A crushing defeat of lasting significance

By Alex Smith / @alexsmith1982

With a swing of 16.5%, Chloe Smith overturned a Labour majority of 5,000+ to gain and a new Tory majority of over 7,000 in Norwich North, a so-called Labour “safe seat” in recent history.

Excuses will no doubt be made and ministers will be herded out to say to the media that this was a “disappointing” result for Labour.

But excuses and disappointment are not enough.

The magnitude of this defeat shows that this was more than just a protest vote and it was more than simply a reaction to the expenses crises – that excuse did not wash after June 4 and it will not wash this time.

Indeed, this was more than a response to the apparently unjust deselection of Ian Gibson. He, too, would have lost.

No, a swing of this proportion – not unlike the one to Labour in the Wirral in 1997 – is a sign of embedded culture change. It shows that the country is ready and willing – if not craving – to vote for a Tory government in substantial numbers.

It is our challenge now to respond to that current desire and accordingly.

Without a drastic and full recalibration of our party’s policies and our party’s message, without a more coherent and cohesive narrative, that Tory government and that huge and self-inflicted defeat will be exactly what we get, and exactly what we deserve.