameron could easily come a cropper in that environment.

      • Alexwilliamz

        And yet John Major got voted back in and this amidst a conservative party tearing itself apart. I’m not sure the ‘prime minister …?’ issue is quite as critical as we think. If the tories don’t turn things around people who voted Labour until the last election may start to look back on the Labour period of government with longing. The single effective tory line last time that Labour got us into a financial mess has already worn thin and if we can put together a credible manifesto I can see a Labour victory even with Cameron scoring better than Ed on the leader stakes. Those sorts of polls could be very easily swayed by TV leadership debates if they happen, Cameron could easily come a cropper in that environment.

      • Alexwilliamz

        And yet John Major got voted back in and this amidst a conservative party tearing itself apart. I’m not sure the ‘prime minister …?’ issue is quite as critical as we think. If the tories don’t turn things around people who voted Labour until the last election may start to look back on the Labour period of government with longing. The single effective tory line last time that Labour got us into a financial mess has already worn thin and if we can put together a credible manifesto I can see a Labour victory even with Cameron scoring better than Ed on the leader stakes. Those sorts of polls could be very easily swayed by TV leadership debates if they happen, Cameron could easily come a cropper in that environment.

    • Winston_from_the_Ministry

      I honestly don’t think that there is ANYTHING Ed can do.

      People just look at him and think “Prime Minister……? No.”

      I can’t see the British public voting him in, not unless there’s some kind of total implosion from the Tories.

  • PaulHalsall

    People in 1979 preferred Callaghan over Thatcher, but that did not stop her winning.

  • http://www.facebook.com/fergusonsmith Marie E Ferguson-Smith

    When will Labour produce some credible policies that voters can relate to?
    Labour is ahead because other parties are so bad.

  • Alice_Band

    We used to say that Blair would make an excellent Tory PM. Maybe the time has come for Cameron to be installed as Labour leader!!

  • williamtheconker

    The only poll worth paying any attention to is the real vote on election day.
    It must be very easy for desperate people to be swayed by one poll, or even a succession.
    But we do all know that Ed and his mates haven’t put forward one single believable policy yet.

    It’s easy to be against government  - whatever hue it is. (Understandable though that Clegg is bringing down government poll ratings.)

    Until there are some solid believable policies that attract popular and wide support then the only vote you will get is one for ‘not austerity’ And that isn’t good enough.

  • trotters1957

    I think you are exaggerating the extent of the protest vote, Mark.
    Most of Labour’s increased polling has come from disaffected Lib Dems and it’s very doubtful that these will return to them, particularly if Clegg remains leader. 
    It doesn’t look like Labour are gaining many voters from the Tories, their protest voters are going to UKIP.
    Some of the Labour lead is flaky but not as much as you are implying.

  • http://www.facebook.com/people/Graeme-Hancocks/1156294498 Graeme Hancocks

    I think Ed Milliband is someone who continues to surprise his detractors. He needs to grasp the “EU issue” and commit Labour to a Referendum. I am very pro Europe but we all know that Cameron will use this issue to try and save himself. Better that EM steals a march on him and steps the pace. And, as someone else has pointed out, Thatcher trounced Callaghan in 1979 despite the fact that she was not generally liked and Callaghan was more popular than his party

    • http://twitter.com/redrenie24 Renie Anjeh

      Agreed. I think a referendum on Britain’s relationship with the EU, will show that Ed Miliband is a leader but also he cares about what the people have to say. Even massive Euroenthusiasts like Peter Mandelson from arch Eurosceptics like Kate Hoey in the party, would like a referendum. Ed would kick himself if he doesn’t do it.

      • jaime taurosangastre candelas

        On the Euro referendum idea, I think that would only work if Ed unveiled it as a manifesto commitment almost at the last moment before the election, to effectively prevent the tories from adopting it as well.  If he unveils it in the next year, the tories could simply adopt it as well, so neutralising it as distinctive Labour policy, and the tories would probably win over quite a few of the UKIP people (I have seen no recent poll, but a few weeks ago they were on about 10%, most of whom I imagine are normally tory voters).

