UKIP are not equipped for a breakthrough

By Julian Ware Lane

The Guardian is reporting that UKIP believes it could repeat its European successes at a General Election. I am not so sure. For starters the two elections – general and European – are quite different in a couple of ways. Turnout is lower in European elections (just over half of what a General Election delivers) and Europe is not seen as particularly relevant by voters who therefore cast their votes with less consideration. The recent elections were dominated by two issues, MPs expenses and the economic downturn, and voters expressed their dissatisfaction by voting for the best positioned non-mainstream party. UKIP are not making any predictions, but as the SDP showed in the 1980s, breaking the ‘mould’ is very difficult.

In many ways the recent elections were unusual. There was very little debate on policy; this was very convenient for all but Labour.

The way European elections are organised allows for long-distance campaigning. In Castle Point only Labour and the Conservatives put out localised material, the other parties distributing national material and taking advantage of the freepost. This, and a list system that meant there was not the inconvenience of having to select local candidates, allowed for parties with little local organisation being able to look like a major party. I have not seen UKIP’s membership figures but from what I have seen they are spread very thinly on the ground.

UKIP do not put out anything resembling a full slate of candidates in any of the local elections in my corner of Essex, and managed just two representatives at both the county and European counts. This was better than the Greens (none at either), the BNP (a couple of the county count, none at the European) and the Liberal Democrats (who, despite being second here twenty years ago, could only manage a handful of outsiders at the county count, and none at the European one). Despite our difficulties, there were plenty of those prepared to don the red rosette, and in a naturally Tory landscape their numbers were significant too (although I think we outnumbered them at the European count).

UKIP are a useful outlet for a protest vote, but being electable goes beyond just having your name on the ballot paper. Winning campaigns require teams of people prepared to knock on doors, hold street stalls, and deliver leaflets. UKIP may claim they have a full slate of policies, but they still come across as a single issue party. Those whose concerns are their job, mortgage and pension will justly wonder why they should vote for a party whose major preoccupation is Brussels.

Where their impact will be felt is in Tory marginals. Here jittery Tory candidates may be forced to affect Euro-scepticism, if not outright opposition to the EU. The expense storm has let Cameron off the hook as he has been able to avoid discussing Europe in any depth. A strong UKIP campaign in the run-up to the big event may mean he has to face the elephant in the Tory room. I look forward to that.