Cameron’s style is more suited to the TV debates – but will there be any memorable moments?

By Alex Smith / @alexsmith1982

So, the debates are a matter of hours away. Gordon Brown and Alastair Campbell and others are hunkered up rehearsing proven techniques for appealing to voters via the Tube. They’ll consider phrasing, punch-lines, soundbites, tembre, eye-level, eye-contact, gesticulations, cadence, suits, shirts, ties, should he wear a pin badge?, opening statements, closing statements, what about make-up?, hair, voice pitch, personal or professional?, smiles, seriousness, calm or passionate?

Or perhaps they won’t. Perhaps they’ll just let these vastly experienced three TV performers get out there and do what they do: make a case on national TV.

There’s a lot to consider in tomorrow’s first ever TV debate in a UK general election, and a lot to worry about for Gordon and those around him. He’s not great on the television. For those who have seen him in the flesh, we’ll know his warmth simply doesn’t translate to air. Where his voice can sound soothing in person, it can sound soporific broadcast over a mic. On the TV, he can come across as clunky, heavy-shouldered and over-bearing. What he says might pick up some traction, but how he says it will be broken up into pieces for days.

Meanwhile, David Cameron will feel he’s made for these events – and Andy Coulson will be confident. These are big, bold, showcase events, and they will be analysed by the commentariat for their style and razzamatazz, rather than any deep policy discussions. Every column inch in every paper – barring perhaps the Mirror – will say Cameron looked good. Judi James, a body language expert, has already told Sky News that Cameron is “channelling Barack Obama” – and looks the most “presidential”. Expect the front pages on Friday to carry enormo-pictures of Cameron sweeping right arm across his body from left to right, or stabbing down with his thumb in his fist, while Gordon Brown looks ruefully down into his rostrum.

Expect to see it, because the pundits and journalists already have a hunch on what’s going to happen, and who’s going to win. Knowing that this environment suits Cameron, the odds are, literally, stacked in the Tory leader’s favour. If you put on a fiver with Boyle Sport for Cameron to come out the benefactor from the debates, you’ll only win £4 back. Put a fiver on Brown, and you’ll treble your money. With Ladbrokes, Brown is the rank outsider to triumph.

Since we’re talking about betting, Ladbrokes also offers odds even that the television audience will be between 10 and 14 million – a huge number. It’s 8-1 on that Cameron will attack Brown on the so-called “jobs tax”; evens that “hard-working families” will get a mention; 2-1 that the words “ordinary middle class background” will be uttered; “double-dip” gets you 5-2; “Obama” 3-1; and any mention of Eton – not a necessary or wise move in my books on Brown’s part – is 7-1. If you want an outside bet, you can get 50-1 that Brown or Cameron will tease that Nick Clegg is “no Charles Kennedy”, a reference to this classic in the US:

So, will there be any moments as memorable or mockable as this?

Or Sarah Palin’s winks, which – amongst other things – showed quite how unsuitable she was for the Vice Presidency?

Will there be any game-changers? I doubt it. The golden goal rule rarely brought a winner. And, with each of the leaders likely to play it safe, I doubt there’ll be anything quite so memorable for its humour as this:

Tim Montgomerie at ConservativeHome has offered his tips to David Cameron for the debates. My tips for Gordon are still as they were last month: let Cameron get heated; stay calm and in control; concentrate on economic policy and the response to recession in a sober and measured way – you’re the statesman, you don’t have to try and act like it.