        I do not know how the tories do their planning, but they will I am sure be calculating the UKIP vote.  I would not be surprised if they do adopt the referendum policy, despite it being a U-turn on things Cameron has previously said.  There are so many things that “could” go wrong with the Euro-project in the next 2 years that Cameron could make a good case to say that “things have changed” to make it easier to disguise a policy change.

        If the tories did do this, and before Ed does it, the affect on the polls would probably be quite large.  

        In my opinion, it works better for the tories if they are to change to a referendum policy for them to make the change earlier, and it works better for Labour to make the change later if the tories have not already done so.  But this is straying into game theory territory, and while it is an interesting topic, I have no expertise or insight into it.

        I personally would be happy to see a Euro-referendum, no matter which party proposes it.

        • AlanGiles

           Jaime, I don’t think either party would be keen on an EU referendum, simply because, looking at it honestly, there is no doubt that there would be a massive “no” vote, and both parties would then be left with the question – what comes after?.

          I am really quite agnostic on the EU: it has some good aspects, and it has some very bad ones (the 90 year mechanical copyright protection act  for example), but I think either party with a small majority especially (which it is likely to be the case whichever party wins in 2015) will not really be anxious to open this can of worms.

          • jaime taurosangastre candelas

            Is that the argument that the professional politicians should largely ignore the electorate?  Did you not notice that lots of people are really very upset with the EU, not just in this country but in Spain, Germany, and Greece (and many others as well).  and yet it has not, to date, made any difference, even when the people vote against EU treaties, they are told to vote again.

            An odd choice of example for the very bad aspects, choosing some niche little copyright act.  I’d choose to illustrate those bad aspects by reference to the massive democratic deficit explicit in every level of the EU, possibly slightly more important than the modern re-recording of some dusty jazz 78 rpm record.  Or if that is not to your fancy, the unreformed agricultural policy, or the misery forced on many millions of people by the absurdity of the Euro project, with a single currency but 17 countries all having separate financial policies.

          • jaime taurosangastre candelas

            Is that the argument that the professional politicians should largely ignore the electorate?  Did you not notice that lots of people are really very upset with the EU, not just in this country but in Spain, Germany, and Greece (and many others as well).  and yet it has not, to date, made any difference, even when the people vote against EU treaties, they are told to vote again.

            An odd choice of example for the very bad aspects, choosing some niche little copyright act.  I’d choose to illustrate those bad aspects by reference to the massive democratic deficit explicit in every level of the EU, possibly slightly more important than the modern re-recording of some dusty jazz 78 rpm record.  Or if that is not to your fancy, the unreformed agricultural policy, or the misery forced on many millions of people by the absurdity of the Euro project, with a single currency but 17 countries all having separate financial policies.

          • AlanGiles

             Jaime: Sometimes, thank God, professional politicians do ignore the electorate – if they were to acquiesce in every fancy of the public, we would no doubt bring back hanging and flogging which so many people think would be the answer to our problems.

            On the copyright act: you have got it exactly the wrong way round: at the moment the copyright of sound recording expires after 50 years (i.e. to the end of 1961), long after the demise of the “dusty 78 RPM record”. If the EU plan is obeyed this extends to 90 years and, as of 2013 when this act is due to start, that means that only recordings made before 1922 would be exempt, therefore the only jazz recordings in the public domin would be the dusty old 78 recordings of the Original Dixieland Jazz Band – even the classic Louis Armstrong Hot Fives and Sevens would have to wait until 2016 before they could be legally reissued.

            The companies who own the rights to the recordings made prior to 1961 are often defunct, or else the copyright now subsists with some major corporation  who have no knowledge of, or interest in, their back catalogue, and who often acquired the rights to a small catalogue (for example Argo and Tempo now officialy owned by Universal as part of the catalogues acquired from Decca), and, certainly in the case of Tempo, the original masters were destroyed years ago. They have been reissued by a small company (more than one if memory serves) who were prepared to track down and dub copies of pristine LPs. Universal would not be interested in doing this, since it would cost more in time and money than any profit they would make – they wouldn’t shift enough “units” as the trade jargon has it.

