A hung parliament in 2010 may be like none we’ve seen before

By Michael Calderbank

Paul Burgin’s anxiety at the prospect of a hung parliament is misplaced, and not only because such a situation is obviously preferable to a large Conservative majority. (How many Labour voters would prefer George Osborne as Chancellor of the Exchequer to Vince Cable?).

Of course this is not to deny the difficulties experienced in the Lib-Lab pact of the 1970s. But much of the problem lay in an attitude which sees hung parliaments as a disagreeable hiatus in the “normal” course of majority government. The traditional small c conservative attitudes of the Labour movement have tended to regard such an outcome as a totally abnormal state of affairs. Pluralism and consensus-decision making are regarded as an alien imposition foisted onto the larger party by a junior partner. This attitude has been compounded by the absence of fixed-term parliaments, which undermines the prospects for stable coalition by allowing the larger partner to bounce the country into a quick second election when it is judged expedient to do so – as Harold Wilson did in 1974. This does create an unnecessary element of instability and mutual distrust, but a good deal of the “uncertainty” of which Burgin complains could be eliminated by parties agreeing to set fixed parliamentary terms at the outset.

But what if, instead of viewing a hung parliament as the failure of the electorate to give one party a decisive mandate, we saw such a result as the voters expressing the desire to fundamentally change the working assumptions of our whole political system? What if, rather than a regrettable intermission in the ‘ordinary’ course of a two-party duopoly, we saw a hung parliament (with increased Liberal Democrat representation) as heralding an urgent popular mood in favour of recasting forever the very basis of parliamentary representation and decision-making? Campaigners like Vote For a Change and Anthony Barnett are now actively recommending a tactical vote to maximise the chances of a hung parliament for precisely these reasons.

OK, you might be thinking, but what’s in it for us? Not withstanding the achievements of Labour in office since 1997, many Labour voters have felt that even a succession of sizeable majorities in the Commons has not allowed the party the political space to deliver a bold social democratic policy agenda. The First Past the Post voting system sets a premium on the support of swing voters in the marginal seats of Middle England while votes in traditional ‘heartland’ seats have been taken for granted. At the same time Labour’s base in local government in the South has been catastrophically eroding, endangering our long-term future as a properly national party.

In the event of a hung parliament this time, Labour should have every incentive to seize the opportunity for electoral reform and reshape the whole political space in a way that maximises the chances of our long-term influence in British politics. By contrast, a Conservative majority could allow David Cameron to push through punitive limits on trade union funding, cut the number of MPs in Scotland and Wales, and make it much more difficult for the pendulum to swing back in our direction over the medium term.

But why should we make a better stab at seizing the opportunities a hung parliament presents now than we did in the 70s? Well, for one thing, the fact that Labour has helped to introduce devolved bodies elected by proportional systems in Scotland, Wales and London has meant that the party has become much more familiar at working in a consensual, pluralistic way at a variety of levels. In Scotland, we worked in coalition with the Liberal Democrats and in doing so delivered policies such as free personal care for the elderly which have directly benefited so many of our supporters. Similarly, Labour has successfully worked with Plaid Cymru in the Welsh Assembly to deliver for the people of Wales, and the organisation Progressive London is a testimony to the development of a pluralist political culture in the capital with Labour at its centre.

In the event of a hung parliament we should not be paralysed by the flawed logic of temporary “pacts” but be bold enough to deliver permanent changes to our political system that will forever prevent the Conservatives from gaining an exclusive grip on power when they are opposed by a clear majority of the electorate.

Michael Calderbank is a campaigner at the Labour Campaign for Electoral Reform.