Poll List: Still in hung parliament territory

By Alex Smith /@alexsmith1982

UPDATE: Tonight’s ComRes poll for ITN/The Independent shows the Tories down two points to 32%, the Lib Dems up two to 31% and Labour unchanged on 28%. Translated to the election, that would deliver a hung parliament, with Labour 53 seats short of a working majority on 273 seats, the Tories on 236 and the Lib Dems on 110.

In other figures from the poll, 21% of Labour supporters and 8% of Conservative supporters at the 2005 general election have now switched to the Lib Dems.

72% said they’d prefer a majority government, while 20% said they would prefer a hung parliament. When those who support a majority government were asked who they would prefer to see get a majority, 37% said Conservative, 29% Labour.

Of those who said they would prefer a hung parliament, 27% opted for a Conservative government with Liberal Democrat support, while 56% opted for Labour government with support of the Lib Dems.

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A new ICM poll tonight of likely voters for the Guardian shows there are five points between the three main parties and that opinion remains volatile across different pollsters’ findings.

The poll shows the Tories down two points since yesterday to 33%, the Lib Dems down one point to 30% and Labour up two points to 28%.

Translated to the general election, those numbers would result in a hung parliament, with Labour 58 seats short of a working majority on 275 seats, the Tories on 245 seats and the Lib Dems on 99 seats.

The Guardian reports:

“Conservative support is at the same level as the party achieved in the 2005 general election and would leave the party far off a majority. That will add to anxiety within the Tory campaign.”

And it says:

“Some people who say they support the Lib Dems also say they are far from certain to vote, and some did not vote at the last election.”

Figures for party support were weighted by ICM to reflect the likelihood of each party’s supporters turning out on the day. The paper reports possible minimum and maximum vote shares for the main parties based on the strength of people’s intention to vote: Labour’s current vote range on that marker is between 18% and 33%.

In tonight’s YouGov tracker, the Tories are down one point to 33%, the Lib Dems are down one point to 29% and Labour are unchanged at 28%.

In a YouGov poll of London seats for the Evening Standard today, the Lib-Dems are up from 16% two weeks ago to 28%, while Labour are down four points, from 35 to 31%. That could lead to three London seats changing hands from Labour to the Lib Dems.

A ComRes poll is to follow at 10pm.