            In many cases the musicians involved in the recordings of the 50s and early 60s are now deceased, they have no airs and successors, so there is nobody to pay royalties to. In some instances if a relative can be found an agreement is worked out with them (as a recent Vocalion reissue of Harold McNair (1931-1971) attests An RCA recording of 1968 has been reissued with the knowledge consent and cooperation of his sole beneficary). In some cases if a musician remains alive reissues are made by new companies with their full coinsent and cooperation (e.g. a 1977 recording by Tommy Whittle (1926 – ) made for a private label is now reissued by a tiny company called “Acrobat” who have good distribution arrangements, unlike the original company who recorded the work.

            I mentioned this nonsense of the EU precisely because it is within my sphere of expertise (such as it is) so I can speak with authority on it. Unlike one or two LL posters I tend, wherever possible, only to write on matters where I have some personal interest or knowledge. it is otiose to pretend to be an expert in areas you have never ventured in and pretend to speak with authority (and I don’t mean you, Jaime.)

          • http://www.facebook.com/people/Mike-Homfray/510980099 Mike Homfray

            But no-one actually has an alternative to continued EU membership at present. There is no other obvious ‘bloc’ to be part of, and given the commitment to being part of a globalised approach, ‘independence’ isn’t feasible even if some find it attractive.

            UKIP seem to think Britain could become part of EFTA without agreeing to any EU rules. Others appear to favour the idea that we could be like Switzerland or Norway even though we have absolutely nothing in common with either country in terms of resources or population.

            In many ways I think the EU has taken the wrong route but I still see no feasible alternative on offer.

          • Hugh

             ”But no-one actually has an alternative to continued EU membership at present.”

            Apart from those countries who aren’t in the EU, so basically the entire world minus 27 members.

          • Hugh

             ”we could be like Switzerland or Norway even though we have absolutely
            nothing in common with either country in terms of resources or
            population.”

            You’re right, we have very little in common with Norway and Switzerland. We’re a far bigger, more powerful and important economic power than either of them and a much more important trading partner to pretty much every member of the EU; we also, I suspect, have a far larger balance of trade deficit with almost every EU member than either of them.

            I’m struggling a trifle to see how these differences would disadvantage us in negotiating our trading position with the EU.

          • Alexwilliamz

            Agreed. Not sure what it would achieve. 

          • Alexwilliamz

            Agreed. Not sure what it would achieve. 

          • jaime taurosangastre candelas

            I think it would achieve a lot, but if you are of the view that our continued membership of the EU is a good thing, I can see how you would be fearful of a referendum.

            To be entirely (I hope) fair to you, I think that the UK’s membership of NATO is a good thing, so I see no value in having a referendum upon it.  And indeed, would prefer there not to be such a referendum, for fear of it going “the wrong way” from my point of view, and certainly would make any argument against such a referendum.

            But I also acknowledge that many others think it is a bad thing, or wasteful, or some other reason they are against it, and would welcome such a referendum.  

            Conceptually, they are the same arguments, and the only thing that may differentiate between them is the strength of public support for either leaving the EU or leaving NATO.

            So, as a point of principle, if “enough” people want such a referendum (particularly with a perception of having been “cheated” before by political conniving and the “weasel words” about what is a treaty and what a constitution), at what point do you personally say “OK, it is better to have a referendum than to continue to ignore what the public wants, and indeed offer party political positions that are universally in favour, thus offering no effective voice at all”.

            Alan is often fierce on the expenses cheating MPs (and probably rightly), but other people have other passions.  For some, it is the EU.

            {EDIT: To be clear, my personal position is against the EU as a political construct, not against the old trading bloc arrangement of the EC, which I think is still a candidate reversionary position for all of Europe after the future political failure of the EU, and which preserves the best while not trying to achieve the impossible}

          • jaime taurosangastre candelas

            I think it would achieve a lot, but if you are of the view that our continued membership of the EU is a good thing, I can see how you would be fearful of a referendum.

            To be entirely (I hope) fair to you, I think that the UK’s membership of NATO is a good thing, so I see no value in having a referendum upon it.  And indeed, would prefer there not to be such a referendum, for fear of it going “the wrong way” from my point of view, and certainly would make any argument against such a referendum.

            But I also acknowledge that many others think it is a bad thing, or wasteful, or some other reason they are against it, and would welcome such a referendum.  

            Conceptually, they are the same arguments, and the only thing that may differentiate between them is the strength of public support for either leaving the EU or leaving NATO.

