Poll List: Lib Dems gaining in marginals

By Alex Smith / @alexsmith1982

UPDATE: The new ComRes poll for ITV News/The Independent tonight shows the Conservatives up three points on 36%, Labour unchanged on 29% and the Lib Dems down three points on 26%. Translated to a general election on a uniform swing, those numbers would deliver a hung parliament, with the Tories the largest party 51 seats short of a working majority on 275 seats, Labour ten behind on 265 and the Lib Dems on 79 seats.

On the eve of the economy debate, the question was also asked by ComRes: putting your party allegiance aside, who do you trust most to steer Britain’s economy through the current downturn? Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling were preferred, trusted by 31% of respondents; David Cameron and George Osborne were on 28%; Nick Clegg and Vince Cable on 20%.

A new ICM poll will concern Labour activists in marginal seats tonight. The Guardian reports:

“The Liberal Democrats are on course to sharply increase their number of MPs, largely at Labour’s expense, a Guardian/ICM poll suggests today. The unique ICM poll of voters in seats within the Lib Dems’ grasp suggests the party’s vote is climbing more strongly in Labour-held marginal seats than in Conservative ones…In the 42 seats in which the party came second in 2005 and which it could take on a swing of 6% or less, Lib Dem support is now 39%. That is four points ahead of the Conservatives on 35% and 21 points ahead of Labour, on 18%.”

The YouGov daily tracker tonight shows the Tories up three points to 36%, the Lib Dems up three points to 31% and Labour down two points to 27%. YouGov reports that most of its work was done after 11.30am this morning, when Gordon Brown made his “bigoted woman” comment, with sentiment for Brown slipping on the YouGov leaderboard.

Translated to the election, those YouGov numbers would deliver a hung parliament, with Labour as the biggest party and 44 seats short of a working majority on 282 seats, the Tories on 259 seats and the Lib Dems on 78 seats.

A ComRes poll is due at 10pm tonight.