The third debate: Live Blog

By Alex Smith / @alexsmith1982

DAVID CAMERON’S UNANSWERED QUESTIONS:

On inheritance tax:

2050 – Gordon Brown asks: why does David want to give an inheritance tax cut to 3,000 families? NO ANSWER

2052 – Gordon Brown asks how David Cameron could justify an inheritance tax cut whilst cutting child tax credits and asked why Cameron was going to give 3,000 people a tax cut. NO ANSWER

2105 – Cameron “didn’t answer the question on inheritance tax. Why is he cutting corporation tax on banks?” NO ANSWER

On corporation tax:

2103 – Gordon Brown asked David Cameron why he was planning to cut corporation tax for banks. NO ANSWER

2105- Gordon Brown asks why the Tories would cut corporation tax cut by 3%. NO ANSWER

2115 – Gordon Brown asks David Cameron: why is he cutting corporation tax on banks? NO ANSWER

YouGov’s instant poll: Cameron wins on 41%, Nick Clegg on 32%, Gordon Brown on 25%

Channel 4 News’ instant poll: Brown wins on 44%, Clegg on 42%, Cameron on 13%.

So, who won?

On LabourList, I’ve always said that this election is about the key issues: jobs, the economy, housing, immigration. This was a good debate, and one which showed Gordon Brown’s strong hand on those biggest issues.

Theresa May just told Sky News that David Cameron had the answers. That’s plainly not true. On question after question, on manufacturing and on taxation, Cameron couldn’t answer Gordon Brown’s questions. Meanwhile, Brown focused on those big issues. He was clunky at times, because he’s heavy on the detail. But that’s what Britain needs.

When Brown spoke about his vision of care from cradle to the grave, he even soared. When he spoke about Sure Start centres, when he spoke off the cuff rather than off the cribsheet, he was at his most comfortable and his most authoritative. Though it was still too rare tonight, there were times in the debate where Gordon Brown delivered a TED performance.

Nick Clegg gave his weakest performance of the three debates tonight. On housing, he had no real policies, just complaints. On immigration, his attacks on Cameron were effective, but his amnesty too easily torn apart by Brown. His attempts to show himself as different to the other two men were over-rehearsed and over-repeated, and grating.

22:00 Brown’s closing statement says the debates show there are big differences between the parties.

21:50 Brown: I’m interested in social mobility. You’ve got to encourage people to stay at school and get qualifications.

21:40 Here’s the Guardian’s sentiment after the second half hour:

21:20 Gordon has shown a strong performance so far. He is giving detailed answers himself, while asking questions of Cameron and Clegg which they cannot answer. Meanwhile, both Cameron and Clegg are beginning to melt under the lights.

21:20 Here’s the Guardian’s reaction tracker after the first half hour, on which people are expressing their sentiment for the leaders so far:

20:15 Ed Miliband has tweeted:

So Cameron would cut the deficit more quickly, cut taxes and invest more in science and apprenticeships. Come off it….

21:00 On the Tories’ child tax credits, the IFS said this week:

“Information made available to us by the Conservative Party is clear that its intended policy is to reduce the threshold at which the family element of the child tax credit starts to be withdrawn from £50,000 to £40,000.

The family element of the child tax credit is currently worth £545 per year to all families with dependent children with incomes below £50,000 a year. It is withdrawn at a rate of £1 for every £15 of income above this level, meaning that families with incomes above £58,175 do not benefit at all. Families whose joint incomes are below £40,000 would be unaffected by the Conservatives’ policy, those with incomes between £40,000 and £48,175 would lose some of their tax credits, and those with incomes above this level would lose all their tax credits. The maximum loss in cash terms would be £545 a year for those families with incomes between £48,175 and £50,000.

The description of the policy in the Conservative manifesto does not contain any suggestion that those with incomes below £50,000 would lose out, and therefore seems incomplete at best and misleading at worst.”

21:00 Gordon is giving a strong show in telling his story about how angry he was when bankers told him all they had was a “cashflow problem”.

20:55 Gaby Hinsliff and Charlie Whelan are both irritated at Nick Clegg’s “here we go again” line. And he’s done it again — trying to set himself apart from partisan politicians makes him look like a very partisan politician.

20:55 Brown says:

“How can David possibly justify an inheritance tax cut for millionaires when he wants to cut child tax credits? He’s going to give [the richest] £200,000 a year. I’ve got to speak out about this, because it’s simply unfair and immoral.”