            So, as a point of principle, if “enough” people want such a referendum (particularly with a perception of having been “cheated” before by political conniving and the “weasel words” about what is a treaty and what a constitution), at what point do you personally say “OK, it is better to have a referendum than to continue to ignore what the public wants, and indeed offer party political positions that are universally in favour, thus offering no effective voice at all”.

            Alan is often fierce on the expenses cheating MPs (and probably rightly), but other people have other passions.  For some, it is the EU.

            {EDIT: To be clear, my personal position is against the EU as a political construct, not against the old trading bloc arrangement of the EC, which I think is still a candidate reversionary position for all of Europe after the future political failure of the EU, and which preserves the best while not trying to achieve the impossible}

          • Hugh

            Annual UK contributions to NATO: c£200 million;
            Annual contribution to the EU: £10 billion.

            Not too hard to distinguish why a referendum might be justified on one and not the other.

          • Alexwilliamz

            I was referring to the whether a referendum should be part of  a Labour party manifesto rather than the merits of a referendum itself. That is a different debate. At the end of the day the people who are most likely to vote based upon an Eu referendum are those very unlikely to vote labour even if it was part of our manifesto. The last thing we need to be worrying about in the next term of government is a referendum campaign followed by dealing with the fall out. Just my opinion admittedly.

  • telemachus

    Worry not.
    Folks are not only protesting but like our message on growth. They like our superstars: Andy Burnham and Ed Balls and also Yvette Cooper.
    The message of the poll needs to sink in to Conference planners, firstly to ensure limelight to the superstars but secondly to frame Miliband’s Conference address to take account of perceptions.
    Come 2015 we will need to find a honourable way of vetoing a 3 way debate. This was bad for Gordon and we must learn.

    • Serbitar

      Yvette Cooper?

    • Hugh

       I’ve never seen any evidence that people like Ed Balls, and some to the contrary. Can you share your source?

    • Alexwilliamz

      Disagree I think a 3 way debate might work in Ed’s favour, that kind of environment will suit his more calm and measured approach. TV might also allow some of his humanity to shine through. Cameron on the other hand could very well come across badly, seeing as he will have to be on the defensive this time, not something he handles well.

    • Alexwilliamz

      Disagree I think a 3 way debate might work in Ed’s favour, that kind of environment will suit his more calm and measured approach. TV might also allow some of his humanity to shine through. Cameron on the other hand could very well come across badly, seeing as he will have to be on the defensive this time, not something he handles well.

  • ovaljason

    No shit! Mark finally acknowledges that EdM is a toxic drag on Labour’s ticket.
    After the hard-left delivered us Foot, Kinnock and then Brown, you’d think that they would have learned their lesson.

  • http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=1197116449 Trevor Sharkey

    This always happens with these polls. In a multi choice question the leader comes out in the 40s. So lets say 45% would vote Labour. Put SIMPLY that means 55% wouldnt. Therefore those 55% in a straight choice between Miliband and Cameron WILL chose Cameron!! Add in the dont knows and hey presto there is your 60%!!

    At the last election 64% of the voters DID NOT vote for Cameron!!!

  • http://twitter.com/petewilson89 Pete Wilson

    If the Party can produce some distinct policy proposals out of conference, we can solidify our poll lead and put some substance to Miliband’s name. The 15-point lead will drop but better a ‘hard’ 5-10 lead than protesters who might not bother come election day. Clegg knows all too well about that.

    Nationalise the railways. Its a break with Blair, something the Coalition would never do and incredibly popular across the country. Once all the services are united, mutualise them as the Coop Party suggests, giving joint ownership between workers and consumers: buy an annual rail card, get dividends and voting rights on certain issues. It would encourage more people to use the rail service, and feed effortlessly into Ed’s theme of predistribution and three way partnerships.

    Scrap Council Tax, Stamp Duty, encourage construction and throw £5 billion at the deficit all in one swoop – a 0.5% land value tax. Far less monolithic than British Rail as far as policy goes and would need good framing but it moves as opposed to adds tax burden, while simultaneously encouraging private industry without expensive stimulus – again, all feeds into predistribution.

