Election day: updates from Norwich North

By Alex Smith / @alexsmith1982

Throughout the day, I’ll be reporting snippets from the doorstep in Norwich North, and trying to get a sense of what’s happening in today’s by-election.

10:30pm: Sue Whittaker, former group leader for Labour on Norfolk council, says: “unfortunately, the Tories are going to win here.”

8:00pm: @SamTarry says it could be tighter than reports suggest, due to a high turnout and Labour vote holding up in many areas.

5:10pm: Labour Matters have revealed the note sent from Gordon Brown to Chris Ostrowski this week:

“Dear Chris

I am sorry to hear you are unwell. You have fought a great campaign. We are all very proud of you. My best wishes to you.

Gordon.”

4:40pm: Ladbrokes are predicting a Tory majority of 5,197.

4:30pm: Predictions from the ground in Norwich are that Labour will be second at about 23% of the vote, with the Tories taking the seat on about 37%.

4:25pm: @SamTarry says the sun is beating down in Norwich North, and he’s on his 4th round of knock ups.

4:25pm: @TimMontgomerie of ConservativeHome is predicting a majority of 2,195.

3:30pm: Since this morning, Labour’s odds of winning have slipped from 14/1 to 16/1 with Ladbrokes. Meanwhile, the Tories have gone from 20/1-on to 25/1 on in the same time. The bookies are rarely wrong…

3:15pm: KeepRightOnline has predicted the results – completely unscientific, but not unreasonable based on other reports:

Conservatives: 34%
Labour: 30%
Lib Dems: 15%
Greens: 4%.

11:15am: Lib Dem candidate April Pond says she is courting “old Labour voters…let down by what the party has become”.

10:30am: Ladbrokes have opened their books on the result of today’s ballot, and it’s not looking good for Labour; they have the Tories at 20/1 on to win and Labour are only 4/1 to finish fourth or lower:

To win:
Conservatives: 1/20
Labour: 14/1
Liberal Democrats: 20/1
Greens: 33/1
Craig Murray: 50/1
UKIP: 100/1
BNP: 200/1

To finish 2nd:
Labour: 4/6
Liberal Democrats: 9/4
Greens: 5/1
Conservatives: 14/1
Any Other: 16/1

Labour Finishing Position:
1st: 14/1
2nd: 4/6
3rd: 11/4
4th or below : 4/1

10:15am: UKIP aren’t getting the warmest response in the constituency, if this photo just in is anything to go by. Hat-tip @kezdugdale.

10am: Green supporter @RupertRead says “As we in the Greens predicted, the nay-sayers appear to be wrong. Turnout in #norwichnorth is brisk so far. There is excitement in this byelection.”

9am: Andrew Sparrow was in the constituency yesterday and reported that the Lib Dems are working from their own figures, which suggest what Andrew calls a “big-ish” win for the Tories. The figures are based on the Lib Dems own contacts, and so are probably not completely accurate, but they give an early indication of how the Lib Dems, at least, are feeling.

Conservatives: 31.5%
Lib Dems: 24%
Labour: 19.5%
Greens: 11%.

April Pond, the Lib Dem candidate, told Andrew: “It looks to me as if it is very close between us and the Conservatives.”