20:50 Gordon Brown’s opening statement in full was:

“There’s a lot to this job and as you saw yesterday I don’t get all of it right. But I do know how to run the economy in good times and in bad. When the banks collapsed I took immediate action to stop crisis becoming calamity and to stop the recession becoming a depression, and as a result of that Britain is now on the road to recovery. But as we meet tonight, economies in Europe are in peril. And there is a risk of dragging us into recession. So I’m determined that nothing will happen in Britain that will put us back into that position. And I want to set out my plan and why this year is so important. Support the economy now, and you will ensure that there are jobs and a recovery and ensure that we can have the resources for deficit reduction. Shrink the economy now as the Conservatives would do and they risk your jobs, your living standards and tax credits. So it’s not my future that matters, it’s your future that’s on the ballot paper next Thursday and I am the one to fight for your future.”

20:45 This could end up going back and forward between Brown’s line “we mustn’t cut spending now” and Cameron’s “we must”. Nick Clegg says we should move on from political pointscoring: he’s playing that same card of trying to stand out from the crowd — it won’t work so well this time as during the first debate, as it just looks like political pointscoring. Brown says “I do fear a Conservative emergency budget”.

20:40 David’s got it wrong on the economy, Brown says.

20:40 Brown: “Let us support the economy until the recovery is assured.”

20:45 Clegg says it would be a good thing to get all chancellors and shadow chancellors together with the Bank of England to spell out the severity of spending cuts – but not until after the election.

20:40 Brown says:

“We are not going to allow the frontline NHS or schools or police services to be cut. But I do say one thing that is crucial: don’t believe that we should fail to support the economy this year.”

20:30 In his opening statement, Gordon Brown says:

“There’s a lot to this job, and as you saw yesterday, I don’t get all of it right, but I do know how to run the economy, in good times and bad…Britain is on the road to recovery…but as we meet tonight, economies in Europe are in peril. Support the economy now, and we will ensure the recovery. Shrink the economy now, and you risk jobs and tax credits. I’m the one to fight for your future.”

20:30 Sky News‘ Ruth Barnett is in spin alley:

20:25 Here’s how our joint debate watch party is shaping up in London…with five minutes to go before kick off:

20:20 Our debate LiveChat with Left Foot Forward, the New Statesman and Liberal Conspiracy is now live — join in here.

20:20 Peter Mandelson has given a quick interview to In the Campaign ahead as he sits down to the debate:

“It’s going to be a very big moment…the public will be watching very intently, not least because of the media overkill and shenanigans of yesterday. A lot of attention will be focussed on Gordon. I think he’ll rise to that — he’s fairly fearless. What he has to say about the economy, how far we’ve taken the economy, and reminding people what’s at stake in taking the wrong decisions at this point in the recovery will get home to people. I think that will give people a lot to think about in the coming week.”

20:00 Another picture of our joint event in London tonight:

19:50 George Osborne has mysteriously pulled out of BBC Question Time tonight. Conservative HQ has denied he was ever due to appear. A lie, say Paul Waugh and James Macintyre.

So, where is George Osborne?

19:45 Douglas Alexander has just sent an email to Labour supporters, launching tonight’s Debate Dashboard on the Labour website and a new Word of Mouth app. Douglas said:

“Let’s be clear – tonight’s Leaders’ debate on the economy is a huge opportunity to show the country the facts. Labour has shown that it can manage the economy in good times and in the bad times of the global economic crisis. It was Gordon Brown that had the experience, judgement and substance to lead Britain from recession to recovery. Tonight is our chance to prove it.”

19:40 John Prescott has given a good speech today about the British people “forgiving mistakes, especially when they’re acknowledged” in Rochdale:

19:25 Our first photo from our event in London tonight, of Young supporters working the phones:

Welcome to tonight’s debate Live Blog. Let’s start, as last week, with the polls:

The YouGov tracker tonight shows the Tories unchanged on 34%, the Lib Dems down three points to 28% and Labour unchanged on 27%. Gordon Brown’s comment yesterday appears to have had no impact on the polls – at least not yet.

In an Ipsos-Mori poll that I tweeted before I went door-knocking this afternoon, Labour are in a strong position in the key marginals. The poll shows Labour ahead by three points on 38%, the Tories on 35% and the Lib Dems down at 21%. That’s a swing of 5.5% to the Tories since 2005.

71% of adults in those marginals now say that they are absolutely certain to vote next Thursday and, interestingly, 46% say they may change their mind on who they will vote for before then. Ipsos-Mori says:

“Of Liberal Democrats who might change their minds, more think it would be to vote Labour (52%) than Conservative (33%), potentially strengthening Labour’s lead here.”