  • Daniel Speight

    If we think of Churchill’s ‘modest man’* quote there are a few political party leaders it could fit and some of them became prime minister in spite of their modesty, Attlee at whom it was aimed included. I’m thinking of John Major and I’m now including Ed Miliband as a possible election winner.

    *“Mr. Attlee is a very modest man. Indeed he has a lot to be modest about.”

    Of course the problem is Ed Miliband is a nerd and comes over nerdy as does his brother. But is that such a bad thing? If he has a core belief and is prepared to fight for it then the Labour Party would be so much better off than having another opportunist like Blair.

  • Daniel Speight

    If we think of Churchill’s ‘modest man’* quote there are a few political party leaders it could fit and some of them became prime minister in spite of their modesty, Attlee at whom it was aimed included. I’m thinking of John Major and I’m now including Ed Miliband as a possible election winner.

    *“Mr. Attlee is a very modest man. Indeed he has a lot to be modest about.”

    Of course the problem is Ed Miliband is a nerd and comes over nerdy as does his brother. But is that such a bad thing? If he has a core belief and is prepared to fight for it then the Labour Party would be so much better off than having another opportunist like Blair.

  • Daniel Speight

    If we think of Churchill’s ‘modest man’* quote there are a few political party leaders it could fit and some of them became prime minister in spite of their modesty, Attlee at whom it was aimed included. I’m thinking of John Major and I’m now including Ed Miliband as a possible election winner.

    *“Mr. Attlee is a very modest man. Indeed he has a lot to be modest about.”

    Of course the problem is Ed Miliband is a nerd and comes over nerdy as does his brother. But is that such a bad thing? If he has a core belief and is prepared to fight for it then the Labour Party would be so much better off than having another opportunist like Blair.

  • Monkey_Bach

    Sadly Ed looks more like an Organ Grinder’s monkey than an Organ Grinder himself.

    Miliband doesn’t look like a leader. Eeek. He hasn’t got a leader’s shine or aura if you like. He doesn’t exude confidence, seems to have no fixed beliefs, seem soft and malleable, and has the appearance of a man trawling around for ideas and policies that might play well with the crowd and which are a little Labour-like, at least to a minor degree, if only for the sake of appearances. To be honest Ed Miliband reminds me of a watered down version of the character, Bill McKay, a mediocre left-of-centre politician, played by Robert Redford in Michael Richie’s 1972 film “The Candidate”: the film told the story of a fictional American Presidential candidate who is coached and manipulated to success by ambitious amoral spin doctors and pollsters through a anodyne, vacuous, timid and largely meaningless campaign that eventually sees him win the White House . Eeek!

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Candidate_(1972_film)

    Trouble is when McKay wins, because he never stood for much, he doesn’t know what to do as President when he enters the Oval Office.  In film’s final scene, as McKay escapes his victory party and pulls his closest advisor Lucas into a room while throngs of journalists clamour outside McKay asks Lucas, “What do we do now?”  

    McKay never receives an answer.

    The fictional McKay reminds me too much of the factual Miliband who also seems manipulated, fearful, and seems to stand for little to be apparent or mention. Surely the political son of a political family who has eaten, drunk and breathed politics from his birth until the present day should be able to articulate better some idea of the kind of the country he aspires to see created and for all of us to live in?

    Given the chance what will you do Mr. Miliband?

    Do YOU have ANY answers?

    Eeek!

    • http://twitter.com/petewilson89 Pete Wilson

      Too many Eeeks. It would have been pointless to start lobbing out policy ideas in 2010, the Coalition dominated the media and they would be either terribly half-baked, scraped from Brown’s manifesto, or even both. Miliband has focused on breathing some life into the Party’s structure which by 2010 was ossified beyond belief. Plenty of policy ideas have been thrown around, many with Miliband’s support.

      As we reach mid-term parliament I imagine solid ideas will start to appear, the media and the public have short memories no point shooting your bolt when there’s no one round to see.

      He looks like a nerd granted. He should accept that part of his personality, going he-man would be ridiculous, but it doesn’t mean he can’t be serious. After focus group Blair, bully Brown and debating society Cameron, it might be good to back a different sort of politician.

  • Winston_from_the_Ministry

    Not really. Omnishambles is very much a politico-only meme, and most people who are actually running businesses seem pretty positive despite the woes of the economy.

