Conference Report – Fabians: Six months to Copenhagen

By Tom Ogg

The Fabian Society today held a one day conference looking ahead to the Copenhagen Summit in December, where a new climate change deal to replace the Kyoto Treaty will be discussed. The Secretary of State for climate change, Ed Miliband MP, was the keynote speaker.

Ed emphasised that the key difficulty in the conference in December is the fact that between 1850-2000, the USA and EU were responsible for 60% of carbon emissions. But looking forward, 75% of emissions growth will be from developing countries, and 50% of that from China. Moreover, there are real constraints on all the actors coming together in Copenhagen, he said. The USA needs the Senate to pass treaties with 67 votes out of the hundred senators – but on the other hand, China has five hundred million people living on under a dollar a day. So finding a balance between the interests of developed and developing countries is the crucial paradox and problem to solve.

Ed said that developed countries must show leadership, and must reduce carbon emissions “as far and as fast as possible”. The IPCC has recommended cuts in carbon emissions within the range of 25% to 40%. The UK has committed to 20% unilaterally, but aims for 30% if a global deal on climate change can be achieved. Serious public investment in technology and some kind of international carbon trading – crucial to helping China finance its carbon emissions – are key solutions, he said.

The second key point Ed made was that the politics is not yet right for a serious deal on climate change in December. The sense of a global movement to pressure governments into making a groundbreaking deal is not there, there is not yet enough popular mobilisation, and “no sense of December being a make or break month”. It is certainly better than last year – Obama is serious about climate change (see his new bill in Congress), and the Chinese want to do a deal. But there is no Make Poverty History type campaign to pressure governments into action – Ed wants to see more.

What I found striking about the discussion was the extent to which Ed was supported by the assortment of green campaigners, NGO heads and activists assembled by the Fabians. It was exceptionally refreshing to be in a room with a cabinet minister who was clearly well liked and admired by an audience. How did it come to this? Sure, it was a Fabian conference. But the greens are not easy to please! As one of the activists I spoke to put it to me, they feel Ed “is part of the solution not the problem”. How radically would Labour’s fortunes change if we had more people like Ed Miliband in the cabinet?

More information and details of today’s sessions can be found at Next Left and the hashtag #ccc. You can read Ed Miliband’s speech in full here.