Poll List: Election wide open after first debate

By Alex Smith / @alexsmith1982

UPDATE: YouGov’s tracker tonight shows: Con 33%, Lab 30%, LDs 29%.

UPDATE: An ICM poll for the Telegraph tomorrow shows Con 34% (-3), Lab 29% (-2) LD 27% (+7). Interestingly, this poll was conducted on April 14th and 15th, largely before the TV debate, and yet still shows a large bounce for the Lib Dems. On a uniform swing, Labour would have 281 seats, to the Tories’ 257, and the Lib Dems are on 81.

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A new ComRes poll for ITN/The Independent also shows the Lib Dems up an impressive and potentially game-changing 8%, with the Tories down four points and Labour down two since an equivalent poll taken the night before the debate.

That leaves just four points between all three main parties – with the Tories on 31%, the Lib Dems on 29% and Labour on 27%. Repeating last night’s YouGov numbers, this poll shows the race has been blown wide open by the first televised debate on Thursday.

Translated to the election on a uniform swing, the new poll would deliver a hung parliament, with Labour as the largest party on 278 seats, the Tories on 238 and the Lib Dems on 103, according to the UK Polling Report.

64% of people agree with the statement that “regardless of how I vote, Nick Clegg should play some part in the next government.” And 68% agree that Clegg “has as much credibility as David Cameron and Gordon Brown”. 53% said that “Clegg’s performance in the debate, and the media coverage, have persuaded me to look more favourably at the Lib Dems”.

Labour are now preferred over the Tories as the party respondents would like to see form the next government, by 28% to the Tories’ 25%. Last week the Tories were preferred by 29% to Labour’s 26%.

ComRes telephoned a random sample of 1,006 adults yesterday and today.