    Maybe it’s beginning to dawn on people that GDP isn’t everything.

    Aside from that peoples concerns remain muchly the same. There is probably a slight dismay at the Tories inability to really get things moving, but nobody trusts Labour enough to let them get back in a gain, and nobody is really comfortable with the idea of being represented on the world stage by Ed Miliband.

  • AlanGiles

     Are you suggesting, seriously, that Ed Miliband is of the “hard left”?

    I think this accusation will come as something of a shock to the most traditional old Labour supporter and the most eager Progress-ite alike!

  • http://twitter.com/waterwards dave stone

    then

  • http://twitter.com/petewilson89 Pete Wilson

     Brown is not on the left of the party by quite a way, and Kinnock was the man who sucked the poison out of the party created by Militant. If it wasn’t Kinnock it would have been Benn, take your pick.

    On Ed – doesn’t even deserve a response.

  • Mickelmas

    Forget about policies. Voters at elections want the newly elected government to ‘give them a better future’ and will therefore place their ‘x’ next to the party whose leader convinces them that he is the one that will fulfill their aspirations. In 2010 many voters fell for the charms of Cameron and Clegg and were unimpressed with Brown – instance the poll ratings after the TV debates. Two years on Clegg has lost most of his lustre and credibility, due mainly to the lies on tuition fees but Cameron, despite the pain he is inflicting, retains personal support because of his charisma. It remains to be seen if this will be sufficient to get him re-elected despite the economic woes. Ed Miliband, on the otherhand, lacks voter support in both policy and charisma departments. The policies can be developed to convince the electorate but I fear that without a personality transplant Ed (like Gordon) will never appeal to sufficient people to return Labour to power.

  • Jeremy_Preece

    Of course Brown was really hard left wasn’t he? – WHAT!

    I think that what you might be trying to say here is that the trade union vote that tipped the balance from David to Ed, and that David would probably have avoided much of the crticism that Ed gets over a lack of drive and charisma.
    For what it is worth I think that DM would proabaly do what ho says on the packet, it is just that after two years the label on Ed’s packet is still has no words on it yet.  
    The question now is whether Ed is electable.

  • http://twitter.com/RF_McCarthy Roger McCarthy

    I think what we have here is the final result of our abandonment (justified or not) of class politics.

    Up to the 1970s both parties had a solid bedrock of support based fundamentally on class and on ideology.

    With the breakdown of class politics people need new non-ideological reasons to  vote and have increasingly done so based on their perception (however false it may be due to massive media bias) of how ‘strong’ the candidate is.

    So as the predominant media narrative about politics is now one of non-stop crisis management, ‘strength’ has become the number one criteria of many voters who’d clearly prefer to be ruled by a bully than by a wimp however decent and intelligent.

    And much as I like and admire Ed ‘strong’ is not a word that can be associated with him – at least not in the crude easily telegraphed definition of strength which is the only one that can percolate through an irredeemably hostile mass media.

    In fact the only recent Labour leader who did win under these new rules was Tony Blair as by taking Labour far to the right he won the support of key media monopolies and was able to establish his ‘strength’ by ritually attacking and defeating his own party at conference after conference – while at the same time John Major and his hapless successors bumbled from disaster to disaster and exemplified weakness.

    Now the Tories should by rights be in the same state as Major was this stage of the 1992-7 Parliament – in fact a worse state as by late 1994 the economy was definitely improving – but they remain relatively strong because the media has now rallied almost completely back to their support (or in the case of the BBC been utterly cowed and broken – a process which incidentally was initiated by Blair and Brown and of which we are now reaping the whirlwind) and regards a Labour government as far more dangerous to their owners interests than an incompetent Tory one.

    Plus of course the Tories and their media have the Lib Dems to act as convenient scapegoat and in Nick Clegg an ally who can make even Cameron and Osborne look strong and principled. 

    So even if Ed Milband was in fact a true macho man of the people and not the endearingly awkward wonkish figure he actually is we would still have huge problems in communicating that strength through an enemy-dominated media which no longer allows politicians to speak directly to the people but select only those soundbites which reinforce the narrative their owners demand is imposed on the news.

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